Harvard Crimson at Penn State Nittany Lions: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 6:30 PM ETBryce Jordan Center · at Penn State

#136HARVHarvard80final

Final

#78PSUPenn State84▲ winner

Closing linePSU -12.5✓ HARV covered by 8.5

Closing total142.5Over by 21.5

Season records: Harvard and Penn State
HARV	This season	PSU
3-1	Record	4-0
2-2	ATS	2-2
1-3	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: HARV 65–79 PSU · ✓ PSU (89%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
HARV	38	42	80
PSU	35	49	84

1st half: HARV 38, PSU 35 (HARV by 3). The model had PSU by 8.2 and a total of 67.6 (actual 73).

Team stats

HARV		PSU
30-57 53%	Field goals	31-57 54%
12-27 44%	3-pointers	5-19 26%
8-8 100%	Free throws	17-25 68%
25 9 off	Rebounds	28 13 off
21	Assists	12
4	Steals	9
3	Blocks	0
13	Turnovers	7
18	Fouls	12
32	Points in paint	50
4	Fast-break points	10

Players

HARV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tey Barbour G	37	12	7	1	5-9	2-5
Ben Eisendrath G	37	15	1	2	6-7	1-2
Chandler Pigge G	35	21	5	9	6-11	3-5
Thomas Batties II F	34	17	3	6	6-12	5-7
Robert Hinton G	17	2	1	0	1-7	0-5
Bench
Frankie Mannino G	15	2	1	3	1-1	0-0
Kenan Parrish F	9	0	1	0	0-3	0-2
Ryan Sullivan F	7	6	2	0	3-3	0-0
Luca Ace-Nasteski F	7	2	1	0	1-3	0-0
Xavier Nesbitt G	2	3	1	0	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Joseph Quartey, Avner Dror, Alex Touomou, Dutch Dowdell, Austin Hunt, Payton Pitts, Greg Cooper

PSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kayden Mingo G	31	24	2	3	8-18	1-7
Ivan Juric F	30	7	9	0	3-3	1-1
Melih Tunca G	29	10	2	6	4-6	0-1
Josh Reed F	27	14	5	0	4-5	0-1
Eli Rice G	15	5	1	0	2-5	1-3
Bench
Freddie Dilione V G	27	13	2	2	5-10	1-1
Dominick Stewart G	18	3	1	0	1-5	1-5
Tibor Mirtic F	15	6	0	1	3-3	0-0
Sasa Ciani F	8	2	3	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Chris Lotito, Reggie Grodin, Justin Houser, Mason Blackwood

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PSU -12.5	PSU -13.8	PSU +1.3	L HARV covered
Total	142.5	144.2	Over 1.7	W Over
Projected score	—	HARV 65.2 · PSU 79

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PSU -8.2	HARV -3.0
1H total	67.6	73
1H projected score	HARV 29.7 · PSU 37.9	HARV 38 · PSU 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HARV LLWW	2-2	50%	2-0	1-0
PSU LWLW	2-2	50%	0-2	2-2

Venue/role: HARV away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HARV OUUU	1-3	25%	3-1
PSU UUUO	1-3	25%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HARVlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
PSUlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Harvard

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsUNH	W 86-75	-15.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsNE	L 60-77	-5.5	L −22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	@ARMY	W 75-52	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 16	@MRST	W 56-54	+6.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 110

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

−4.5

L 60-77

−22.5

ARMY

W 75-52

+16.5

MRST

W 56-54

+8.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

+13.5

L 60-77

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-52

−19.5

MRST

W 56-54

−20.5

over 1under 3avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Penn State

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAIR	W 76-68	-15.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NHVN	W 87-43	-18.5	W +25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsNAVY	W 80-71	-11.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsLAS	W 83-69	-8.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

+25.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−2.5

LAS

W 83-69

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

−13.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−4.5

LAS

W 83-69

+6.5

over 1under 3avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Harvard @ Penn State

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Harvard

Penn State

Harvard

Penn State