Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina
Closing line
UNC -34.5✓ UNC covered by 9.5
UNC -34.5✓ UNC covered by 9.5Closing total159.5Under by 9.5
 NCCU | This season | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | Record | 3-0 |
| 1-2 | ATS | 2-1 |
| 1-2 | O/U | 2-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NCCU 63–95 UNC · ✓ UNC (100%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCCU | 24 | 29 | 53 |
| UNC | 39 | 58 | 97 |
1st half: NCCU 24, UNC 39 (UNC by 15). The model had UNC by 18.9 and a total of 74.1 (actual 63).
Team stats
| NCCU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 16-66 24% | Field goals | 30-55 55% |
| 7-26 27% | 3-pointers | 11-28 39% |
| 14-20 70% | Free throws | 26-35 74% |
| 30 14 off | Rebounds | 51 12 off |
| 10 | Assists | 21 |
| 6 | Steals | 1 |
| 2 | Blocks | 14 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 21 | Fouls | 15 |
| 12 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| NCCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gage Lattimore G | 38 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 4-19 | 4-12 |
| Dionte Johnson G | 21 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Khouri Carvey F | 17 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Kyric Davis G | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Jonathan Dunn F | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ramondo Battle II F | 25 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 4-8 | 2-4 |
| Kelechi Okworogwo F | 24 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1-7 | 0-2 |
| Tekao Carpenter G | 24 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Ryan Archey G | 15 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Jae Slack G | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Justin Edwards G | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Gbenga Olubi F | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Camren Daniels G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Caleb Ellison G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Khalil Arnold
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson F | 29 | 21 | 13 | 3 | 7-8 | 1-1 |
| Kyan Evans G | 27 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Luka Bogavac G | 25 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4-7 | 2-5 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 24 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jonathan Powell G | 19 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Derek Dixon G | 16 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Zayden High F | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| James Brown C | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaydon Young G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Denis G | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Evan Smith G | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| John Holbrook F | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Elijah Davis G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Ivan Matlekovic C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Seth Trimble
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUNC -34.5
ModelUNC -31.4
Model edgeNCCU +3.1
L UNC covered
Total
Market159.5
Model158.3
Model edgeUnder 1.2
W Under
Projected score
NCCU 63.4 · UNC 94.8
NCCU 53 · UNC 97
Win probability
UNC 100%
1st half
Spread
UNC -18.9
UNC -15.0
Total
74.1
63 points
Projected score
NCCU 27.6 · UNC 46.5
NCCU 24 · UNC 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNC -36.5
2 → NCCU
CloseUNC -34.5
2 pts toward NCCU
Total
Open160.5
▼ 1
Close159.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNC -36.5 · closed UNC -34.5 · moved 2 toward NCCUmodel UNC -31.5
model UNC -31.5
Opened 160.5 · closed 159.5 · moved 1 downmodel 158.5
model 158.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCCUlast 3 | 0-3 0% | 1-2 33% | 1-2 33% |
| UNClast 3 | 3-0 100% | 2-1 67% | 2-1 67% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
NC Central
3 games played
Straight up
0-3
0% wins
Against the spread
1-2
33% covers · avg −4.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-2
33% overs · avg +6.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
NCSU
NCSUL 66-114
−16.5
7
@
UVA
UVAL 62-81
+15.5
9
@
APP
APPL 54-76
−11.5
covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@NCSU
NCSUL 66-114
+34.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 62-81
−8.5
9
@APP
APPL 54-76
−6.5
over 1under 2avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
North Carolina
3 games played
Straight up
3-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-1
67% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-1
67% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
CARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vs
KU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vs
RAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
over 2under 1avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
NC Central
0-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ App State54–76
- L@ Virginia62–81
- L@ NC State66–114
5 days since their last game.
North Carolina
3-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Radford89–74
- Wvs Kansas87–74
- Wvs C Arkansas94–54
3 days since their last game.