T-Mobile Center · Neutral site
Closing line
MSST -2.5✓ KSU covered by 23.5
MSST -2.5✓ KSU covered by 23.5Closing total164.5Over by 10.5
| MSST | This season | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | Record | 4-0 |
| 0-3 | ATS | 1-3 |
| 1-2 | O/U | 4-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSST 83–82 KSU · ✗ MSST (56%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 36 | 41 | 77 |
| KSU | 44 | 54 | 98 |
1st half: MSST 36, KSU 44 (KSU by 8). The model had MSST by 1.1 and a total of 77.4 (actual 80).
Team stats
| MSST | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-60 43% | Field goals | 37-73 51% |
| 7-25 28% | 3-pointers | 14-30 47% |
| 18-23 78% | Free throws | 10-11 91% |
| 34 9 off | Rebounds | 38 12 off |
| 11 | Assists | 22 |
| 3 | Steals | 5 |
| 5 | Blocks | 4 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 32 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 7-15 | 1-6 |
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 30 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0-5 | 0-1 |
| Achor Achor F | 24 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 21 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 19 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jayden Epps G | 20 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 6-11 | 4-7 |
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 17 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| King Grace G | 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Sergej Macura F | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Brandon Walker F | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Amier Ali F | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Dellquan Warren G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul, Gai Chol
| KSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJ Haggerty G | 34 | 37 | 7 | 8 | 13-21 | 4-7 |
| Nate Johnson G | 29 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6-11 | 2-5 |
| Abdi Bashir Jr. G | 22 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4-10 | 4-6 |
| Elias Rapieque F | 19 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1-6 | 1-4 |
| Khamari McGriff F | 17 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| David Castillo G | 24 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-2 |
| Andrej Kostic G | 16 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Mobi Ikegwuruka F | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Dorin Buca C | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| CJ Jones G | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Taj Manning F | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Stephen Osei F | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Marcus Johnson, Exavier Wilson
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSST -2.5
no move
CloseMSST -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open161.5
▲ 3
Close164.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
MSST -135 · KSU +115
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSST -2.5 · unchangedmodel MSST -1.5
model MSST -1.5
Opened 161.5 · closed 164.5 · moved 3 upmodel 165
model 165
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MSST -2.5 | MSST -1.6 | KSU +0.9 | W KSU covered |
| Total | 164.5 | 165.2 | Over 0.7 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | MSST 83.4 · KSU 81.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MSST -1.1 | KSU -8.0 |
| 1H total | 77.4 | 80 |
| 1H projected score | MSST 39.3 · KSU 38.1 | MSST 36 · KSU 44 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSSTlast 3 | 2-1 67% | 0-3 0% | 1-2 33% |
| KSUlast 4 | 4-0 100% | 1-3 25% | 4-0 100% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mississippi St
3 games played
Straight up
2-1
67% wins
Against the spread
0-3
0% covers · avg −10.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-2
33% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vs
UNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vs
ISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vs
SELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
over 1under 2avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Kansas St
4 games played
Straight up
4-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-3
25% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-0
100% overs · avg +11.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vs
UNCG
UNCGW 93-64
+10.5
8
vs
BELL
BELLW 98-71
−1.5
13
vs
CAL
CALW 99-96
−3.5
17
vs
TLSA
TLSAW 84-83
−11.5
covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsUNCG
UNCGW 93-64
+8.5
8
vsBELL
BELLW 98-71
+0.5
13
vsCAL
CALW 99-96
+30.5
17
vsTLSA
TLSAW 84-83
+6.5
over 4under 0avg +11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mississippi St
2-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs SE Louisiana75–68
- Lvs Iowa State80–96
- Wvs North Alabama86–62
5 days since their last game.
Kansas St
4-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Tulsa84–83
- Wvs California99–96
- Wvs Bellarmine98–71
- Wvs UNC Greensboro93–64
3 days since their last game.