North Alabama Lions at San Francisco Dons: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 10:00 PM ETThe Sobrato Center · at San Francisco

Final

Closing lineSF -16.5✓ UNA covered by 18.5

Closing total145.5Under by 17.5

Season records: North Alabama and San Francisco
UNA	This season	SF
2-4	Record	4-3
3-3	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNA 67–79 SF · ✗ SF (85%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNA	24	41	65
SF	26	37	63

1st half: UNA 24, SF 26 (SF by 2). The model had SF by 7.1 and a total of 68.5 (actual 50).

Team stats

UNA		SF
24-63 38%	Field goals	22-59 37%
3-15 20%	3-pointers	9-31 29%
14-17 82%	Free throws	10-16 63%
46 19 off	Rebounds	31 10 off
10	Assists	17
4	Steals	5
2	Blocks	10
12	Turnovers	9
16	Fouls	18
30	Points in paint	24
5	Fast-break points	8

Players

UNA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kevin de Kovachich G	35	10	1	2	3-10	0-2
Corneilous Williams F	32	12	8	1	5-10	0-0
Canin Jefferson G	30	9	2	3	3-11	1-4
Donte Bacchus F	30	20	5	1	8-14	0-2
Dallas Howell F	29	2	4	2	0-7	0-3
Bench
DarKaun King F	16	8	4	0	3-4	2-2
Tank Washington F	13	2	4	1	1-3	0-1
Jamal Albritton C	8	2	4	0	1-1	0-0
Cortez Graham-Howard G	7	0	0	0	0-3	0-1

Did not play: King Walker, Israel Jenrette, Mitchell Chaffee, Braylon Patton, Kedar Bodie

SF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ryan Beasley G	35	9	1	2	2-10	2-8
Tyrone Riley IV G	31	4	3	4	2-8	0-2
Vukasin Masic G	22	6	2	2	3-7	0-3
Guillermo Diaz-Graham F	16	0	2	2	0-3	0-2
Junjie Wang F	16	8	1	2	3-7	2-4
Bench
Mookie Cook F	30	12	7	2	4-9	1-5
Saba Gigiberia C	17	6	8	3	3-5	0-0
Legend Smiley G	15	11	1	0	4-6	3-5
Veniamin Abosi F	13	7	4	0	1-4	1-2
Aidan Braccia G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: David Fuchs, Sean Blakely Drummond, Weilun Zhao, Ndewedo Newbury, Isa Silva

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SF -16.5	SF -12.0	UNA +4.5	W UNA covered
Total	145.5	146.3	Over 0.8	L Under
Projected score	—	UNA 67.1 · SF 79.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SF -7.1	SF -2.0
1H total	68.5	50
1H projected score	UNA 30.7 · SF 37.8	UNA 24 · SF 26

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNA LLWLW	3-3	50%	3-1	3-1
SF WWWLL	3-4	43%	2-1	2-3

Venue/role: UNA away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNA OOUUO	3-3	50%	2-4
SF UOOUO	3-4	43%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNAlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
SFlast 7	4-3 57%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

North Alabama

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@MSST	L 62-86	+24.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 11	vsNWST	W 87-83	-6.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 170
Nov 15	vsETSU	L 74-78	-1.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 17	@CLEM	L 61-81	+25.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 22	@UTC	L 57-71	+9.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 128
Dec 1	@JXST	W 73-66	+6.5	W +13.5	134.5	O 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSST

L 62-86

+0.5

NWST

W 87-83

−2.5

ETSU

L 74-78

−5.5

CLEM

L 61-81

+5.5

UTC

L 57-71

−4.5

JXST

W 73-66

+13.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSST

L 62-86

−3.5

NWST

W 87-83

+27.5

ETSU

L 74-78

+6.5

CLEM

L 61-81

−2.5

UTC

L 57-71

−21.5

JXST

W 73-66

+4.5

over 3under 3avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Francisco

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@MEM	L 70-76	+2.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 12	vsPRST	W 80-70	-13.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 150
Nov 15	vsBRAD	W 75-64	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 139
Nov 18	vsNWST	W 84-64	-16.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 148
Nov 22	vsMINN	W 77-65	+1.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 27	vsCOLO	L 69-79	-1.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 28	vsNEV	L 65-81	-5.5	L −21.5	142.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−3.5

PRST

W 80-70

−3.5

BRAD

W 75-64

+1.5

NWST

W 84-64

+3.5

MINN

W 77-65

+13.5

COLO

L 69-79

−11.5

NEV

L 65-81

−21.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−11.5

PRST

W 80-70

−4.5

BRAD

W 75-64

−7.5

NWST

W 84-64

+4.5

MINN

W 77-65

+1.5

COLO

L 69-79

−2.5

NEV

L 65-81

+3.5

over 3under 4avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Alabama @ San Francisco

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

North Alabama

San Francisco

North Alabama

San Francisco