San Diego Toreros vs California Baptist Lancers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 6:30 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

#146USDSan Diego61final

Final

#203CBUCA Baptist76▲ winner

Closing lineCBU -7.5✓ CBU covered by 7.5

Closing total146.5Under by 9.5

Season records: San Diego and CA Baptist
USD	This season	CBU
2-2	Record	5-0
2-2	ATS	2-3
1-3	O/U	1-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: USD 70–77 CBU · ✓ CBU (72%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
USD	39	22	61
CBU	40	36	76

1st half: USD 39, CBU 40 (CBU by 1). The model had CBU by 3.8 and a total of 68.9 (actual 79).

Team stats

USD		CBU
25-54 46%	Field goals	23-51 45%
3-22 14%	3-pointers	8-21 38%
8-13 62%	Free throws	22-28 79%
21 1 off	Rebounds	42 11 off
17	Assists	11
8	Steals	7
4	Blocks	1
12	Turnovers	17
22	Fouls	15
40	Points in paint	30
13	Fast-break points	7

Players

USD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ty-Laur Johnson G	35	21	3	3	10-16	0-3
Toneari Lane G	29	14	3	0	6-8	2-4
Vuk Boskovic F	25	1	3	6	0-4	0-2
Juanse Gorosito G	16	0	5	0	0-2	0-2
Emmanuel Callas G	6	0	0	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Adrian McIntyre G	30	8	2	6	2-5	0-1
D'Arrae Goodwin F	22	9	1	0	4-9	1-5
Assane Diop F	15	2	2	1	1-1	0-0
Dominique Ford G	13	4	0	0	1-3	0-2
Tim Moore Jr. F	9	2	1	1	1-4	0-3

Did not play: Brandon Benjamin, Caleb Versher, Piotr Winkowski, Boden Grant, Nick Del Bosque, Gavin Ripp, Kjay Bradley, Josh Hecht, Neel Beniwal, Alejandro Aviles

CBU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jordan Muller G	39	22	0	3	6-11	3-6
Martel Williams G	27	20	3	1	7-15	1-3
Monty Bowser G	26	5	6	1	1-8	0-5
Devon Malcolm G	22	7	4	1	2-6	1-3
Thomas Ndong F	17	3	8	1	1-2	0-0
Bench
Jonathan Griman F	28	5	10	1	2-3	0-0
Bradey Henige F	23	5	6	2	1-2	0-0
Jalen Dollar G	18	9	2	1	3-4	3-4

Did not play: Nate Garcia, Chase Mayo Harmon, Miles Daniels, Rene D'Amelio, OJ Blankson, Mouhamadou Dioum, Dominique Daniels Jr., Jayden Jackson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CBU -7.5	CBU -6.5	USD +1.0	L CBU covered
Total	146.5	147.1	Over 0.6	L Under
Projected score	—	USD 70.3 · CBU 76.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CBU -3.8	CBU -1.0
1H total	68.9	79
1H projected score	USD 32.6 · CBU 36.4	USD 39 · CBU 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
USD LWWL	2-2	50%	—	1-0
CBU LWLWL	2-3	40%	—	1-3

Venue/role: USD neutral site, as underdog; CBU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
USD UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2
CBU OUUUU	1-4	20%	5-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USDlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
CBUlast 5	5-0 100%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

USD 0–1 CBUCBU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · USD 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 10, 2022-23	CBU 76 @ USD 73	USD -3.5	CBU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

San Diego

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsIDST	L 68-71	-4.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 139
Nov 12	vsIDHO	W 78-74	+1.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 18	vsGRAM	W 78-68	-6.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 146
Nov 21	vsUCR	L 71-85	-7.5	L −21.5	152.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IDST

L 68-71

−7.5

IDHO

W 78-74

+5.5

GRAM

W 78-68

+3.5

UCR

L 71-85

−21.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IDST

L 68-71

−13.5

IDHO

W 78-74

−3.5

GRAM

W 78-68

−3.5

UCR

L 71-85

+3.5

over 1under 3avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

CA Baptist

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUPST	W 87-75	-14.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 7	@UCI	W 69-61	+8.5	W +16.5	147.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsWIU	W 69-59	-15.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 128
Nov 18	vsUCR	W 80-57	-12.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 137
Nov 21	vsGRAM	W 72-59	-14.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

−2.5

UCI

W 69-61

+16.5

WIU

W 69-59

−5.5

UCR

W 80-57

+10.5

GRAM

W 72-59

−1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

+9.5

UCI

W 69-61

−17.5

WIU

W 69-59

−12.5

UCR

W 80-57

−5.5

GRAM

W 72-59

−13.5

over 1under 4avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

San Diego vs CA Baptist

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

San Diego

CA Baptist

San Diego

CA Baptist