Furman Paladins vs Illinois State Redbirds: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 3:00 PM ETState Farm Field House · Neutral site

#152FURFurman65final

Final

#116ILSTIllinois St72▲ winner

Closing lineILST -3.5✓ ILST covered by 3.5

Closing total145.5Under by 8.5

Season records: Furman and Illinois St
FUR	This season	ILST
2-3	Record	4-2
2-3	ATS	3-3
2-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: FUR 69–75 ILST · ✓ ILST (69%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
FUR	36	29	65
ILST	33	39	72

1st half: FUR 36, ILST 33 (FUR by 3). The model had ILST by 3.3 and a total of 67.7 (actual 69).

Team stats

FUR		ILST
25-55 45%	Field goals	26-57 46%
9-25 36%	3-pointers	8-24 33%
6-11 55%	Free throws	12-18 67%
30 6 off	Rebounds	35 9 off
15	Assists	11
3	Steals	6
2	Blocks	6
13	Turnovers	10
16	Fouls	13
28	Points in paint	28
9	Fast-break points	7

Players

FUR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cooper Bowser F	30	12	5	0	6-10	0-0
Charles Johnston F	30	4	8	2	2-6	0-3
Alex Wilkins G	30	25	0	5	9-17	2-6
Asa Thomas G	29	6	2	3	2-9	2-8
Ben Vander Wal F	25	3	5	1	1-2	0-0
Bench
Tom House G	22	0	1	2	0-2	0-2
Eddrin Bronson G	18	3	0	2	1-5	1-2
Collin O'Neal G	16	12	4	0	4-4	4-4

Did not play: Abijah Franklin, Owen Ritger, Cole Bowser, Gunnar Lewis, Mason Smith, Thomas Tillman, Davis Molnar

ILST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Johnny Kinziger G	38	11	3	2	5-12	1-4
Boden Skunberg G	31	12	3	1	3-8	3-6
Ty'Reek Coleman G	31	9	1	4	4-10	1-4
Ty Pence G	31	20	10	2	8-12	2-3
Chase Walker F	21	14	4	2	4-6	1-2
Bench
Brandon Lieb F	13	2	3	0	1-1	0-0
Cameron Barnes F	10	2	6	0	1-2	0-0
Landon Wolf G	10	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
Mason Klabo G	9	2	0	0	0-2	0-1
Jack Daugherty F	4	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Landon Moore G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Nick Allen, Isaac Ericksen, Ty Blake

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ILST -3.5	ILST -5.8	ILST +2.3	W ILST covered
Total	145.5	144.6	Under 0.9	W Under
Projected score	—	FUR 69.4 · ILST 75.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ILST -3.3	FUR -3.0
1H total	67.7	69
1H projected score	FUR 32.2 · ILST 35.5	FUR 36 · ILST 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
FUR LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-1	1-2
ILST WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	3-1

Venue/role: FUR neutral site, as underdog; ILST neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
FUR OUUOU	2-3	40%	2-3
ILST UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FURlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%
ILSTlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Furman

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHPU	L 71-97	+3.5	L −22.5	153.5	O 168
Nov 7	vsTROY	L 61-64	-2.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 125
Nov 14	@UNI	L 54-70	+9.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 23	vsQUC	W 90-79	-8.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 27	vsRICH	W 73-72	+3.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HPU

L 71-97

−22.5

TROY

L 61-64

−5.5

UNI

L 54-70

−6.5

QUC

W 90-79

+2.5

RICH

W 73-72

+4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HPU

L 71-97

+14.5

TROY

L 61-64

−27.5

UNI

L 54-70

−17.5

QUC

W 90-79

+15.5

RICH

W 73-72

−2.5

over 2under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Illinois St

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +5.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −4.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@OHIO	L 68-72	+1.5	L −2.5	161.5	U 140
Nov 9	vsCOR	W 76-65	-6.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 14	vsUSC	L 67-87	+15.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 154
Nov 16	@LBSU	W 82-80	-8.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 23	vsCCU	W 94-42	-12.5	W +39.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 27	vsCLT	W 79-69	-5.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OHIO

L 68-72

−2.5

COR

W 76-65

+4.5

USC

L 67-87

−4.5

LBSU

W 82-80

−6.5

CCU

W 94-42

+39.5

CLT

W 79-69

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OHIO

L 68-72

−21.5

COR

W 76-65

−23.5

USC

L 67-87

−1.5

LBSU

W 82-80

+20.5

CCU

W 94-42

−10.5

CLT

W 79-69

+8.5

over 2under 4avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Furman vs Illinois St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Furman

Illinois St

Furman

Illinois St