Rider Broncs at Houston Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 9:00 PM ETFertitta Center · at Houston

#347RIDRider45final

Final

#2HOUHouston AP #291▲ winner

Closing lineHOU -40.5✓ HOU covered by 5.5

Closing total134.5Over by 1.5

Season records: Rider and Houston
RID	This season	HOU
0-3	Record	4-0
0-3	ATS	1-3
1-2	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: RID 48–87 HOU · ✓ HOU (100%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
RID	25	20	45
HOU	47	44	91

1st half: RID 25, HOU 47 (HOU by 22). The model had HOU by 23.6 and a total of 63.3 (actual 72).

Team stats

RID		HOU
16-52 31%	Field goals	37-66 56%
4-17 24%	3-pointers	10-26 38%
9-9 100%	Free throws	7-7 100%
32 12 off	Rebounds	33 9 off
8	Assists	23
5	Steals	13
2	Blocks	7
23	Turnovers	7
11	Fouls	12
20	Points in paint	46
7	Fast-break points	25

Players

RID	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Caleb Smith G	34	13	5	0	3-11	1-2
Zion Cruz G	33	9	2	3	4-11	1-4
Flash Burton G	19	0	2	1	0-2	0-2
Cole McCabe F	13	2	4	0	1-3	0-1
Mohamad Diallo F	10	2	1	0	1-3	0-0
Bench
Devean Williams G	26	8	4	2	3-5	2-4
Davis Bynum F	19	4	2	2	2-7	0-2
Shemani Fuller F	14	7	0	0	2-2	0-0
AB Coulibaly G	11	0	0	0	0-2	0-0
Daniel Helterhoff F	8	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
Antwan Wilson G	8	0	2	0	0-3	0-2
Jamir McNeil G	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Maurizio D'Alessandro, Xaviel Rodriguez, Kristupas Kepežinskas

HOU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kingston Flemings G	31	18	0	5	8-10	2-2
Emanuel Sharp G	24	15	2	5	5-12	3-8
Milos Uzan G	24	8	2	6	3-8	1-5
Joseph Tugler F	20	12	9	2	6-8	0-0
Chris Cenac Jr. F	15	12	1	1	5-5	2-2
Bench
Chase McCarty F	26	8	6	1	3-9	2-6
Mercy Miller G	25	14	2	1	6-10	0-1
Kalifa Sakho F	17	0	7	1	0-0	0-0
Ramon Walker Jr. G	14	4	4	1	1-4	0-2
Cedric Lath C	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Bryce Jackson, Jacob McFarland, Kordel Jefferson, Isiah Harwell

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HOU -40.5	HOU -39.3	RID +1.2	L HOU covered
Total	134.5	135.0	Over 0.5	W Over
Projected score	—	RID 47.9 · HOU 87.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HOU -23.6	HOU -22.0
1H total	63.3	72
1H projected score	RID 19.9 · HOU 43.4	RID 25 · HOU 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RID LLL	0-3	0%	0-3	0-3
HOU LLWL	1-3	25%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: RID away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
RID UUO	1-2	33%	0-3
HOU UUUO	1-3	25%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RIDlast 3	0-3 0%	0-3 0%	1-2 33%
HOUlast 4	4-0 100%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rider

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

0-3

0% covers · avg −6.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

0-30%

L L L

3 straight misses ATS0 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UVA	L 53-87	+26.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 5	@RUTG	L 53-81	+18.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 134
Nov 18	@TEX	L 65-99	+30.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−7.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−9.5

TEX

L 65-99

−3.5

covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−8.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−5.5

TEX

L 65-99

+20.5

over 1under 2avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Houston

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −8.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLEH	W 75-57	-36.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsTOW	W 65-48	-26.5	L −9.5	130.5	U 113
Nov 12	vsOAK	W 78-45	-30.5	W +2.5	138.5	U 123
Nov 16	vsAUB	W 73-72	-7.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−18.5

TOW

W 65-48

−9.5

OAK

W 78-45

+2.5

AUB

W 73-72

−6.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−4.5

TOW

W 65-48

−17.5

OAK

W 78-45

−15.5

AUB

W 73-72

+4.5

over 1under 3avg −8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rider @ Houston

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Rider

Houston

Rider

Houston