Green Bay Phoenix vs Iona Gaels: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 3:00 PM ETUVI Sports & Fitness Center · Neutral site

#226GBGreen Bay80▲ winner

Final

#233IONAIona75final

Closing lineIONA -5.5✓ GB covered by 10.5

Closing total150.5Over by 4.5

Season records: Green Bay and Iona
GB	This season	IONA
1-5	Record	5-1
3-3	ATS	4-2
2-4	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GB 77–82 IONA · ✗ IONA (66%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GB	33	47	80
IONA	36	39	75

1st half: GB 33, IONA 36 (IONA by 3). The model had IONA by 2.7 and a total of 74.2 (actual 69).

Team stats

GB		IONA
25-64 39%	Field goals	25-62 40%
10-28 36%	3-pointers	11-28 39%
20-26 77%	Free throws	14-19 74%
39 13 off	Rebounds	42 12 off
14	Assists	15
5	Steals	1
4	Blocks	6
5	Turnovers	8
18	Fouls	16
26	Points in paint	28
12	Fast-break points	10

Players

GB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
C.J. O'Hara G	40	17	6	1	6-13	0-1
Preston Ruedinger G	38	9	6	7	3-6	3-4
Caden Wilkins F	25	10	9	0	3-12	2-8
LeBron Thomas G	9	2	1	1	0-3	0-1
Maruan Cicic C	5	0	2	1	0-2	0-0
Bench
Justin Allen G	36	28	3	1	8-16	4-9
Mac Wrecke G	27	14	4	1	5-9	1-4
Vukasin Todorovic F	15	0	3	2	0-3	0-1
Ramel Bethea F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Rob Stroud, Trey Schachter, Keegan Van Kauwenberg, Brady Fitzgerald, Dontrell Hewlett, Marcus Hall, Josh Hines

IONA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
CJ Anthony G	30	10	7	7	2-13	1-6
Lamin Sabally F	29	14	10	2	4-8	0-0
Denver Anglin G	28	4	1	2	1-7	1-4
Keshawn Williams G	24	10	4	3	4-8	2-3
Alliou Fall F	21	8	7	1	4-7	0-0
Bench
Toby Harris F	24	13	6	0	4-11	3-9
Luke Jungers F	17	11	2	0	4-5	3-4
Chase Cormier G	15	3	1	0	1-2	1-2
Khalil Badru G	8	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Matt Reed F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Oscar Hourruitiner Jr., Ore Odutayo, Marko Pandiloski, Deondrea Lindsey, Kosy Akametu, Connor Horan

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	IONA -5.5	IONA -4.7	GB +0.8	W GB covered
Total	150.5	158.3	Over 7.8	W Over
Projected score	—	GB 76.8 · IONA 81.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IONA -2.7	IONA -3.0
1H total	74.2	69
1H projected score	GB 35.7 · IONA 38.4	GB 33 · IONA 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
GB LLWWW	3-3	50%	2-0	3-3
IONA WLWLW	4-2	67%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: GB neutral site, as underdog; IONA neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB OUUUO	2-4	33%	1-5
IONA OUOUO	4-2	67%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GBlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
IONAlast 6	5-1 83%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Green Bay

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@KU	L 51-94	+30.5	L −12.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 7	@BUF	L 76-83	+3.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 159
Nov 13	@STMN	L 61-80	+13.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@MINN	L 65-72	+25.5	W +18.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 21	vsYALE	L 67-73	+17.5	W +11.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 22	vsMASS	W 79-75	+5.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-94

−12.5

BUF

L 76-83

−3.5

STMN

L 61-80

−5.5

MINN

L 65-72

+18.5

YALE

L 67-73

+11.5

MASS

W 79-75

+9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-94

−7.5

BUF

L 76-83

+11.5

STMN

L 61-80

−9.5

MINN

L 65-72

−9.5

YALE

L 67-73

−8.5

MASS

W 79-75

+7.5

over 2under 4avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Iona

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsHOF	W 81-73	+1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 154
Nov 11	@KC	W 105-91	-4.5	W +9.5	156.5	O 196
Nov 14	vsFOR	W 76-71	-5.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 147
Nov 18	vsPRIN	W 89-69	-2.5	W +17.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 21	vsAKR	L 75-96	+11.5	L −9.5	173.5	U 171
Nov 22	vsORST	W 91-84	+3.5	W +10.5	157.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOF

W 81-73

+9.5

W 105-91

+9.5

FOR

W 76-71

−0.5

PRIN

W 89-69

+17.5

AKR

L 75-96

−9.5

ORST

W 91-84

+10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOF

W 81-73

+9.5

W 105-91

+39.5

FOR

W 76-71

−10.5

PRIN

W 89-69

+3.5

AKR

L 75-96

−2.5

ORST

W 91-84

+17.5

over 4under 2avg +9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Green Bay vs Iona

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Green Bay

Iona

Green Bay

Iona