Princeton Tigers vs Bradley Braves: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 7:00 PM ETState Farm Field House · Neutral site

#135PRINPrinceton64final

Final

#167BRADBradley88▲ winner

Closing lineBRAD -9.5✓ BRAD covered by 14.5

Closing total141.5Over by 10.5

Season records: Princeton and Bradley
PRIN	This season	BRAD
2-3	Record	2-3
3-2	ATS	1-4
2-3	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PRIN 69–75 BRAD · ✓ BRAD (70%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PRIN	34	30	64
BRAD	40	48	88

1st half: PRIN 34, BRAD 40 (BRAD by 6). The model had BRAD by 3.5 and a total of 67.3 (actual 74).

Team stats

PRIN		BRAD
22-45 49%	Field goals	30-55 55%
7-23 30%	3-pointers	14-30 47%
13-21 62%	Free throws	14-20 70%
34 9 off	Rebounds	24 4 off
15	Assists	13
3	Steals	14
1	Blocks	1
24	Turnovers	9
16	Fouls	19
26	Points in paint	30
0	Fast-break points	13

Players

PRIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jackson Hicke G	31	15	4	0	6-11	0-4
Jack Stanton G	29	16	7	2	5-8	3-5
Landon Clark G	27	2	2	3	1-6	0-5
Malik Abdullahi F	23	3	2	1	0-2	0-0
CJ Happy F	20	8	3	3	3-5	2-4
Bench
Jacob Huggins F	17	1	2	2	0-2	0-0
Sebastian Whitfield G	16	6	4	0	3-5	0-1
Cash McSweeney F	14	0	4	2	0-0	0-0
Jacob Hammond F	10	6	1	2	2-4	0-2
Jake Sussberg G	8	7	1	0	2-2	2-2
Peyton Seals G	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Ryan Mandes G	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Zio Kim G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Cooper Mueller, Dalen Davis, Will Kutzler

BRAD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Alex Huibregtse G	31	11	0	2	4-8	3-6
Timoty van der Knaap G	27	15	8	0	5-8	2-4
Jaquan Johnson G	22	13	3	3	5-10	1-4
AJ Smith F	20	5	2	2	2-4	1-2
Corey Thomas F	18	5	1	0	1-1	1-1
Bench
Montana Wheeler G	25	16	0	6	6-8	4-6
Ahmet Jonovic C	19	6	3	0	2-5	0-0
Demarion Burch G	18	7	1	0	3-7	1-4
Kai Yu C	8	3	1	0	0-1	0-1
Dietrich Richardson G	5	3	1	0	1-2	0-1
Matthew Zobrist G	3	4	0	0	1-1	1-1
Gus Rugaard G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Handy Toussaint III F	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jackson Seastrunk, Gustavo Guimares

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BRAD -9.5	BRAD -6.0	PRIN +3.5	L BRAD covered
Total	141.5	143.6	Over 2.1	W Over
Projected score	—	PRIN 68.8 · BRAD 74.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BRAD -3.5	BRAD -6.0
1H total	67.3	74
1H projected score	PRIN 31.9 · BRAD 35.4	PRIN 34 · BRAD 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
PRIN LWWLW	3-2	60%	—	1-2
BRAD LWLLL	1-4	20%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: PRIN neutral site, as underdog; BRAD neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRIN OUUOU	2-3	40%	2-3
BRAD UUOUO	2-3	40%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRINlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
BRADlast 5	2-3 40%	1-4 20%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Princeton

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AKR	L 69-104	+13.5	L −21.5	156.5	O 173
Nov 11	vsBUCK	W 73-63	-4.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 15	@KU	L 57-76	+22.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	@IONA	L 69-89	+2.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 20	vsNE	W 70-57	-2.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

−21.5

BUCK

W 73-63

+5.5

L 57-76

+3.5

IONA

L 69-89

−17.5

W 70-57

+10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

+16.5

BUCK

W 73-63

−10.5

L 57-76

−11.5

IONA

L 69-89

+3.5

W 70-57

−18.5

over 2under 3avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bradley

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-420%

L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSBU	L 63-69	+1.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCMU	W 85-54	-9.5	W +21.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 12	vsUTM	L 67-78	-15.5	L −26.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 15	@SF	L 64-75	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 139
Nov 19	vsUML	W 87-77	-21.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SBU

L 63-69

−4.5

CMU

W 85-54

+21.5

UTM

L 67-78

−26.5

L 64-75

−1.5

UML

W 87-77

−11.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SBU

L 63-69

−7.5

CMU

W 85-54

−8.5

UTM

L 67-78

+0.5

L 64-75

−7.5

UML

W 87-77

+14.5

over 2under 3avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Princeton vs Bradley

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Princeton

Bradley

Princeton

Bradley