North Florida Ospreys vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 8:00 PM ETPensacola Bay Center · Neutral site

Final

Closing lineUSM -9.5✓ UNF covered by 0.5

Closing total154.5Over by 20.5

Season records: North Florida and Southern Miss
UNF	This season	USM
0-3	Record	0-3
3-0	ATS	1-2
2-1	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNF 80–85 USM · ✓ USM (68%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNF	46	37	83
USM	35	57	92

1st half: UNF 46, USM 35 (UNF by 11). The model had USM by 3.0 and a total of 77.4 (actual 81).

Team stats

UNF		USM
30-51 59%	Field goals	37-64 58%
15-30 50%	3-pointers	2-10 20%
8-10 80%	Free throws	16-26 62%
20 2 off	Rebounds	35 15 off
22	Assists	16
5	Steals	8
3	Blocks	1
18	Turnovers	10
23	Fouls	15
26	Points in paint	66
6	Fast-break points	8

Players

UNF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kamrin Oriol G	36	17	2	7	5-12	5-9
Kent Jackson G	35	21	2	0	7-13	5-11
Dalton Gayman F	27	12	4	4	5-6	1-1
Mason Lee G	22	6	2	3	2-3	1-2
Devin Hines G	17	13	3	0	5-8	1-4
Bench
BJ Plummer G	24	10	2	3	4-5	2-2
Trey Cady G	15	2	2	1	1-2	0-0
Dante Oliver G	13	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Nestor Dyachok F	7	2	0	2	1-1	0-0
Taylor Thompson G	4	0	0	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Arden Begaj, Mason Watkins, Alex Vargo, Gabe Jacobs

USM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dylan Brumfield G	31	13	2	7	6-7	0-0
Curt Lewis G	14	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Tegra Izay C	9	2	2	1	1-2	0-0
Dalyn Brandon G	7	3	1	0	1-1	1-1
EJ Paymon F	3	2	0	0	1-2	0-1
Bench
Tylik Weeks F	35	37	6	2	15-23	0-2
Djahi Binet F	26	12	6	1	5-7	0-0
Israel Hart G	23	2	1	5	1-6	0-3
Isaac Taveras G	18	14	8	0	6-11	0-0
Brewer Carruth G	15	5	1	0	1-2	1-1
Chiante' Tramble G	9	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Felipe Patino G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
IJ Ezuma F	5	2	1	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Jett Montgomery, Blake Lander, Fallou Diagne, Robert Cowherd, Chandler Watts

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	USM -9.5	USM -5.3	UNF +4.2	W UNF covered
Total	154.5	165.2	Over 10.7	W Over
Projected score	—	UNF 80 · USM 85.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USM -3.0	UNF -11.0
1H total	77.4	81
1H projected score	UNF 37.2 · USM 40.2	UNF 46 · USM 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UNF WWW	3-0	100%	—	3-0
USM LWL	1-2	33%	—	—

Venue/role: UNF neutral site, as underdog; USM neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNF UOO	2-1	67%	0-3
USM OOU	2-1	67%	0-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNFlast 3	0-3 0%	3-0 100%	2-1 67%
USMlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

North Florida

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

3-0

100% covers · avg +4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight covers3 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@FLA	L 64-104	+43.5	W +3.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 12	@TENN	L 66-99	+41.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 165
Nov 19	@WOF	L 78-86	+10.5	W +2.5	161.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FLA

L 64-104

+3.5

TENN

L 66-99

+8.5

WOF

L 78-86

+2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FLA

L 64-104

−1.5

TENN

L 66-99

+9.5

WOF

L 78-86

+2.5

over 2under 1avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Southern Miss

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +7.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BUF	L 79-85	+3.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 164
Nov 9	@SC	L 79-83	+17.5	W +13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 13	@GRAM	L 70-75	+2.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BUF

L 79-85

−2.5

L 79-83

+13.5

GRAM

L 70-75

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BUF

L 79-85

+10.5

L 79-83

+14.5

GRAM

L 70-75

−3.5

over 2under 1avg +7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Florida vs Southern Miss

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

North Florida

Southern Miss

North Florida

Southern Miss