Wichita State Shockers at Northern Iowa Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 8:00 PM ETMcLeod Center · at Northern Iowa

#77WICHWichita St74▲ winner

Final

Closing lineUNI -1.5✓ WICH covered by 6.5

Closing total135.5Over by 7.5

Season records: Wichita St and Northern Iowa
WICH	This season	UNI
4-4	Record	6-1
6-2	ATS	4-3
3-5	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WICH 66–68 UNI · ✗ UNI (54%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
WICH	35	24	15	74
UNI	28	31	10	69

1st half: WICH 35, UNI 28 (WICH by 7). The model had UNI by 0.6 and a total of 62.7 (actual 63).

Team stats

WICH		UNI
26-60 43%	Field goals	27-61 44%
9-25 36%	3-pointers	3-18 17%
13-17 76%	Free throws	12-22 55%
41 12 off	Rebounds	33 8 off
10	Assists	18
6	Steals	6
2	Blocks	1
14	Turnovers	8
22	Fouls	18
30	Points in paint	42
12	Fast-break points	7

Players

WICH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Karon Boyd F	38	10	7	0	4-10	2-4
TJ Williams G	37	18	9	1	7-12	0-2
Kenyon Giles G	35	12	3	2	5-18	2-9
Michael Gray Jr. G	34	15	4	4	4-8	3-6
William Berg C	27	4	6	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Dre Kindell G	21	10	5	2	2-4	1-1
Emmanuel Okorafor F	13	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Brian Amuneke G	7	3	0	1	1-4	1-3
Noah Hill F	7	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Jaret Valencia F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Dillon Battie F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Henry Thengvall F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Joy Ighovodja, Tyrus Rathan-Mayes, Pierre Couisnard

UNI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Trey Campbell G	38	14	5	3	4-11	2-4
Will Hornseth F	36	15	8	4	7-13	0-0
Tristan Smith F	34	16	4	0	5-10	0-0
Leon Bond III G	28	11	6	0	5-11	1-5
Max Weisbrod G	20	0	1	1	0-4	0-4
Bench
Ben Schwieger F	30	3	4	5	1-3	0-1
RJ Taylor G	13	0	0	4	0-1	0-1
Kyle Pock F	11	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Ismael Diouf F	9	8	0	1	4-6	0-2
Geon Hutchins G	6	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Marino Dubravcic, Redek Born, Chase Courbat, Cade Courbat, Jalen Wilson, Hunter Jacobson, Levi Valdo

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNI -1.5	UNI -1.2	WICH +0.3	W WICH covered
Total	135.5	133.8	Under 1.8	L Over
Projected score	—	WICH 66.3 · UNI 67.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNI -0.6	WICH -7.0
1H total	62.7	63
1H projected score	WICH 31.1 · UNI 31.6	WICH 35 · UNI 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WICH WWWLL	6-2	75%	1-0	2-1
UNI WLWWL	4-3	57%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: WICH away, as underdog; UNI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WICH UUUOU	3-5	38%	4-4
UNI UUOUU	1-6	14%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WICHlast 8	4-4 50%	6-2 75%	3-5 38%
UNIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WICH 1–0 UNIWICH leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · WICH 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 14, 2024-25	UNI 73 @ WICH 79	WICH -7.5	UNI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wichita St

8 games played

Straight up

4-4

50% wins

Against the spread

6-2

75% covers · avg +6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-5

38% overs · avg −8.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-450%

W W W L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-275%

W W W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-538%

U O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCA	W 75-58	-6.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsPV	W 105-62	-20.5	W +22.5	156.5	O 167
Nov 13	vsLUC	W 95-74	-5.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	@BOIS	L 59-62	+9.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 121
Nov 22	vsMILW	W 75-58	-10.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 26	vsSMC	L 65-70	+9.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsCSU	L 70-76	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsWKU	L 70-75	-4.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

+10.5

W 105-62

+22.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

+6.5

MILW

W 75-58

+6.5

SMC

L 65-70

+4.5

CSU

L 70-76

−4.5

WKU

L 70-75

−9.5

covered 6didn’t cover 2avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

−24.5

W 105-62

+10.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

−29.5

MILW

W 75-58

−25.5

SMC

L 65-70

−4.5

CSU

L 70-76

+3.5

WKU

L 70-75

−10.5

over 3under 5avg −8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Northern Iowa

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −14.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsCSUN	W 86-57	-9.5	W +19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	vsSDST	W 65-58	-10.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 14	vsFUR	W 70-54	-9.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 18	vsNIU	W 70-57	-19.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 22	@UCI	W 70-69	+2.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 139
Nov 25	vsLUC	W 72-51	-8.5	W +12.5	134.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsTLSA	L 60-63	-2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

+19.5

SDST

W 65-58

−3.5

FUR

W 70-54

+6.5

NIU

W 70-57

−6.5

UCI

W 70-69

+3.5

LUC

W 72-51

+12.5

TLSA

L 60-63

−5.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

−10.5

SDST

W 65-58

−27.5

FUR

W 70-54

−17.5

NIU

W 70-57

−19.5

UCI

W 70-69

+0.5

LUC

W 72-51

−11.5

TLSA

L 60-63

−14.5

over 1under 6avg −14.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wichita St @ Northern Iowa

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wichita St

Northern Iowa

Wichita St

Northern Iowa