Cal Poly Mustangs at Utah Utes: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 9:00 PM ETJon M. Huntsman Center · at Utah

#164CPCal Poly92▲ winner

Final

#73UTAHUtah85final

Closing lineUTAH -14.5✓ CP covered by 21.5

Closing total167.5Over by 9.5

Season records: Cal Poly and Utah
CP	This season	UTAH
1-3	Record	5-0
2-2	ATS	0-5
2-2	O/U	5-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CP 76–90 UTAH · ✗ UTAH (89%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CP	50	42	92
UTAH	39	46	85

1st half: CP 50, UTAH 39 (CP by 11). The model had UTAH by 8.3 and a total of 77.8 (actual 89).

Team stats

CP		UTAH
30-60 50%	Field goals	29-63 46%
14-25 56%	3-pointers	9-27 33%
18-31 58%	Free throws	18-22 82%
42 10 off	Rebounds	32 6 off
13	Assists	18
8	Steals	7
5	Blocks	5
19	Turnovers	16
21	Fouls	26
32	Points in paint	38
18	Fast-break points	20

Players

CP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cayden Ward G	33	28	8	1	9-14	3-5
Peter Bandelj G	33	11	4	5	4-13	2-5
Hamad Mousa G	26	26	3	1	8-13	4-4
Kieran Elliott G	21	2	6	0	1-2	0-0
Troy Plumtree F	12	0	2	0	0-2	0-1
Bench
Guzman Vasilic G	25	13	2	3	4-8	4-6
Jake Davis G	21	8	4	2	2-5	1-3
Ali Assran F	21	4	8	1	2-2	0-0
Austin Goode F	7	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Jason Scott G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jess Esso Essis, Braden Freeman, Eric Brown, Jackson Mosley, Aaron Price Jr., Luka Tarlac

UTAH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Terrence Brown G	35	29	1	3	11-18	2-5
Don McHenry G	31	16	2	2	5-14	1-5
Keanu Dawes F	30	10	9	2	3-5	1-2
Seydou Traore G	23	9	5	4	3-8	2-6
Josh Hayes F	13	6	2	1	2-3	0-0
Bench
Obomate Abbey G	21	0	3	5	0-3	0-1
Jacob Patrick G	18	7	0	0	2-6	2-6
James Okonkwo F	15	1	3	0	0-2	0-0
Kendyl Sanders F	14	7	2	1	3-4	1-2

Did not play: Ibrahima Traore, Alvin Jackson III, Jahki Howard, Jerry Huang, Elijah Moore, Babacar Faye

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UTAH -14.5	UTAH -14.0	CP +0.5	W CP covered
Total	167.5	166.1	Under 1.4	L Over
Projected score	—	CP 76 · UTAH 90

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UTAH -8.3	CP -11.0
1H total	77.8	89
1H projected score	CP 34.7 · UTAH 43	CP 50 · UTAH 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CP LWWL	2-2	50%	2-2	2-2
UTAH LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-5	0-5

Venue/role: CP away, as underdog; UTAH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CP UUOO	2-2	50%	1-3
UTAH OOOOO	5-0	100%	5-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CPlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
UTAHlast 5	5-0 100%	0-5 0%	5-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cal Poly

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@USC	L 64-94	+24.5	L −5.5	163.5	U 158
Nov 8	@SEA	W 73-71	+10.5	W +12.5	164.5	U 144
Nov 12	@CSU	L 79-93	+18.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 172
Nov 14	@MONT	L 82-90	+7.5	L −0.5	168.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 64-94

−5.5

SEA

W 73-71

+12.5

CSU

L 79-93

+4.5

MONT

L 82-90

−0.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 64-94

−5.5

SEA

W 73-71

−20.5

CSU

L 79-93

+6.5

MONT

L 82-90

+3.5

over 2under 2avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Utah

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

0-5

0% covers · avg −6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-0

100% overs · avg +10.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-0100%

O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSJSU	W 84-75	-11.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 8	vsWEB	W 92-89	-15.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 181
Nov 10	vsHC	W 87-69	-21.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 156
Nov 15	vsSHSU	W 85-79	-12.5	L −6.5	159.5	O 164
Nov 18	vsPFW	W 85-77	-13.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJSU

W 84-75

−2.5

WEB

W 92-89

−12.5

W 87-69

−3.5

SHSU

W 85-79

−6.5

PFW

W 85-77

−5.5

covered 0didn’t cover 5avg −6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJSU

W 84-75

+12.5

WEB

W 92-89

+32.5

W 87-69

+0.5

SHSU

W 85-79

+4.5

PFW

W 85-77

+0.5

over 5under 0avg +10.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cal Poly @ Utah

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Cal Poly

Utah

Cal Poly

Utah