Amerant Bank Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
FSU -12.5✓ MASS covered by 20.5
FSU -12.5✓ MASS covered by 20.5Closing total165.5Over by 32.5
 MASS | This season | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | Record | 5-4 |
| 5-5 | ATS | 5-4 |
| 5-5 | O/U | 3-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MASS 75–85 FSU · ✗ FSU (81%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MASS | 43 | 60 | 103 |
| FSU | 47 | 48 | 95 |
1st half: MASS 43, FSU 47 (FSU by 4). The model had FSU by 6.0 and a total of 74.9 (actual 90).
Team stats
| MASS | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 38-71 54% | Field goals | 32-72 44% |
| 12-22 55% | 3-pointers | 12-41 29% |
| 15-21 71% | Free throws | 19-23 83% |
| 37 12 off | Rebounds | 39 15 off |
| 23 | Assists | 19 |
| 8 | Steals | 7 |
| 1 | Blocks | 4 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 20 | Fouls | 20 |
| 48 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| MASS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Hankins-Sanford F | 32 | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10-16 | 1-1 |
| Leonardo Bettiol F | 29 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 9-12 | 0-0 |
| Danny Carbuccia G | 28 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 2-7 | 0-1 |
| Marcus Banks Jr. G | 27 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 6-12 | 4-9 |
| Jayden Ndjigue G | 18 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| K'Jei Parker G | 26 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 7-11 | 6-9 |
| Dimitri Clerc F | 19 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Donovan Brown G | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Dwayne Wimbley Jr. F | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Luka Damjanac, Isaiah Placide, Bilal Osman, CJ Outlaw, Josh Engel, Rollie Castineyra
| FSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert McCray V G | 35 | 21 | 8 | 11 | 9-16 | 0-5 |
| Lajae Jones G | 27 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 3-10 | 1-6 |
| Martin Somerville G | 25 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 3-11 | 3-10 |
| Chauncey Wiggins F | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Alier Maluk F | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kobe MaGee G | 21 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 4-9 | 4-9 |
| AJ Swinton F | 18 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Cam Miles G | 16 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Shah Muhammad F | 15 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Thomas Bassong F | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Alex Steen F | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Max Garcia-Plata, Jalen Crawford, Xavier Osceola
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketFSU -12.5
ModelFSU -10.2
Model edgeMASS +2.3
W MASS covered
Total
Market165.5
Model160.0
Model edgeUnder 5.5
L Over
Projected score
MASS 74.9 · FSU 85.1
MASS 103 · FSU 95
Win probability
FSU 81%
1st half
Spread
FSU -6.0
FSU -4.0
Total
74.9
90 points
Projected score
MASS 34.4 · FSU 40.4
MASS 43 · FSU 47
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFSU -9.5
3 → FSU
CloseFSU -12.5
3 pts toward FSU
Total
Open158.5
▲ 7
Close165.5
Up 7 since the open
Moneyline
MASS +625 · FSU -950
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FSU -9.5 · closed FSU -12.5 · moved 3 toward FSUmodel FSU -10
model FSU -10
Opened 158.5 · closed 165.5 · moved 7 upmodel 160
model 160
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MASS | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| FSUlast 9 | 5-4 56% | 5-4 56% | 3-6 33% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MASS 0–1 FSUFSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MASS 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024-25 | FSU 92 vs MASS 59 | MASS +5.5 | FSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UMass
10 games played
Straight up
7-3
70% wins
Against the spread
5-5
50% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-5
50% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MRSH | L 72-78 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs UALB | W 83-62 | -9.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 13 | vs LEM | W 94-80 | -16.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 16 | vs CCSU | W 84-77 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 21 | vs COFC | L 65-69 | +3.5 | L −0.5 | 161.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 22 | vs GB | L 75-79 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 24 | vs ORST | W 73-65 | +3.5 | W +11.5 | 149.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 3 | vs HARV | W 78-71 | -5.5 | W +1.5 | 143.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 6 | vs UML | W 80-60 | -11.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 10 | vs BC | W 76-74 | +1.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMRSH
MRSHL 72-78
−10.5
8
vsUALB
UALBW 83-62
+11.5
13
vsLEM
LEMW 94-80
−2.5
16
vsCCSU
CCSUW 84-77
−5.5
21
vsCOFC
COFCL 65-69
−0.5
22
vsGB
GBL 75-79
−9.5
24
vsORST
ORSTW 73-65
+11.5
3
vsHARV
HARVW 78-71
+1.5
6
vsUML
UMLW 80-60
+8.5
10
vsBC
BCW 76-74
+3.5
covered 5didn’t cover 5avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMRSH
MRSHL 72-78
−2.5
8
vsUALB
UALBW 83-62
−10.5
13
vsLEM
LEMW 94-80
+20.5
16
vsCCSU
CCSUW 84-77
+16.5
21
vsCOFC
COFCL 65-69
−27.5
22
vsGB
GBL 75-79
+7.5
24
vsORST
ORSTW 73-65
−11.5
3
vsHARV
HARVW 78-71
+5.5
6
vsUML
UMLW 80-60
−15.5
10
vsBC
BCW 76-74
+6.5
over 5under 5avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Florida St
9 games played
Straight up
5-4
56% wins
Against the spread
5-4
56% covers · avg −4.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-6
33% overs · avg −4.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs ALCN | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs ALST | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ FLA | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTM | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs GASO | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs CSUB | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs TA&M | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs UGA | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | vs HOU | L 67-82 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
+7.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
+3.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−37.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
−35.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
−2.5
covered 5didn’t cover 4avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
−26.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
−5.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
−11.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−20.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
+3.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
+0.5
over 3under 6avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UMass
7-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Boston College76–74
- Wvs UMass Lowell80–60
- Wvs Harvard78–71
- Wvs Oregon St73–65
- Lvs Green Bay75–79
3 days since their last game.
Florida St
5-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Houston67–82
- Lvs Georgia73–107
- Lvs Texas A&M59–95
- Wvs Bakersfield89–59
- Wvs GA Southern98–72
A week or more of rest.