Baylor Bears vs San Diego State Aztecs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 10:30 PM ETMichelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site

#29BAYBaylor91▲ winner

Final

Closing lineBAY -2.5✓ BAY covered by 7.5

Closing total148.5Over by 23.5

Season records: Baylor and San Diego St
BAY	This season	SDSU
4-1	Record	3-2
2-3	ATS	2-3
4-1	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BAY 82–75 SDSU · ✓ BAY (73%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BAY	40	51	91
SDSU	36	45	81

1st half: BAY 40, SDSU 36 (BAY by 4). The model had BAY by 4.3 and a total of 73.8 (actual 76).

Team stats

BAY		SDSU
30-57 53%	Field goals	28-59 47%
9-23 39%	3-pointers	11-26 42%
22-30 73%	Free throws	14-17 82%
36 10 off	Rebounds	29 6 off
18	Assists	20
6	Steals	5
1	Blocks	3
9	Turnovers	10
14	Fouls	22
38	Points in paint	26
16	Fast-break points	17

Players

BAY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Obi Agbim G	37	18	2	4	5-10	4-8
Cameron Carr G	35	17	6	3	5-11	2-4
Dan Skillings Jr. G	34	11	8	5	4-6	1-3
Tounde Yessoufou G	31	18	7	2	7-14	1-5
Michael Rataj G	27	9	5	2	4-6	0-1
Bench
Isaac Williams IV G	19	13	1	2	4-8	1-2
Caden Powell C	17	5	4	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Andre Iguodala II, Maikcol Perez, Mayo Soyoye, Drew Perry, JJ White, Juslin Bodo Bodo, Will Kuykendall, James Goodis

SDSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Miles Byrd G	27	13	4	2	5-12	2-8
Reese Dixon-Waters G	23	12	0	4	4-12	3-9
Miles Heide F	22	0	4	1	0-1	0-0
Elzie Harrington G	20	12	1	3	4-9	3-3
Magoon Gwath F	9	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
BJ Davis G	21	11	2	1	4-7	0-2
Sean Newman Jr. G	17	10	3	6	2-6	0-1
Jeremiah Oden F	17	6	7	0	2-3	2-2
Pharaoh Compton F	16	4	2	0	2-3	0-0
Taj DeGourville G	15	7	1	3	2-3	1-1
Tae Simmons F	13	6	1	0	3-3	0-0

Did not play: Raymar Gonzales, Thokbor Majak, Latrell Davis, Cam Lawin

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BAY -2.5	BAY -6.9	BAY +4.4	W BAY covered
Total	148.5	157.7	Over 9.2	W Over
Projected score	—	BAY 82.3 · SDSU 75.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BAY -4.3	BAY -4.0
1H total	73.8	76
1H projected score	BAY 39.1 · SDSU 34.8	BAY 40 · SDSU 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
BAY LWLWL	2-3	40%	1-1	2-2
SDSU WLLLW	2-3	40%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: BAY neutral site, as favorite; SDSU neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY OUOOO	4-1	80%	4-1
SDSU UUOUO	2-3	40%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAYlast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	4-1 80%
SDSUlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Baylor

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −4.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +11.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-180%

O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsRGV	W 96-81	-24.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 177
Nov 9	vsWASH	W 78-69	-6.5	W +2.5	156.5	U 147
Nov 14	vsTAR	W 94-81	-23.5	L −10.5	149.5	O 175
Nov 24	vsCREI	W 81-74	-3.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 155
Nov 25	vsSJU	L 81-96	+5.5	L −9.5	159.5	O 177

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RGV

W 96-81

−9.5

WASH

W 78-69

+2.5

TAR

W 94-81

−10.5

CREI

W 81-74

+3.5

SJU

L 81-96

−9.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RGV

W 96-81

+22.5

WASH

W 78-69

−9.5

TAR

W 94-81

+25.5

CREI

W 81-74

+0.5

SJU

L 81-96

+17.5

over 4under 1avg +11.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Diego St

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +18.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLBSU	W 77-45	-25.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 9	vsIDST	W 73-57	-21.5	L −5.5	135.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsTROY	L 107-108	-14.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 215
Nov 24	vsMICH	L 54-94	+6.5	L −33.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 25	vsORE	W 97-80	+2.5	W +19.5	141.5	O 177

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

+6.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

−15.5

MICH

L 54-94

−33.5

ORE

W 97-80

+19.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

−13.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

+77.5

MICH

L 54-94

−0.5

ORE

W 97-80

+35.5

over 2under 3avg +18.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Baylor vs San Diego St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Baylor

San Diego St

Baylor

San Diego St