Georgia State Panthers vs New Mexico State Aggies: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 3:00 PM ETHard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya · Neutral site

#208GASTGeorgia St58final

Final

#133NMSUNew Mexico St77▲ winner

Closing lineNMSU -12.5✓ NMSU covered by 6.5

Closing total136.5Under by 1.5

Season records: Georgia St and New Mexico St
GAST	This season	NMSU
0-6	Record	3-0
2-4	ATS	3-0
1-5	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GAST 63–78 NMSU · ✓ NMSU (90%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GAST	28	30	58
NMSU	37	40	77

1st half: GAST 28, NMSU 37 (NMSU by 9). The model had NMSU by 8.8 and a total of 65.8 (actual 65).

Team stats

GAST		NMSU
21-67 31%	Field goals	29-76 38%
7-33 21%	3-pointers	9-23 39%
9-12 75%	Free throws	10-14 71%
39 11 off	Rebounds	49 18 off
9	Assists	12
6	Steals	9
2	Blocks	2
13	Turnovers	9
16	Fouls	17
24	Points in paint	34
13	Fast-break points	12

Players

GAST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Micah Tucker G	39	15	4	3	6-16	1-7
Malachi Brown G	37	9	6	5	2-9	0-5
Ayouba Berthe G	33	10	2	0	3-10	3-9
Joah Chappelle F	29	14	11	1	6-16	2-5
Christian Beam C	23	4	7	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Trey Scott F	22	3	3	0	1-6	1-5
Chris Jones G	8	0	2	0	0-2	0-1
Isaiah Sherrard F	5	3	0	0	1-3	0-1
James Cooper F	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Clash Peters, Kwame Tanic, Jakai Newton, Manos Koveos, Anthony Enoh, Jelani Hamilton

NMSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jemel Jones G	25	12	6	2	4-13	0-1
Julius Mims F	22	6	11	0	3-7	0-0
Cyr Malonga C	19	5	7	0	1-3	0-0
Gabe Pickens G	17	4	1	2	2-7	0-2
Anthony Wrzeszcz G	13	3	0	0	1-4	1-4
Bench
Jayland Randall G	23	9	5	3	3-8	3-5
Chris Terrell G	21	11	3	3	4-10	1-1
Elijah Elliott G	20	11	1	2	4-11	3-6
Kyrese Mullen F	17	6	5	0	3-6	0-1
Jae'Coby Osborne F	16	7	7	0	3-4	0-0
Amarco Doyle F	3	3	0	0	1-3	1-3
Teysean Eaglestaff F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Christian Villegas G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Omarr Smith, Augustine Ekwe

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NMSU -12.5	NMSU -14.8	NMSU +2.3	W NMSU covered
Total	136.5	140.4	Over 3.9	L Under
Projected score	—	GAST 62.8 · NMSU 77.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NMSU -8.8	NMSU -9.0
1H total	65.8	65
1H projected score	GAST 28.5 · NMSU 37.3	GAST 28 · NMSU 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
GAST WLWLL	2-4	33%	0-1	2-3
NMSU WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: GAST neutral site, as underdog; NMSU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST UUUOU	1-5	17%	0-6
NMSU OOU	2-1	67%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASTlast 6	0-6 0%	2-4 33%	1-5 17%
NMSUlast 3	3-0 100%	3-0 100%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Georgia St

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −9.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@EMU	L 49-71	+3.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 7	@CIN	L 64-74	+29.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsPRES	L 61-63	-3.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 17	@ASU	L 62-75	+18.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@SDST	L 58-105	+12.5	L −34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsSAM	L 63-78	+5.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−18.5

CIN

L 64-74

+19.5

PRES

L 61-63

−5.5

ASU

L 62-75

+5.5

SDST

L 58-105

−34.5

SAM

L 63-78

−9.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−29.5

CIN

L 64-74

−13.5

PRES

L 61-63

−17.5

ASU

L 62-75

−8.5

SDST

L 58-105

+19.5

SAM

L 63-78

−5.5

over 1under 5avg −9.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

New Mexico St

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-0

100% covers · avg +8.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg −8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight covers3 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 15	vsUNM	W 76-68	+3.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 21	vsSAM	W 81-72	-8.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 25	vsUCI	W 57-45	+2.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 102

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNM

W 76-68

+11.5

SAM

W 81-72

+0.5

UCI

W 57-45

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNM

W 76-68

+4.5

SAM

W 81-72

+7.5

UCI

W 57-45

−37.5

over 2under 1avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia St vs New Mexico St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Georgia St

New Mexico St

Georgia St

New Mexico St