Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners at Florida State Seminoles: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 7:00 PM ETTucker Center · at Florida St

Final

#81FSUFlorida St89▲ winner

Closing lineFSU -26.5✓ FSU covered by 3.5

Closing total159.5Under by 11.5

Season records: Bakersfield and Florida St
CSUB	This season	FSU
2-3	Record	4-1
2-3	ATS	4-1
3-2	O/U	1-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CSUB 67–90 FSU · ✓ FSU (98%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CSUB	24	35	59
FSU	35	54	89

1st half: CSUB 24, FSU 35 (FSU by 11). The model had FSU by 13.7 and a total of 73.5 (actual 59).

Team stats

CSUB		FSU
21-54 39%	Field goals	29-65 45%
1-10 10%	3-pointers	8-32 25%
16-26 62%	Free throws	23-29 79%
37 13 off	Rebounds	38 15 off
11	Assists	16
8	Steals	13
2	Blocks	7
28	Turnovers	17
22	Fouls	23
34	Points in paint	42
8	Fast-break points	14

Players

CSUB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tom Mark F	32	6	10	4	2-7	1-3
Dailin Smith G	25	7	0	0	2-10	0-4
AJ George G	25	9	6	4	3-7	0-0
Ronald Jessamy F	24	14	10	1	6-13	0-1
CJ Hardy G	19	2	1	1	1-2	0-0
Bench
Kadar Waller G	20	2	1	1	1-1	0-0
Jaden Alexander G	17	6	3	0	0-4	0-1
Caleb McCarty F	16	10	6	0	5-7	0-0
Mike Price G	15	1	0	0	0-2	0-1
Bentley Waller G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Dylan Purnell G	3	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
TJ James Jr. G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Colin Darby, Pierre Geneste Jr.

FSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Lajae Jones G	25	5	6	2	2-6	0-4
Robert McCray V G	24	14	1	4	5-11	0-2
Chauncey Wiggins F	23	17	6	0	5-10	3-8
Kobe MaGee G	23	2	2	1	0-4	0-4
Alex Steen F	19	13	10	0	5-8	0-0
Bench
Martin Somerville G	23	14	3	1	5-10	4-8
Thomas Bassong F	17	5	2	0	2-5	0-1
Cam Miles G	17	9	0	7	3-7	1-4
AJ Swinton F	14	4	4	1	0-2	0-1
Shah Muhammad F	11	6	1	0	2-2	0-0
Alier Maluk F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jalen Crawford G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Max Garcia-Plata, Xavier Osceola

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FSU -26.5	FSU -22.9	CSUB +3.6	L FSU covered
Total	159.5	157.0	Under 2.5	W Under
Projected score	—	CSUB 67.1 · FSU 90

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FSU -13.7	FSU -11.0
1H total	73.5	59
1H projected score	CSUB 29.9 · FSU 43.6	CSUB 24 · FSU 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSUB LWWLL	2-3	40%	1-2	1-2
FSU WWWLW	4-1	80%	3-1	3-1

Venue/role: CSUB away, as underdog; FSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSUB UUOOO	3-2	60%	2-3
FSU OUUUU	1-4	20%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUBlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
FSUlast 5	4-1 80%	4-1 80%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bakersfield

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +8.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CAL	L 60-87	+15.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 147
Nov 11	vsWIU	W 74-58	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 14	@MISS	L 60-82	+23.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 17	@PRST	L 80-93	+8.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 173
Nov 22	vsMVSU	W 86-70	-21.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−11.5

WIU

W 74-58

+8.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

PRST

L 80-93

−4.5

MVSU

W 86-70

−5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−0.5

WIU

W 74-58

−9.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

PRST

L 80-93

+31.5

MVSU

W 86-70

+17.5

over 3under 2avg +8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Florida St

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +6.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsALCN	W 108-76	-27.5	W +4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 7	vsALST	W 101-64	-24.5	W +12.5	166.5	U 165
Nov 11	@FLA	L 76-78	+17.5	W +15.5	180.5	U 154
Nov 18	vsUTM	W 87-73	-19.5	L −5.5	165.5	U 160
Nov 21	vsGASO	W 98-72	-18.5	W +7.5	175.5	U 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ALCN

W 108-76

+4.5

ALST

W 101-64

+12.5

FLA

L 76-78

+15.5

UTM

W 87-73

−5.5

GASO

W 98-72

+7.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ALCN

W 108-76

+27.5

ALST

W 101-64

−1.5

FLA

L 76-78

−26.5

UTM

W 87-73

−5.5

GASO

W 98-72

−5.5

over 1under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bakersfield @ Florida St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Bakersfield

Florida St

Bakersfield

Florida St