McKale Center at ALKEME Arena · at Arizona
Closing line
ARIZ -31.5✓ SDST covered by 3.5
ARIZ -31.5✓ SDST covered by 3.5Closing total159.5Over by 10.5
 SDST | This season | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| 4-7 | Record | 12-0 |
| 5-6 | ATS | 7-5 |
| 5-6 | O/U | 6-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: SDST 63–93 ARIZ · ✓ ARIZ (100%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SDST | 35 | 36 | 71 |
| ARIZ | 51 | 48 | 99 |
1st half: SDST 35, ARIZ 51 (ARIZ by 16). The model had ARIZ by 17.8 and a total of 72.9 (actual 86).
Team stats
| SDST | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-64 41% | Field goals | 33-62 53% |
| 10-22 45% | 3-pointers | 9-23 39% |
| 9-17 53% | Free throws | 24-31 77% |
| 30 9 off | Rebounds | 45 12 off |
| 16 | Assists | 26 |
| 8 | Steals | 9 |
| 3 | Blocks | 8 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 18 |
Players
| SDST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Jackson G | 31 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 7-16 | 3-10 |
| Joe Sayler G | 29 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2-10 | 1-3 |
| Kalen Garry G | 27 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 8-11 | 4-5 |
| Matthew Mors F | 22 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-2 |
| Alec Squires C | 15 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Damon Wilkinson F | 25 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 3-8 | 0-0 |
| Bubz Alvarez G | 20 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Caleb Delzell F | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Luke Haertle G | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Rogers G | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Davis Kern, Jadyn Cascio Jensen, Andrell Burton Jr., Trey Buchanan
| ARIZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koa Peat F | 30 | 19 | 14 | 3 | 7-12 | 1-2 |
| Jaden Bradley G | 29 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 3-7 | 2-4 |
| Ivan Kharchenkov F | 27 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5-9 | 2-4 |
| Brayden Burries G | 26 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 4-9 | 2-6 |
| Motiejus Krivas C | 23 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Anthony Dell'Orso G | 25 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 3-9 | 1-5 |
| Tobe Awaka F | 18 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Dwayne Aristode F | 17 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Sidi Gueye C | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Evan Nelson G | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Jackson Cook, Mabil Mawut, Addison Arnold, Bryce James, Sven Djopmo, Jackson Francois
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketARIZ -31.5
ModelARIZ -29.8
Model edgeSDST +1.7
W SDST covered
Total
Market159.5
Model155.7
Model edgeUnder 3.8
L Over
Projected score
SDST 62.9 · ARIZ 92.8
SDST 71 · ARIZ 99
Win probability
ARIZ 100%
1st half
Spread
ARIZ -17.8
ARIZ -16.0
Total
72.9
86 points
Projected score
SDST 27.6 · ARIZ 45.3
SDST 35 · ARIZ 51
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARIZ -31.5
no move
CloseARIZ -31.5
No change since the open
Total
Open157.5
▲ 2
Close159.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
SDST +2500 · ARIZ -9000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARIZ -31.5 · unchangedmodel ARIZ -30
model ARIZ -30
Opened 157.5 · closed 159.5 · moved 2 upmodel 155.5
model 155.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SDST | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| ARIZ | 10-0 100% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
S Dakota St
11 games played
Straight up
4-7
36% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-6
45% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MRMK | W 75-66 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 9 | @ UNI | L 58-65 | +10.5 | W +3.5 | 150.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 12 | @ ORE | L 69-83 | +16.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 21 | vs GAST | W 105-58 | -12.5 | W +34.5 | 143.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 25 | vs UVU | L 52-75 | +1.5 | L −21.5 | 151.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 26 | vs UCI | L 52-64 | +2.5 | L −9.5 | 144.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 3 | @ NAU | W 75-62 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 148.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 6 | vs IDHO | L 81-84 | -5.5 | L −8.5 | 147.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 9 | @ BALL | W 68-64 | -5.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 15 | vs WYO | L 72-87 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 149.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 19 | @ MILW | L 87-88 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | O 175 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMRMK
MRMKW 75-66
+2.5
9
@UNI
UNIL 58-65
+3.5
12
@ORE
OREL 69-83
+2.5
21
vsGAST
GASTW 105-58
+34.5
25
vsUVU
UVUL 52-75
−21.5
26
vsUCI
UCIL 52-64
−9.5
3
@NAU
NAUW 75-62
+10.5
6
vsIDHO
IDHOL 81-84
−8.5
9
@BALL
BALLW 68-64
−1.5
15
vsWYO
WYOL 72-87
−11.5
19
@MILW
MILWL 87-88
−2.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMRMK
MRMKW 75-66
−2.5
9
@UNI
UNIL 58-65
−27.5
12
@ORE
OREL 69-83
+6.5
21
vsGAST
GASTW 105-58
+19.5
25
vsUVU
UVUL 52-75
−24.5
26
vsUCI
UCIL 52-64
−28.5
3
@NAU
NAUW 75-62
−11.5
6
vsIDHO
IDHOL 81-84
+17.5
9
@BALL
BALLW 68-64
−10.5
15
vsWYO
WYOL 72-87
+9.5
19
@MILW
MILWL 87-88
+23.5
over 5under 6avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Arizona
12 games played
Straight up
12-0
100% wins
Against the spread
7-5
58% covers · avg +4.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-6
50% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FLA | W 93-87 | +3.5 | W +9.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UTU | W 93-67 | -33.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 11 | vsNAU | W 84-49 | -35.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 14 | vs UCLA | W 69-65 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 19 | @ CONN | W 71-67 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs DEN | W 103-73 | -32.5 | L −2.5 | 154.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 29 | vs NORF | W 98-61 | -35.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs AUB | W 97-68 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs ALA | W 96-75 | -2.5 | W +18.5 | 178.5 | U 171 |
| Dec 16 | vs ACU | W 96-62 | -34.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 20 | vs SDSU | W 68-45 | -13.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | U 113 |
| Dec 22 | vs BCU | W 107-71 | -39.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | O 178 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFLA
FLAW 93-87
+9.5
7
vsUTU
UTUW 93-67
−7.5
11
vsNAU
NAUW 84-49
−0.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 69-65
+2.5
19
@CONN
CONNW 71-67
+8.5
24
vsDEN
DENW 103-73
−2.5
29
vsNORF
NORFW 98-61
+1.5
6
vsAUB
AUBW 97-68
+17.5
13
vsALA
ALAW 96-75
+18.5
16
vsACU
ACUW 96-62
−0.5
20
vsSDSU
SDSUW 68-45
+9.5
22
vsBCU
BCUW 107-71
−3.5
covered 7didn’t cover 5avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFLA
FLAW 93-87
+15.5
7
vsUTU
UTUW 93-67
−2.5
11
vsNAU
NAUW 84-49
−30.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 69-65
−19.5
19
@CONN
CONNW 71-67
−18.5
24
vsDEN
DENW 103-73
+21.5
29
vsNORF
NORFW 98-61
+12.5
6
vsAUB
AUBW 97-68
+2.5
13
vsALA
ALAW 96-75
−7.5
16
vsACU
ACUW 96-62
+12.5
20
vsSDSU
SDSUW 68-45
−40.5
22
vsBCU
BCUW 107-71
+23.5
over 6under 6avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
S Dakota St
4-7 overall · 0-0 in conference · Summit League
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Milwaukee87–88
- Lvs Wyoming72–87
- W@ Ball State68–64
- Lvs Idaho81–84
- W@ N Arizona75–62
A week or more of rest.
Arizona
12-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Bethune107–71
- Wvs San Diego St68–45
- Wvs Abilene Chrstn96–62
- Wvs Alabama96–75
- Wvs Auburn97–68
A week or more of rest.