Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Arizona State Sun Devils: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 9, 9:00 PM ETDesert Financial Arena · at Arizona St

#321NAUN Arizona48final

Final

#60ASUArizona St73▲ winner

Closing lineASU -16.5✓ ASU covered by 8.5

Closing total154.5Under by 33.5

Season records: N Arizona and Arizona St
NAU	This season	ASU
2-4	Record	7-2
5-1	ATS	6-3
2-4	O/U	4-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NAU 67–84 ASU · ✓ ASU (94%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NAU	26	22	48
ASU	35	38	73

1st half: NAU 26, ASU 35 (ASU by 9). The model had ASU by 10.3 and a total of 70.6 (actual 61).

Team stats

NAU		ASU
17-51 33%	Field goals	26-52 50%
5-26 19%	3-pointers	6-19 32%
9-10 90%	Free throws	15-22 68%
25 4 off	Rebounds	41 10 off
8	Assists	15
10	Steals	6
4	Blocks	4
13	Turnovers	13
20	Fouls	10
22	Points in paint	40
4	Fast-break points	13

Players

NAU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Isaiah Shaw F	33	21	4	0	6-11	3-7
Ryan Abelman G	33	5	7	1	2-9	1-6
Zack Davidson F	28	12	0	1	6-8	0-1
Kavon Bradford G	23	0	2	1	0-1	0-0
Arne Osojnik F	20	7	2	2	2-9	1-5
Bench
Traivar Jackson F	19	0	4	0	0-2	0-0
Oakland Fort G	14	2	0	1	1-3	0-1
Karl Poom F	13	0	1	1	0-3	0-2
Diego Campisano F	11	1	1	1	0-5	0-4
Chris Komin G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Brennan Peterson G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Walker Timme, JT Amundsen, Erez Poran

ASU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Maurice Odum G	31	2	3	5	0-4	0-2
Massamba Diop C	24	19	6	3	8-10	0-0
Santiago Trouet F	22	12	8	0	5-7	0-0
Bryce Ford G	18	4	0	0	1-5	1-5
Andrija Grbovic F	15	3	6	2	1-3	1-3
Bench
Noah Meeusen G	23	5	1	2	2-4	1-3
Marcus Adams Jr. F	21	8	4	0	2-4	2-2
Allen Mukeba F	20	10	6	0	4-5	0-0
Anthony Johnson G	19	9	4	3	3-9	1-4
Trevor Best G	7	1	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Quentin McCoy, Kash Polk, Vijay Wallace, Dame Salane, Adante' Holiman, Jovan Icitovic

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ASU -16.5	ASU -17.3	ASU +0.8	W ASU covered
Total	154.5	150.9	Under 3.6	W Under
Projected score	—	NAU 66.8 · ASU 84.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ASU -10.3	ASU -9.0
1H total	70.6	61
1H projected score	NAU 30.2 · ASU 40.5	NAU 26 · ASU 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAU WWWLW	5-1	83%	2-0	4-1
ASU WWWLW	6-3	67%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: NAU away, as underdog; ASU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAU UOUUU	2-4	33%	2-4
ASU OOOOU	4-5	44%	7-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAUlast 6	2-4 33%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%
ASUlast 9	7-2 78%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NAU 0–1 ASUASU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NAU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 10, 2022-23	NAU 68 @ ASU 84	ASU -16.5	NAU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Arizona

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDRKE	L 71-77	+8.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 11	@ARIZ	L 49-84	+35.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 133
Nov 24	vsCP	W 93-87	+1.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 26	vsSEMO	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 151
Dec 3	vsSDST	L 62-75	+2.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 137
Dec 6	@NDSU	L 68-69	+12.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+2.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

+0.5

W 93-87

+7.5

SEMO

W 79-72

+4.5

SDST

L 62-75

−10.5

NDSU

L 68-69

+11.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+3.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

−30.5

W 93-87

+15.5

SEMO

W 79-72

−2.5

SDST

L 62-75

−11.5

NDSU

L 68-69

−10.5

over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Arizona St

9 games played

Straight up

7-2

78% wins

Against the spread

6-3

67% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-5

44% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-278%

W W L W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-367%

L W W L W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-544%

U U U U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsSUU	W 81-64	-17.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 9	vsUTU	W 81-66	-12.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 14	vsGONZ	L 65-77	+13.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 142
Nov 17	vsGAST	W 75-62	-18.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 20	@HAW	W 83-76	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 24	vsTEX	W 87-86	+6.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 173
Nov 25	vsWSU	W 100-94	-4.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 194
Nov 26	vsUSC	L 75-88	+4.5	L −8.5	161.5	O 163
Dec 6	vsOU	W 86-70	+5.5	W +21.5	157.5	U 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−0.5

UTU

W 81-66

+2.5

GONZ

L 65-77

+1.5

GAST

W 75-62

−5.5

HAW

W 83-76

+8.5

TEX

W 87-86

+7.5

WSU

W 100-94

+1.5

USC

L 75-88

−8.5

W 86-70

+21.5

covered 6didn’t cover 3avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−6.5

UTU

W 81-66

−5.5

GONZ

L 65-77

−16.5

GAST

W 75-62

−8.5

HAW

W 83-76

+15.5

TEX

W 87-86

+19.5

WSU

W 100-94

+36.5

USC

L 75-88

+1.5

W 86-70

−1.5

over 4under 5avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

N Arizona @ Arizona St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Arizona

Arizona St

N Arizona

Arizona St