Eastern Washington Eagles at Denver Pioneers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 9:00 PM ETHamilton Gymnasium · at Denver

Final

#263DENDenver93▲ winner

Closing lineDEN -1.5✓ DEN covered by 2.5

Closing total155.5Over by 26.5

Season records: E Washington and Denver
EWU	This season	DEN
0-6	Record	2-5
4-2	ATS	5-2
5-1	O/U	7-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: EWU 80–82 DEN · ✓ DEN (57%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
EWU	43	46	89
DEN	48	45	93

1st half: EWU 43, DEN 48 (DEN by 5). The model had DEN by 1.0 and a total of 75.5 (actual 91).

Team stats

EWU		DEN
33-55 60%	Field goals	27-56 48%
9-18 50%	3-pointers	11-23 48%
14-19 74%	Free throws	28-33 85%
28 7 off	Rebounds	26 10 off
9	Assists	12
3	Steals	7
2	Blocks	2
12	Turnovers	8
24	Fouls	16
40	Points in paint	30
20	Fast-break points	12

Players

EWU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Isaiah Moses G	36	28	1	3	10-13	4-4
Straton Rogers G	27	10	6	1	5-11	0-1
Kiree Huie F	23	15	5	0	6-6	0-0
Jojo Anderson G	23	4	0	0	2-4	0-1
Emmett Marquardt F	15	9	3	1	2-2	2-2
Bench
Alton Hamilton IV F	24	10	5	3	4-8	0-1
Johnny Radford G	22	7	2	1	2-7	1-5
Tyler Powell G	16	6	1	0	2-4	2-4
Elijah Thomas G	9	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Cole Scherer G	5	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Shaumba Ngoyi, Maddox Monson, Alan Gballou, Andrew Cook, Angelo Winkel

DEN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Carson Johnson G	38	14	1	2	3-9	3-5
Jeremiah Burke F	34	23	7	1	8-16	3-7
Logan Kinsey F	33	11	4	1	3-8	1-3
Julius Rollins G	28	18	3	2	4-5	2-3
Shaun Wysocki F	16	2	1	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Zane Nelson G	26	17	5	4	5-11	2-4
Gabe Oldham F	20	8	5	1	4-5	0-0
Josh Lee G	5	0	0	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Loch Cunningham, Devin Carney, Corleone Dandridge, Trajan Thompson, Ian Motta, Kaden Holdbrook, Didier Maleng

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DEN -1.5	DEN -2.0	DEN +0.5	W DEN covered
Total	155.5	161.3	Over 5.8	W Over
Projected score	—	EWU 79.7 · DEN 81.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DEN -1.0	DEN -5.0
1H total	75.5	91
1H projected score	EWU 37.2 · DEN 38.2	EWU 43 · DEN 48

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EWU WWLLW	4-2	67%	4-2	4-1
DEN WLWWL	5-2	71%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: EWU away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
EWU UOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
DEN OOOOO	7-0	100%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EWUlast 6	0-6 0%	4-2 67%	5-1 83%
DENlast 7	2-5 29%	5-2 71%	7-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Washington

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +8.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-183%

O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UCLA	L 74-80	+29.5	W +23.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 5	@LMU	L 62-70	+9.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	@COLO	L 97-102	+16.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 199
Nov 12	@SEA	L 67-94	+8.5	L −18.5	148.5	O 161
Nov 23	@CARK	L 65-92	-4.5	L −31.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 25	@UNT	L 71-79	+12.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCLA

L 74-80

+23.5

LMU

L 62-70

+1.5

COLO

L 97-102

+11.5

SEA

L 67-94

−18.5

CARK

L 65-92

−31.5

UNT

L 71-79

+4.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCLA

L 74-80

+4.5

LMU

L 62-70

−21.5

COLO

L 97-102

+46.5

SEA

L 67-94

+12.5

CARK

L 65-92

+2.5

UNT

L 71-79

+8.5

over 5under 1avg +8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Denver

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-0

100% overs · avg +11.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-0100%

O O O O O O O

7 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SEA	L 73-84	+13.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 157
Nov 6	@WASH	L 70-84	+27.5	W +13.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 9	@MTST	W 75-73	+7.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 15	vsUTSA	L 79-84	-4.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 163
Nov 21	@CSU	W 83-81	+18.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 164
Nov 24	@ARIZ	L 73-103	+32.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 176
Nov 26	@WYO	L 59-101	+9.5	L −32.5	153.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SEA

L 73-84

+2.5

WASH

L 70-84

+13.5

MTST

W 75-73

+9.5

UTSA

L 79-84

−9.5

CSU

W 83-81

+20.5

ARIZ

L 73-103

+2.5

WYO

L 59-101

−32.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SEA

L 73-84

+20.5

WASH

L 70-84

+0.5

MTST

W 75-73

+1.5

UTSA

L 79-84

+14.5

CSU

W 83-81

+14.5

ARIZ

L 73-103

+21.5

WYO

L 59-101

+6.5

over 7under 0avg +11.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

E Washington @ Denver

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

E Washington

Denver

E Washington

Denver