Georgetown Hoyas at Marquette Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 17, 8:30 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Marquette · Conference game

#64GTWNGeorgetown78▲ winner

Final

#42MARQMarquette69final

Closing lineMARQ -6.5✓ GTWN covered by 15.5

Closing total149.5Under by 2.5

Season records: Georgetown and Marquette
GTWN	This season	MARQ
7-3	Record	5-6
2-8	ATS	3-8
7-3	O/U	6-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GTWN 74–80 MARQ · ✗ MARQ (69%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GTWN	37	41	78
MARQ	33	36	69

1st half: GTWN 37, MARQ 33 (GTWN by 4). The model had MARQ by 3.4 and a total of 72.3 (actual 70).

Team stats

GTWN		MARQ
27-58 47%	Field goals	27-64 42%
4-16 25%	3-pointers	7-26 27%
20-23 87%	Free throws	8-12 67%
41 14 off	Rebounds	30 12 off
17	Assists	16
6	Steals	6
3	Blocks	4
9	Turnovers	7
14	Fouls	18
40	Points in paint	38
12	Fast-break points	11

Players

GTWN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Julius Halaifonua C	35	21	6	4	7-10	1-1
Malik Mack G	34	13	3	5	5-12	1-3
Jeremiah Williams G	28	15	5	5	5-8	0-0
Caleb Williams F	25	11	6	0	4-8	1-4
Isaiah Abraham F	16	4	3	0	2-4	0-2
Bench
Langston Love G	26	10	6	0	2-5	1-3
Jayden Fort F	20	4	6	2	2-4	0-0
KJ Lewis G	13	0	3	1	0-6	0-2
Kayvaun Mulready G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Hashem Asadallah, Austin Montgomery, DeShawn Harris-Smith, Vince Iwuchukwu, Mason Moses, Michael Van Raaphorst, Seal Diouf

MARQ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chase Ross G	31	4	4	3	1-11	0-5
Nigel James Jr. G	30	13	1	5	6-12	0-2
Royce Parham F	26	12	4	0	5-8	2-3
Caedin Hamilton F	17	3	6	2	1-4	0-0
Adrien Stevens G	14	6	0	1	2-2	2-2
Bench
Damarius Owens SF	27	15	7	0	5-11	1-4
Ben Gold F	27	4	5	1	2-6	0-4
Sean Jones G	22	10	1	4	4-7	2-4
Tre Norman G	4	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Michael Phillips II SF	2	0	1	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Casey O'Malley, Zaide Lowery, Jonah Lucas, Joshua Clark, Ian Miletic, Sheek Pearson, Braeden Brenn

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MARQ -6.5	MARQ -5.8	GTWN +0.7	W GTWN covered
Total	149.5	154.6	Over 5.1	L Under
Projected score	—	GTWN 74.4 · MARQ 80.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MARQ -3.4	GTWN -4.0
1H total	72.3	70
1H projected score	GTWN 34.5 · MARQ 37.9	GTWN 37 · MARQ 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GTWN LLLLL	2-8	20%	1-1	2-3
MARQ LWLLL	3-8	27%	2-5	2-5

Venue/role: GTWN away, as underdog; MARQ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GTWN OUOUO	7-3	70%	7-3
MARQ OUOOU	6-5	55%	5-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GTWN	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%
MARQ	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

GTWN 0–8 MARQMARQ leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · MARQ has won the last 8 meetings · GTWN 2-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 1, 2024-25	MARQ 76 @ GTWN 61	GTWN +8.5	MARQ W
Jan 7, 2024-25	GTWN 66 @ MARQ 74	MARQ -13.5	GTWN W
Feb 3, 2023-24	MARQ 91 @ GTWN 57	GTWN +12.5	MARQ W
Dec 22, 2023-24	GTWN 51 @ MARQ 81	MARQ -17.5	MARQ W
Feb 11, 2022-23	MARQ 89 @ GTWN 75	GTWN +11.5	MARQ W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Georgetown

10 games played

Straight up

7-3

70% wins

Against the spread

2-8

20% covers · avg −5.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-3

70% overs · avg +6.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-370%

W W W W W L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-820%

L W L W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-370%

O U O O O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMORG	W 87-70	-27.5	L −10.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 7	@MD	W 70-60	+4.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 130
Nov 12	vsBING	W 83-70	-27.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 153
Nov 15	vsCLEM	W 79-74	+1.5	W +6.5	142.5	O 153
Nov 22	vsWAG	W 92-75	-25.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 167
Nov 27	vsDAY	L 79-84	+1.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 163
Nov 28	vsMIA	L 65-78	+5.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsUMBC	W 90-81	-19.5	L −10.5	149.5	O 171
Dec 7	@UNC	L 61-81	+10.5	L −9.5	149.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsSPU	W 76-68	-20.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MORG

W 87-70

−10.5

W 70-60

+14.5

BING

W 83-70

−14.5

CLEM

W 79-74

+6.5

WAG

W 92-75

−8.5

DAY

L 79-84

−3.5

MIA

L 65-78

−7.5

UMBC

W 90-81

−10.5

UNC

L 61-81

−9.5

SPU

W 76-68

−12.5

covered 2didn’t cover 8avg −5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MORG

W 87-70

+2.5

W 70-60

−14.5

BING

W 83-70

+11.5

CLEM

W 79-74

+10.5

WAG

W 92-75

+26.5

DAY

L 79-84

+17.5

MIA

L 65-78

−8.5

UMBC

W 90-81

+21.5

UNC

L 61-81

−7.5

SPU

W 76-68

+3.5

over 7under 3avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marquette

11 games played

Straight up

5-6

45% wins

Against the spread

3-8

27% covers · avg −6.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-5

55% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-645%

W W L W L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-827%

W L L W L L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-555%

U O O U O U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUALB	W 80-53	-24.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 5	vsSOU	W 100-82	-24.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 9	vsIU	L 77-100	+3.5	L −19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsLR	W 89-49	-21.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMD	L 82-89	-8.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 171
Nov 19	vsDAY	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 22	vsCMU	W 85-71	-25.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 28	vsOU	L 74-75	+1.5	W +0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	vsVAL	W 75-72	-17.5	L −14.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 6	@WIS	L 76-96	+11.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 172
Dec 13	@PUR	L 59-79	+16.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

+2.5

SOU

W 100-82

−6.5

L 77-100

−19.5

W 89-49

+18.5

L 82-89

−15.5

DAY

L 71-77

−12.5

CMU

W 85-71

−11.5

L 74-75

+0.5

VAL

W 75-72

−14.5

WIS

L 76-96

−8.5

PUR

L 59-79

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 8avg −6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

−16.5

SOU

W 100-82

+26.5

L 77-100

+20.5

W 89-49

−17.5

L 82-89

+24.5

DAY

L 71-77

−3.5

CMU

W 85-71

+3.5

L 74-75

−13.5

VAL

W 75-72

+0.5

WIS

L 76-96

+11.5

PUR

L 59-79

−16.5

over 6under 5avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgetown @ Marquette

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Georgetown

Marquette

Georgetown

Marquette