Bellarmine Knights at Northern Illinois Huskies: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 3:00 PM ETNIU Convocation Center · at N Illinois

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bellarmine and N Illinois
BELL	This season	NIU
2-4	Record	2-4
4-2	ATS	4-2
4-2	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NIU 79–76 · win probability NIU 58%

Line

—

no line yet

Total

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model 154.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BELL has more of the edges

BELL 5, NIU 2 · 2025-26 so far

NIUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BELL 22.4%, NIU 30.3%. Defensive: BELL 65.8%, NIU 70.0%

BELLBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BELL 59.4 and allows 59.4; NIU 47.6 and allows 55.6

BELLBig

Three-pointers

BELL hits 38.1% and allows 40.4%; NIU hits 30.9% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 41.2% and 45.0% of their shots

BELLSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BELL 15.4%, NIU 21.7%. Forced: BELL 15.1%, NIU 16.3%

BELLSmall

BELL offense vs NIU defense

Offense 239th of 366 against a defense 327th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BELL has played the 229th-hardest schedule, NIU the 167th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: BELL plays 66.7 a game (288th fastest), NIU 69.0 (181st). Faster games mean more points

NIUSmall

Home court

NIU at home. This season: NIU 1-0 at home, BELL 1-3 away

BELLSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BELL 56%, NIU 30%. Transfers in: BELL 1, NIU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BELL 4-1 ATS, margin -5.0; NIU 3-2 ATS, margin -13.6

Even

NIU offense vs BELL defense

Offense 327th of 366 against a defense 345th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BELL 35.0, NIU 38.3. Allowed: BELL 34.3, NIU 38.3

Even

Rest

BELL 4 days since its last game, NIU 4

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NIU -2.3	—
Total	—	154.8	—
Projected score	—	BELL 76.2 · NIU 78.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NIU -1.3	—
1H total	72.5	—
1H projected score	BELL 35.6 · NIU 36.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BELL WLWWW	4-2	67%	3-1	—
NIU WLWWL	4-2	67%	1-0	—

Venue/role: BELL away; NIU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BELL OOOUU	4-2	67%	2-4
NIU OUUUU	2-4	33%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BELLlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
NIUlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bellarmine

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UGA	L 59-104	+23.5	L −21.5	150.5	O 163
Nov 8	@KSU	L 71-98	+28.5	W +1.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 15	vsWOF	L 86-94	+3.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 180
Nov 19	@ND	L 79-86	+24.5	W +17.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 24	@CIT	W 70-58	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 128
Nov 25	vsHCU	W 74-69	+2.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UGA

L 59-104

−21.5

KSU

L 71-98

+1.5

WOF

L 86-94

−4.5

L 79-86

+17.5

CIT

W 70-58

+8.5

HCU

W 74-69

+7.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UGA

L 59-104

+12.5

KSU

L 71-98

+0.5

WOF

L 86-94

+23.5

L 79-86

+14.5

CIT

W 70-58

−28.5

HCU

W 74-69

−1.5

over 4under 2avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

N Illinois

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsULM	W 102-82	-7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@WIS	L 72-97	+28.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 10	@GCU	L 59-88	+22.5	L −6.5	163.5	U 147
Nov 18	@UNI	L 57-70	+19.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	@LUC	W 76-59	+13.5	W +30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	@APSU	L 59-77	+6.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+12.5

WIS

L 72-97

+3.5

GCU

L 59-88

−6.5

UNI

L 57-70

+6.5

LUC

W 76-59

+30.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+36.5

WIS

L 72-97

+11.5

GCU

L 59-88

−16.5

UNI

L 57-70

−19.5

LUC

W 76-59

−13.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

over 2under 4avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

N Illinois has the better starters

Position by position: Bellarmine 0, N Illinois 2, even 3

BellarmineBetterN Illinois

G K. Goodin11.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 31

Even

G M. Weisbrod TR11 pts · 2 reb · 8 ast Score 25

G T. Doyle10 pts · 2.9 reb · 4 ast Score 35

NIUSmall

G T. Polite15 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 63

F S. Donald6.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12

NIUBig

G U. Buntyn TR12.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 52

F J. Wassler3.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 4

Even

G D. Douglas TR12 pts · 4 reb · 0 ast Score 6

F T. Tornatta TR3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 26

Even

F T. Samuels7 pts · 8.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33

BellarmineBetterN Illinois

BELL offense239th of 366 · -7.3

BELLSmall

NIU defense327th of 366 · -8.5

BELL defense345th of 366 · -9.2

Even

NIU offense327th of 366 · -10.6

Backcourt-3.8 · 2 players

BELLSmall

Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.9 · 3 players

NIUBig

Frontcourt-1.4 · 1 player

Bench-1.5 · 3 players

BELLSmall

Bench-3.5 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestBELL betterNIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bellarmine

Guards

K. Goodin33 minT. Doyle28 minG. Whitaker7 minG. Neal3 minT. Clark2 minJ. GizziNew

Forwards

S. Donald27 minJ. Wassler12 minT. Tornatta9 min · TRA. McAfeeNewB. KlopfensteinNewE. HarrellNew

N Illinois

Guards

M. Weisbrod31 min · TRT. Polite31 minU. Buntyn31 min · TRD. Douglas30 min · TRN. Carter-SmithNewC. HardrickNew

Forwards

T. Samuels30 minM. Ivanauskas20 min · TRJ. Daugherty10 min · TRA. McBirney-Griffin10 min · TRB. GrossNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BELL78.9 #80

NIU66.3 #341

Points per possession

BELL1.18 #34

NIU0.96 #354

Pace (possessions)

BELL66.7 #288

NIU69.0 #181

Shooting

Effective FG%

BELL59.4 #3

NIU47.6 #324

3-point %

BELL38.1 #17

NIU30.9 #323

3-point attempt rate

BELL41.2 #145

NIU45.0 #66

Free throw rate

BELL35.0 #178

NIU38.3 #95

Possessions

Turnover rate

BELL15.4 #100

NIU21.7 #360

Offensive rebound rate

BELL22.4 #354

NIU30.3 #187

Assists per game

BELL14.8 #98

NIU11.6 #308

Defense

Points allowed

BELL83.3 #350

NIU78.9 #291

Points allowed per possession

BELL1.25 #365

NIU1.15 #323

Opponent effective FG%

BELL59.4 #365

NIU55.6 #342

Opponent 3-point %

BELL40.4 #364

NIU36.3 #315

Turnovers forced

BELL15.1 #277

NIU16.3 #199

Defensive rebound rate

BELL65.8 #320

NIU70.0 #161

Steals per game

BELL5.8 #255

NIU5.6 #288

Blocks per game

BELL1.7 #356

NIU1.9 #352

BELL		NIU
Scoring
78.9 #80	Points per game	66.3 #341
1.18 #34	Points per possession	0.96 #354
66.7 #288	Pace (possessions)	69.0 #181
Shooting
59.4 #3	Effective FG%	47.6 #324
38.1 #17	3-point %	30.9 #323
41.2 #145	3-point attempt rate	45.0 #66
35.0 #178	Free throw rate	38.3 #95
Possessions
15.4 #100	Turnover rate	21.7 #360
22.4 #354	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #187
14.8 #98	Assists per game	11.6 #308
Defense
83.3 #350	Points allowed	78.9 #291
1.25 #365	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #323
59.4 #365	Opponent effective FG%	55.6 #342
40.4 #364	Opponent 3-point %	36.3 #315
15.1 #277	Turnovers forced	16.3 #199
65.8 #320	Defensive rebound rate	70.0 #161
5.8 #255	Steals per game	5.6 #288
1.7 #356	Blocks per game	1.9 #352

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bellarmine

2-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs Hou Christian74–69
W@ The Citadel70–58
L@ Notre Dame79–86
Lvs Wofford86–94
L@ Kansas St71–98

4 days since their last game.

N Illinois

2-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Austin Peay59–77
W@ Loyola Chicago76–59
L@ Northern Iowa57–70
L@ Grand Canyon59–88
L@ Wisconsin72–97

4 days since their last game.

Bellarmine @ N Illinois

What could decide it: BELL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Bellarmine

N Illinois

N Illinois has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bellarmine

N Illinois