Virginia Tech Hokies vs VCU Rams: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 10:30 AM ETImperial Arena · Neutral site

Final

#61VCUVCU86▲ winner

Closing lineVCU -2.5✓ VCU covered by 15.5

Closing total153.5Over by 0.5

Season records: Virginia Tech and VCU
VT	This season	VCU
6-1	Record	4-3
3-4	ATS	4-3
3-4	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: VT 76–78 VCU · ✓ VCU (58%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
VT	35	33	68
VCU	45	41	86

1st half: VT 35, VCU 45 (VCU by 10). The model had VCU by 1.2 and a total of 72.3 (actual 80).

Team stats

VT		VCU
24-54 44%	Field goals	30-57 53%
7-16 44%	3-pointers	11-21 52%
13-23 57%	Free throws	15-22 68%
28 8 off	Rebounds	36 10 off
14	Assists	13
10	Steals	8
4	Blocks	3
13	Turnovers	14
20	Fouls	16
30	Points in paint	32
10	Fast-break points	6

Players

VT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ben Hammond G	36	7	0	5	2-10	0-0
Tyler Johnson G	33	16	3	1	5-8	2-3
Amani Hansberry F	32	16	4	2	6-10	1-1
Neo Avdalas G	31	8	3	5	3-6	1-3
Jailen Bedford G	17	0	1	0	0-3	0-2
Bench
Jaden Schutt G	23	15	1	0	5-9	3-7
Izaiah Pasha G	13	4	2	0	2-5	0-0
Antonio Dorn C	11	2	5	1	1-1	0-0
Christian Gurdak C	2	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
Sin'Cere Jones F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Tobi Lawal, Brett Freeman, Shamarius Peterkin, Solomon Davis

VCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Lazar Djokovic F	31	11	5	1	3-9	1-2
Nyk Lewis G	28	7	4	1	3-5	1-3
Jadrian Tracey G	25	13	2	2	5-10	3-5
Brandon Jennings G	24	9	1	1	3-3	0-0
Barry Evans F	24	17	5	3	8-14	1-3
Bench
Michael Belle F	21	5	6	3	2-6	0-2
Terrence Hill Jr. G	21	21	3	1	6-7	5-5
Keyshawn Mitchell F	9	2	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ahmad Nowell G	8	0	2	1	0-2	0-1
Tyrell Ward G	5	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Jordan Tillery G	3	1	1	0	0-1	0-0
Jordann Dumont F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Obinnaya Okafor, Christian Fermin

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	VCU -2.5	VCU -2.3	VT +0.2	L VCU covered
Total	153.5	154.4	Over 0.9	W Over
Projected score	—	VT 76.1 · VCU 78.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VCU -1.2	VCU -10.0
1H total	72.3	80
1H projected score	VT 35.5 · VCU 36.8	VT 35 · VCU 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
VT WLLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	1-1
VCU LWWWL	4-3	57%	1-2	3-1

Venue/role: VT neutral site, as underdog; VCU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT UOUUU	3-4	43%	6-1
VCU UUOUO	3-4	43%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VTlast 7	6-1 86%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
VCUlast 7	4-3 57%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Virginia Tech

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg +5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCHSO	W 98-67	-18.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 165
Nov 8	vsPROV	W 107-101	+2.5	W +8.5	157.5	O 208
Nov 12	vsJOES	W 94-59	-12.5	W +22.5	158.5	U 153
Nov 16	vsCLT	W 84-76	-18.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 19	vsBRY	W 78-61	-24.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 26	vsCSU	W 66-64	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 130
Nov 27	vsSMC	L 66-77	+5.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHSO

W 98-67

+12.5

PROV

W 107-101

+8.5

JOES

W 94-59

+22.5

CLT

W 84-76

−10.5

BRY

W 78-61

−7.5

CSU

W 66-64

−2.5

SMC

L 66-77

−5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHSO

W 98-67

+18.5

PROV

W 107-101

+50.5

JOES

W 94-59

−5.5

CLT

W 84-76

+14.5

BRY

W 78-61

−12.5

CSU

W 66-64

−23.5

SMC

L 66-77

−1.5

over 3under 4avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

VCU

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWAG	W 103-74	-25.5	W +3.5	133.5	O 177
Nov 7	vsUSU	L 77-80	+2.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 12	vsSPU	W 78-61	-20.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 17	@NCSU	L 79-85	+11.5	W +5.5	164.5	U 164
Nov 22	vsCOPP	W 101-58	-32.5	W +10.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 26	vsUSF	W 78-66	-1.5	W +10.5	172.5	U 144
Nov 27	vsVAN	L 74-89	+6.5	L −8.5	161.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAG

W 103-74

+3.5

USU

L 77-80

−0.5

SPU

W 78-61

−3.5

NCSU

L 79-85

+5.5

COPP

W 101-58

+10.5

USF

W 78-66

+10.5

VAN

L 74-89

−8.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAG

W 103-74

+43.5

USU

L 77-80

−6.5

SPU

W 78-61

−8.5

NCSU

L 79-85

−0.5

COPP

W 101-58

+7.5

USF

W 78-66

−28.5

VAN

L 74-89

+1.5

over 3under 4avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Virginia Tech vs VCU

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Virginia Tech

VCU

Virginia Tech

VCU