Winthrop Eagles at Arkansas Razorbacks: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 8:00 PM ETBud Walton Arena · at Arkansas

#205WINWinthrop83final

Final

#18ARKArkansas AP #2184▲ winner

Closing lineARK -23.5✓ WIN covered by 22.5

Closing total168.5Under by 1.5

Season records: Winthrop and Arkansas
WIN	This season	ARK
2-2	Record	3-1
3-1	ATS	2-2
2-2	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WIN 73–91 ARK · ✓ ARK (94%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WIN	41	42	83
ARK	43	41	84

1st half: WIN 41, ARK 43 (ARK by 2). The model had ARK by 10.6 and a total of 76.8 (actual 84).

Team stats

WIN		ARK
32-67 48%	Field goals	29-58 50%
15-32 47%	3-pointers	6-17 35%
4-6 67%	Free throws	20-22 91%
30 8 off	Rebounds	33 7 off
18	Assists	13
3	Steals	5
2	Blocks	8
10	Turnovers	9
20	Fouls	13
34	Points in paint	40
9	Fast-break points	16

Players

WIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Daylen Berry G	33	11	2	2	4-13	2-6
Kareem Rozier G	31	23	2	5	8-11	7-10
Kody Clouet G	24	16	4	1	6-9	4-6
Logan Duncomb C	22	13	4	2	6-10	0-0
Isaiah Wilson G	12	0	0	2	0-2	0-1
Bench
Seifeldin Hendawy G	22	6	4	1	3-5	0-1
Josh Meo G	17	4	1	0	1-5	0-2
Ed Nnamoko F	12	2	5	1	1-5	0-0
Pharrell Boyogueno G	12	5	3	1	2-4	1-3
Tommy Kamarad F	9	3	2	3	1-3	1-3
Tai Hamilton F	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kaleb Evans, Braylhan Thomas, Henry Harrison, Cam Christy

ARK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Trevon Brazile F	35	14	8	2	5-6	0-0
Darius Acuff Jr. G	33	12	2	5	3-10	2-4
Karter Knox G	25	9	3	1	3-7	1-2
DJ Wagner G	18	2	1	1	0-5	0-2
Malique Ewin F	7	2	3	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Meleek Thomas G	34	26	3	3	10-20	3-8
Nick Pringle F	28	13	7	0	5-5	0-0
Billy Richmond III G	20	6	1	1	2-3	0-1

Did not play: Elmir Dzafic, Karim Rtail, Paulo Semedo, Ayden Kelley, Jaden Karuletwa, Amere Brown, Isaiah Sealy

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ARK -23.5	ARK -17.7	WIN +5.8	W WIN covered
Total	168.5	163.9	Under 4.6	W Under
Projected score	—	WIN 73.1 · ARK 90.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ARK -10.6	ARK -2.0
1H total	76.8	84
1H projected score	WIN 33.1 · ARK 43.7	WIN 41 · ARK 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIN WWLW	3-1	75%	1-1	1-0
ARK WLWL	2-2	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: WIN away, as underdog; ARK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIN UOUO	2-2	50%	2-2
ARK OUUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WINlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
ARKlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Winthrop

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsQUC	W 81-74	-3.5	W +3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 7	@GMU	L 90-96	+9.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 11	@CCU	L 66-72	-2.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMER	W 105-69	-2.5	W +33.5	162.5	O 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

+3.5

GMU

L 90-96

+3.5

CCU

L 66-72

−8.5

MER

W 105-69

+33.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

−8.5

GMU

L 90-96

+39.5

CCU

L 66-72

−27.5

MER

W 105-69

+11.5

over 2under 2avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Arkansas

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSOU	W 109-77	-26.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 186
Nov 8	@MSU	L 66-69	+2.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 11	vsCARK	W 93-56	-35.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 149
Nov 14	vsSAM	W 79-75	-24.5	L −20.5	158.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SOU

W 109-77

+5.5

MSU

L 66-69

−0.5

CARK

W 93-56

+1.5

SAM

W 79-75

−20.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SOU

W 109-77

+35.5

MSU

L 66-69

−20.5

CARK

W 93-56

−9.5

SAM

W 79-75

−4.5

over 1under 3avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Winthrop @ Arkansas

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Winthrop

Arkansas

Winthrop

Arkansas