Wisconsin Badgers vs TCU Horned Frogs: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 5:30 PM ETJenny Craig Pavilion · Neutral site

Final

#40TCUTCU74▲ winner

Closing lineWIS -5.5✓ TCU covered by 16.5

Closing total157.5Under by 20.5

Season records: Wisconsin and TCU
WIS	This season	TCU
5-1	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	4-2
5-1	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WIS 79–76 TCU · ✗ WIS (63%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WIS	37	26	63
TCU	41	33	74

1st half: WIS 37, TCU 41 (TCU by 4). The model had WIS by 2.4 and a total of 72.6 (actual 78).

Team stats

WIS		TCU
20-58 34%	Field goals	28-60 47%
7-28 25%	3-pointers	8-14 57%
16-18 89%	Free throws	10-16 63%
35 8 off	Rebounds	37 8 off
10	Assists	15
9	Steals	6
3	Blocks	7
17	Turnovers	13
15	Fouls	16
24	Points in paint	36
12	Fast-break points	10

Players

WIS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nolan Winter F	36	3	10	3	0-3	0-2
John Blackwell G	34	30	6	0	8-22	3-8
Nick Boyd G	33	15	1	3	6-13	1-4
Andrew Rohde G	31	7	3	1	3-6	1-4
Austin Rapp F	22	2	5	1	1-6	0-3
Bench
Braeden Carrington G	18	6	1	0	2-5	2-5
Jack Janicki G	13	0	0	2	0-1	0-1
Aleksas Bieliauskas F	10	0	6	0	0-2	0-1
Will Garlock F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Zach Kinziger, Jack Robison, Riccardo Greppi, Elijah Gray, Isaac Gard, Hayden Jones

TCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brock Harding G	36	16	4	5	6-9	2-3
Jayden Pierre G	32	11	3	4	4-11	2-2
David Punch F	32	17	9	2	7-11	1-1
Liutauras Lelevicius F	28	11	5	1	4-5	3-4
Xavier Edmonds F	18	12	3	1	6-8	0-0
Bench
Micah Robinson G	28	7	4	1	1-5	0-2
Jace Posey G	14	0	7	0	0-7	0-0
Tanner Toolson G	12	0	0	1	0-4	0-2

Did not play: Trey Stuart, RJ Jones, Ashton Simmons, Adam Stewart, Drew McElroy, Vianney Salatchoum, Kayden Edwards, Malick Diallo

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WIS -5.5	WIS -3.8	TCU +1.7	W TCU covered
Total	157.5	155.1	Under 2.4	W Under
Projected score	—	WIS 79.4 · TCU 75.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WIS -2.4	TCU -4.0
1H total	72.6	78
1H projected score	WIS 37.5 · TCU 35.1	WIS 37 · TCU 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WIS LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-0	3-2
TCU WLWWW	4-2	67%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: WIS neutral site, as favorite; TCU neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS OUOOO	5-1	83%	5-1
TCU OUUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WISlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	5-1 83%
TCUlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wisconsin

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +7.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-183%

O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCAM	W 96-64	-20.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 7	vsNIU	W 97-72	-28.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 11	vsBALL	W 86-55	-26.5	W +4.5	156.5	U 141
Nov 17	vsSIUE	W 94-69	-25.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 163
Nov 21	@BYU	L 70-98	+4.5	L −23.5	165.5	O 168
Nov 27	vsPROV	W 104-83	-6.5	W +14.5	166.5	O 187

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAM

W 96-64

+11.5

NIU

W 97-72

−3.5

BALL

W 86-55

+4.5

SIUE

W 94-69

−0.5

BYU

L 70-98

−23.5

PROV

W 104-83

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAM

W 96-64

+8.5

NIU

W 97-72

+11.5

BALL

W 86-55

−15.5

SIUE

W 94-69

+16.5

BYU

L 70-98

+2.5

PROV

W 104-83

+20.5

over 5under 1avg +7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

TCU

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNOLA	L 74-78	-21.5	L −25.5	149.5	O 152
Nov 6	vsSFPA	W 104-63	-27.5	W +13.5	153.5	O 167
Nov 10	vsLAM	W 78-65	-18.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 143
Nov 14	vsMICH	L 63-67	+7.5	W +3.5	164.5	U 130
Nov 19	vsKC	W 81-45	-23.5	W +12.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 27	vsFLA	W 84-80	+11.5	W +15.5	155.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NOLA

L 74-78

−25.5

SFPA

W 104-63

+13.5

LAM

W 78-65

−5.5

MICH

L 63-67

+3.5

W 81-45

+12.5

FLA

W 84-80

+15.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NOLA

L 74-78

+2.5

SFPA

W 104-63

+13.5

LAM

W 78-65

−4.5

MICH

L 63-67

−34.5

W 81-45

−24.5

FLA

W 84-80

+8.5

over 3under 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wisconsin vs TCU

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Wisconsin

TCU

Wisconsin

TCU