Chicago State Cougars at Iowa Hawkeyes: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 7:00 PM ETCarver-Hawkeye Arena · at Iowa

#362CHSTChicago St54final

Final

#43IOWAIowa93▲ winner

Closing lineIOWA -31.5✓ IOWA covered by 7.5

Closing total142.5Over by 4.5

Season records: Chicago St and Iowa
CHST	This season	IOWA
0-5	Record	4-0
3-2	ATS	3-1
3-2	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CHST 63–93 IOWA · ✓ IOWA (100%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CHST	24	30	54
IOWA	40	53	93

1st half: CHST 24, IOWA 40 (IOWA by 16). The model had IOWA by 18.2 and a total of 72.9 (actual 64).

Team stats

CHST		IOWA
20-50 40%	Field goals	33-58 57%
2-11 18%	3-pointers	12-31 39%
12-15 80%	Free throws	15-19 79%
22 8 off	Rebounds	37 12 off
7	Assists	26
5	Steals	6
1	Blocks	1
11	Turnovers	7
21	Fouls	14
24	Points in paint	42
2	Fast-break points	7

Players

CHST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Marcus Tankersley G	34	19	3	3	7-12	1-2
Braelon Bush G	33	8	3	1	3-9	0-2
Stephen Byard F	30	7	7	1	3-11	1-2
CJ Ray F	25	12	2	1	4-9	0-2
Chauncey Gibson G	22	0	1	0	0-3	0-2
Bench
Lionel Larvadain G	16	2	1	1	1-3	0-0
Corey Sands G	13	2	1	0	0-1	0-1
Dailliss Cox F	12	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Malek Robinson G	7	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Daniel Zatsepin F	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Dakari Thomas G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Joseph Owens F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: DaJuan Bates, Greg Spate, Doyel Cockrill III, CJ Delancy, Deshawn Jean-Charles

IOWA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Bennett Stirtz G	36	9	5	6	3-5	1-3
Kael Combs G	32	3	2	5	1-2	1-2
Tavion Banks G	24	16	10	2	5-8	1-1
Cooper Koch F	13	10	2	0	4-7	2-5
Cam Manyawu F	13	5	2	2	2-2	0-0
Bench
Alvaro Folgueiras F	21	14	6	4	5-9	3-5
Brendan Hausen G	16	9	0	1	3-7	3-7
Tate Sage G	16	13	3	1	4-7	1-4
Isaia Howard G	13	8	3	3	4-6	0-2
Trevin Jirak C	11	6	2	1	2-4	0-1
Joey Matteoni F	3	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Jacob Koch G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Trey Thompson, Peyton McCollum

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	IOWA -31.5	IOWA -30.5	CHST +1.0	L IOWA covered
Total	142.5	155.5	Over 13.0	W Over
Projected score	—	CHST 62.5 · IOWA 93

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IOWA -18.2	IOWA -16.0
1H total	72.9	64
1H projected score	CHST 27.3 · IOWA 45.5	CHST 24 · IOWA 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHST LWLWW	3-2	60%	2-2	3-2
IOWA WLWW	3-1	75%	3-1	3-1

Venue/role: CHST away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHST OOOUU	3-2	60%	0-5
IOWA OUUO	2-2	50%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHSTlast 5	0-5 0%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%
IOWAlast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Chicago St

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DEP	L 62-92	+24.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 6	@SLU	L 86-108	+30.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 194
Nov 11	@BTLR	L 66-98	+26.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 15	vsUIC	L 63-67	+9.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 130
Nov 18	@MINN	L 54-66	+27.5	W +15.5	144.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

−5.5

SLU

L 86-108

+8.5

BTLR

L 66-98

−5.5

UIC

L 63-67

+5.5

MINN

L 54-66

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

+10.5

SLU

L 86-108

+38.5

BTLR

L 66-98

+5.5

UIC

L 63-67

−26.5

MINN

L 54-66

−24.5

over 3under 2avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Iowa

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +11 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsRMU	W 101-69	-22.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 170
Nov 7	vsWIU	W 77-58	-30.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 135
Nov 14	vsXAV	W 81-62	-15.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 143
Nov 18	vsSEMO	W 99-70	-23.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RMU

W 101-69

+9.5

WIU

W 77-58

−11.5

XAV

W 81-62

+3.5

SEMO

W 99-70

+5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RMU

W 101-69

+33.5

WIU

W 77-58

−10.5

XAV

W 81-62

−0.5

SEMO

W 99-70

+21.5

over 2under 2avg +11 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Chicago St @ Iowa

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Chicago St

Iowa

Chicago St

Iowa