Pepperdine Waves at Cal State Fullerton Titans: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 5:00 PM ETTitan Gym · at Fullerton

#172PEPPPepperdine69final

Final

#312CSUFFullerton83▲ winner

Closing lineCSUF -1.5✓ CSUF covered by 12.5

Closing total161.5Under by 9.5

Season records: Pepperdine and Fullerton
PEPP	This season	CSUF
1-4	Record	1-5
2-3	ATS	3-3
2-3	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PEPP 81–79 CSUF · ✗ PEPP (56%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PEPP	33	36	69
CSUF	40	43	83

1st half: PEPP 33, CSUF 40 (CSUF by 7). The model had PEPP by 1.3 and a total of 75.0 (actual 73).

Team stats

PEPP		CSUF
20-50 40%	Field goals	34-71 48%
6-25 24%	3-pointers	9-30 30%
23-26 88%	Free throws	6-9 67%
32 6 off	Rebounds	40 13 off
14	Assists	15
3	Steals	7
4	Blocks	2
13	Turnovers	9
12	Fouls	20
26	Points in paint	46
12	Fast-break points	14

Players

PEPP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aaron Clark G	37	6	7	5	2-6	0-2
Styles Phipps G	34	11	5	4	2-7	1-3
Javon Cooley G	29	13	2	1	2-8	1-4
Danilo Dozic C	24	11	3	1	4-8	2-6
Pavle Stosic F	15	6	5	1	2-3	0-1
Bench
Luka Vudragovic G	29	13	2	0	5-11	1-7
David Mager G	10	5	0	1	1-3	1-2
Yonatan Levy F	10	2	2	1	1-2	0-0
Pasha Shemirani F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Stefan Cicic C	4	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Vladimir Sudar F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Yassine Gharram, Preston Phillips, Ty Virgil, Anto Balian, Nikola Radovanovic

CSUF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joshua Ward G	38	19	3	2	9-20	1-8
Christian Williams G	33	8	7	4	3-10	2-5
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro G	28	8	5	1	3-7	0-1
Kendrick De Luna F	20	5	4	1	2-4	0-0
Bryce Cofield G	13	8	4	1	3-6	0-1
Bench
Jaden Henderson G	20	7	2	5	3-8	1-5
Landon Seaman F	20	17	8	1	7-7	2-2
Davis White G	17	9	3	0	3-6	3-6
KJ Garris Jr. G	11	2	2	0	1-3	0-2

Did not play: Kidus Tilahun, Yesan Warren, Karan Kolappa, Cam Smith, Nicholas Khatchikian, Matthew Quinlan, Ben Winker, Bailey Nunn

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CSUF -1.5	PEPP -1.8	PEPP +3.3	L CSUF covered
Total	161.5	160.3	Under 1.2	W Under
Projected score	—	PEPP 81.1 · CSUF 79.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PEPP -1.3	CSUF -7.0
1H total	75.0	73
1H projected score	PEPP 38.2 · CSUF 36.9	PEPP 33 · CSUF 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PEPP WLWLL	2-3	40%	1-0	1-3
CSUF LLLWW	3-3	50%	0-1	—

Venue/role: PEPP away, as underdog; CSUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PEPP UOOUU	2-3	40%	1-4
CSUF UUOOO	4-2	67%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PEPPlast 5	1-4 20%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%
CSUFlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PEPP 0–3 CSUFCSUF leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · CSUF has won the last 3 meetings · PEPP 0-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 26, 2024-25	CSUF 72 @ PEPP 63	PEPP -5.5	CSUF W
Dec 6, 2023-24	CSUF 60 @ PEPP 55	PEPP -4.5	CSUF W
Nov 11, 2022-23	PEPP 71 @ CSUF 74	CSUF +3.5	CSUF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pepperdine

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −7.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@UCLA	L 63-74	+29.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUNCO	L 81-88	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	vsNOLA	W 90-79	-5.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 21	vsSFA	L 60-63	+1.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsFRES	L 53-76	+2.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

+18.5

UNCO

L 81-88

−5.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+5.5

SFA

L 60-63

−1.5

FRES

L 53-76

−20.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

−15.5

UNCO

L 81-88

+15.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+11.5

SFA

L 60-63

−25.5

FRES

L 53-76

−21.5

over 2under 3avg −7.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Fullerton

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +11.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@WYO	L 82-92	+15.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 174
Nov 10	@CAL	L 65-93	+22.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 158
Nov 15	vsPAC	L 73-85	+6.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 158
Nov 21	@PORT	L 85-103	+6.5	L −11.5	164.5	O 188
Nov 22	vsSTMN	W 88-80	+11.5	W +19.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 23	vsUNCO	L 93-97	+8.5	W +4.5	164.5	O 190

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WYO

L 82-92

+5.5

CAL

L 65-93

−5.5

PAC

L 73-85

−5.5

PORT

L 85-103

−11.5

STMN

W 88-80

+19.5

UNCO

L 93-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WYO

L 82-92

+19.5

CAL

L 65-93

−4.5

PAC

L 73-85

−1.5

PORT

L 85-103

+23.5

STMN

W 88-80

+5.5

UNCO

L 93-97

+25.5

over 4under 2avg +11.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pepperdine @ Fullerton

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Pepperdine

Fullerton

Pepperdine

Fullerton