Northern Illinois Huskies at Austin Peay Governors: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 8:00 PM ETF&M Bank Arena · at Austin Peay

Final

#210APSUAustin Peay77▲ winner

Closing lineAPSU -6.5✓ APSU covered by 11.5

Closing total147.5Under by 11.5

Season records: N Illinois and Austin Peay
NIU	This season	APSU
2-3	Record	2-3
4-1	ATS	3-2
2-3	O/U	1-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NIU 69–78 APSU · ✓ APSU (78%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NIU	38	21	59
APSU	41	36	77

1st half: NIU 38, APSU 41 (APSU by 3). The model had APSU by 5.2 and a total of 68.4 (actual 79).

Team stats

NIU		APSU
25-60 42%	Field goals	27-51 53%
2-22 9%	3-pointers	10-23 43%
7-17 41%	Free throws	13-22 59%
30 12 off	Rebounds	38 9 off
5	Assists	17
6	Steals	8
1	Blocks	2
11	Turnovers	10
18	Fouls	17
46	Points in paint	32
5	Fast-break points	6

Players

NIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Gustav Winther F	30	8	4	0	4-5	0-0
Makhai Valentine G	28	10	3	1	4-13	1-7
Dylan Ducommun G	25	4	1	0	2-8	0-4
Daemar Kelly G	21	8	4	1	3-10	0-3
Hassan Washington F	15	2	1	0	1-3	0-0
Bench
Taj Walters G	21	2	3	0	1-1	0-0
Gianni Cobb G	20	12	1	2	5-8	1-3
Jao Ituka G	12	6	4	1	3-6	0-2
Ladji Kante F	11	2	1	0	1-3	0-2
Isaiah Washington G	7	2	1	0	0-0	0-0
Carlos Coronado G	6	2	0	0	1-2	0-1
Isaiah Stewart G	3	1	2	0	0-0	0-0
Jaylen Wharton F	1	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Lataevyon Taylor, JJ Taylor, Max Laskey

APSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tate McCubbin G	38	13	6	4	4-9	3-7
Rashaud Marshall F	34	12	9	1	5-6	0-0
Collin Parker F	32	30	8	2	10-19	3-5
Anton Brookshire PG	11	2	0	1	1-3	0-2
Zyree Collins PG	10	3	1	4	1-1	0-0
Bench
Tyler Wagner G	23	9	5	0	3-6	3-6
Quan Lax G	20	2	2	1	1-2	0-1
Matt Enright PG	15	4	2	1	1-1	1-1
Ja'Corey Robinson G	14	2	1	2	1-3	0-0
Creighton Morisch F	2	0	0	1	0-1	0-1
Hansel Enmanuel PG	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Terrell Gaines, Travis Torain

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	APSU -6.5	APSU -8.9	APSU +2.4	W APSU covered
Total	147.5	146.1	Under 1.4	W Under
Projected score	—	NIU 68.6 · APSU 77.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	APSU -5.2	APSU -3.0
1H total	68.4	79
1H projected score	NIU 31.6 · APSU 36.8	NIU 38 · APSU 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU WWLWW	4-1	80%	3-1	3-1
APSU WLWWL	3-2	60%	—	1-0

Venue/role: NIU away, as underdog; APSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU OOUUU	2-3	40%	2-3
APSU UUUUO	1-4	20%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIUlast 5	2-3 40%	4-1 80%	2-3 40%
APSUlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Illinois

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +9.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-180%

W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsULM	W 102-82	-7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@WIS	L 72-97	+28.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 10	@GCU	L 59-88	+22.5	L −6.5	163.5	U 147
Nov 18	@UNI	L 57-70	+19.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	@LUC	W 76-59	+13.5	W +30.5	148.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+12.5

WIS

L 72-97

+3.5

GCU

L 59-88

−6.5

UNI

L 57-70

+6.5

LUC

W 76-59

+30.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+36.5

WIS

L 72-97

+11.5

GCU

L 59-88

−16.5

UNI

L 57-70

−19.5

LUC

W 76-59

−13.5

over 2under 3avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Austin Peay

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −5.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AF	W 74-54	-1.5	W +18.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 11	@WYO	L 65-79	+5.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 144
Nov 15	@UNCG	W 69-63	+1.5	W +7.5	145.5	U 132
Nov 18	@MISS	L 65-72	+20.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@TLSA	L 75-84	+8.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 74-54

+18.5

WYO

L 65-79

−8.5

UNCG

W 69-63

+7.5

MISS

L 65-72

+13.5

TLSA

L 75-84

−0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 74-54

−8.5

WYO

L 65-79

−9.5

UNCG

W 69-63

−13.5

MISS

L 65-72

−8.5

TLSA

L 75-84

+10.5

over 1under 4avg −5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

N Illinois @ Austin Peay

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

N Illinois

Austin Peay

N Illinois

Austin Peay