Leo D. Mahoney Arena · at Fairfield
Closing line
FAIR -5.5✓ L-MD covered by 2.5
FAIR -5.5✓ L-MD covered by 2.5Closing total135.5Over by 31.5
 L-MD | This season | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 2-2 |
| 1-2 | ATS | 2-2 |
| 0-3 | O/U | 2-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: L-MD 68–73 FAIR · ✓ FAIR (66%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| L-MD | 32 | 50 | 82 |
| FAIR | 40 | 45 | 85 |
1st half: L-MD 32, FAIR 40 (FAIR by 8). The model had FAIR by 2.6 and a total of 66.3 (actual 72).
Team stats
| L-MD | FAIR | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-56 57% | Field goals | 34-69 49% |
| 6-21 29% | 3-pointers | 6-21 29% |
| 12-16 75% | Free throws | 11-19 58% |
| 31 5 off | Rebounds | 35 14 off |
| 11 | Assists | 14 |
| 4 | Steals | 6 |
| 5 | Blocks | 1 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| L-MD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Stiemke G | 35 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2-7 | 2-6 |
| Jacob Theodosiou G | 33 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 10-15 | 0-2 |
| Braeden Speed G | 31 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 7-10 | 0-3 |
| Sam Springer F | 27 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 5-6 | 1-2 |
| Everett Barnes F | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jonas Sirtautas F | 28 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Tyson Commander G | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Troy Cicero Jr. G | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-4 |
| Sebastien Emenalo F | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Carter Berg-McLean G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Emmett Adair, Ben Menker, Goap Kodi, Peter Sposito, Garrett Brennan
| FAIR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Mejia G | 33 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 5-8 | 0-1 |
| Deuce Turner G | 33 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 12-17 | 4-8 |
| Declan Wucherpfennig G | 33 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Braden Sparks G | 31 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 5-15 | 2-6 |
| Brandon Benjamin F | 30 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Halon Rawlins G | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Isaac Munkadi F | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Tony Williams G | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Michael Rogan G | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Nasir Rodriguez G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Aidan May, Tanner Ostop, Peyton Smith, Joe Ganton, Luke Davidson, Matt Curtis, Cam Estevez, Ryan Zan, Noah Best
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketFAIR -5.5
ModelFAIR -4.6
Model edgeL-MD +0.9
W L-MD covered
Total
Market135.5
Model141.4
Model edgeOver 5.9
W Over
Projected score
L-MD 68.4 · FAIR 73
L-MD 82 · FAIR 85
Win probability
FAIR 66%
1st half
Spread
FAIR -2.6
FAIR -8.0
Total
66.3
72 points
Projected score
L-MD 31.8 · FAIR 34.4
L-MD 32 · FAIR 40
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFAIR -3.5
2 → FAIR
CloseFAIR -5.5
2 pts toward FAIR
Total
Open131.5
▲ 4
Close135.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
L-MD +215 · FAIR -260
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FAIR -3.5 · closed FAIR -5.5 · moved 2 toward FAIRmodel FAIR -4.5
model FAIR -4.5
Opened 131.5 · closed 135.5 · moved 4 upmodel 141.5
model 141.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| L-MDlast 3 | 1-2 33% | 1-2 33% | 0-3 0% |
| FAIRlast 4 | 2-2 50% | 2-2 50% | 2-2 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
L-MD 1–0 FAIRL-MD leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · L-MD 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2021-22 | L-MD 75 @ FAIR 70 | FAIR -7.5 | L-MD W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Loyola MD
3 games played
Straight up
1-2
33% wins
Against the spread
1-2
33% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-3
0% overs · avg −9.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
TOW
TOWL 56-67
−2.5
11
vs
NJIT
NJITL 64-66
−12.5
15
vs
STO
STOW 74-63
+4.5
covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsTOW
TOWL 56-67
−18.5
11
vsNJIT
NJITL 64-66
−9.5
15
vsSTO
STOW 74-63
−1.5
over 0under 3avg −9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Fairfield
4 games played
Straight up
2-2
50% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-2
50% overs · avg −5.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
PSU
PSUL 68-76
+7.5
8
@NJIT
NJITW 74-53
+14.5
10
@
HALL
HALLL 59-82
−8.5
14
vsSTO
STOW 73-71
−4.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@PSU
PSUL 68-76
−7.5
8
@NJIT
NJITW 74-53
−18.5
10
@HALL
HALLL 59-82
+3.5
14
vsSTO
STOW 73-71
+0.5
over 2under 2avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Loyola MD
1-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Patriot League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Stonehill74–63
- Lvs NJIT64–66
- Lvs Towson56–67
1 day since their last game.
Fairfield
2-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Stonehill73–71
- L@ Seton Hall59–82
- W@ NJIT74–53
- L@ Penn State68–76
2 days since their last game.