Santa Clara Broncos vs Saint Louis Billikens: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 27, 7:00 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

Final

#69SLUSaint Louis71▲ winner

Closing lineSLU -1.5✓ SCU covered by 0.5

Closing total158.5Under by 17.5

Season records: Santa Clara and Saint Louis
SCU	This season	SLU
5-0	Record	5-0
4-1	ATS	4-1
1-4	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SCU 80–80 SLU · ✓ SLU (50%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SCU	35	35	70
SLU	31	40	71

1st half: SCU 35, SLU 31 (SCU by 4). The model had SCU by 0.1 and a total of 74.8 (actual 66).

Team stats

SCU		SLU
23-62 37%	Field goals	26-59 44%
6-25 24%	3-pointers	7-27 26%
18-22 82%	Free throws	12-19 63%
37 12 off	Rebounds	37 10 off
10	Assists	15
7	Steals	7
5	Blocks	2
12	Turnovers	11
18	Fouls	17
32	Points in paint	38
9	Fast-break points	12

Players

SCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Elijah Mahi F	36	18	7	1	6-14	2-5
Christian Hammond G	31	11	3	1	2-8	1-2
Brenton Knapper G	28	9	2	2	3-11	1-6
Bukky Oboye C	26	7	6	0	3-5	1-1
Jake Ensminger G	25	4	4	3	1-4	0-2
Bench
Allen Graves F	17	13	1	0	5-8	1-2
Thierry Darlan G	13	1	3	3	0-1	0-0
Sash Gavalyugov G	12	2	3	0	1-6	0-5
KJ Cochran G	8	2	2	0	1-4	0-2
Francis Chukwudebelu C	4	3	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Noah Badibanga, Malachi Douyon, Brad Longcor III, Juan Reyna, Chris Tadjo, Gehrig Normand, Brendan Yarusso

SLU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Robbie Avila C	32	9	5	5	2-7	1-3
Trey Green G	31	21	3	1	7-14	6-13
Dion Brown G	28	13	5	1	5-9	0-2
Quentin Jones G	28	5	4	2	2-7	0-3
Amari McCottry G	12	3	1	1	1-4	0-0
Bench
Paul Otieno F	28	7	7	2	3-5	0-0
Kellen Thames G	18	11	8	3	5-5	0-0
Ishan Sharma F	17	0	0	0	0-4	0-4
Brady Dunlap F	6	2	1	0	1-4	0-2

Did not play: Badara Diakite, Luke Laczkowski, Cam Hutson, Jax Kerr, Dylan Warlick, Kalu Anya, Jaden Schertz, Isaac Holmes

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SLU -1.5	SLU -0.1	SCU +1.4	W SCU covered
Total	158.5	159.8	Over 1.3	L Under
Projected score	—	SCU 79.8 · SLU 79.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SCU -0.1	SCU -4.0
1H total	74.8	66
1H projected score	SCU 37.4 · SLU 37.3	SCU 35 · SLU 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SCU WWWLW	4-1	80%	—	1-0
SLU WLWWW	4-1	80%	—	4-1

Venue/role: SCU neutral site, as underdog; SLU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SCU UUOUU	1-4	20%	5-0
SLU OOOUU	3-2	60%	5-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SCUlast 5	5-0 100%	4-1 80%	1-4 20%
SLUlast 5	5-0 100%	4-1 80%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SCU 1–0 SLUSCU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SCU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 4, 2024-25	SLU 78 vs SCU 85	SCU -1.5	SCU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Santa Clara

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +9.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsMCN	W 79-67	-6.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 10	@XAV	W 87-68	+3.5	W +22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 15	vsNEV	W 98-83	-6.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsIDST	W 64-55	-14.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 119
Nov 21	vsUL	W 80-43	-19.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

+5.5

XAV

W 87-68

+22.5

NEV

W 98-83

+8.5

IDST

W 64-55

−5.5

W 80-43

+17.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +9.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

−5.5

XAV

W 87-68

−0.5

NEV

W 98-83

+36.5

IDST

W 64-55

−22.5

W 80-43

−17.5

over 1under 4avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Saint Louis

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-180%

W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSEMO	W 92-67	-19.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 6	vsCHST	W 108-86	-30.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 194
Nov 10	vsLIN	W 109-66	-24.5	W +18.5	165.5	O 175
Nov 15	vsGCU	W 78-64	-8.5	W +5.5	167.5	U 142
Nov 21	vsPFW	W 91-60	-19.5	W +11.5	166.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SEMO

W 92-67

+5.5

CHST

W 108-86

−8.5

LIN

W 109-66

+18.5

GCU

W 78-64

+5.5

PFW

W 91-60

+11.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SEMO

W 92-67

+5.5

CHST

W 108-86

+38.5

LIN

W 109-66

+9.5

GCU

W 78-64

−25.5

PFW

W 91-60

−15.5

over 3under 2avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Santa Clara vs Saint Louis

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Santa Clara

Saint Louis

Santa Clara

Saint Louis