First National Bank Arena · at Arkansas St
Closing line
ARST -4.5✓ ARST covered by 6.5
ARST -4.5✓ ARST covered by 6.5Closing total155.5Under by 18.5
 JXST | This season | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-2 | ATS | 3-2 |
| 2-0 | O/U | 3-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: JXST 77–81 ARST · ✓ ARST (66%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| JXST | 32 | 31 | 63 |
| ARST | 38 | 36 | 74 |
1st half: JXST 32, ARST 38 (ARST by 6). The model had ARST by 2.8 and a total of 74.0 (actual 70).
Team stats
| JXST | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-55 36% | Field goals | 21-52 40% |
| 4-25 16% | 3-pointers | 9-26 35% |
| 19-29 66% | Free throws | 23-29 79% |
| 37 12 off | Rebounds | 34 7 off |
| 9 | Assists | 17 |
| 7 | Steals | 11 |
| 3 | Blocks | 2 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 23 | Fouls | 24 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 22 |
Players
| JXST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Bryant G | 30 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Iaroslav Niagu F | 22 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Jaye Nash G | 20 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Ben Vungo G | 18 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-2 |
| Jacoby Hill G | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mostapha El Moutaouakkil G | 25 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 3-11 | 0-3 |
| Toby Nnadozie G | 19 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Emondrek Erkins-Ford F | 19 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-2 |
| Marcus Fitzgerald Jr. G | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Jamar Franklin G | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-7 | 1-7 |
| Connor Loy G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jordan Vick, Aidan Driggers, Thomas Tut, Aitor Anabitarte
| ARST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Harmon G | 31 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 5-9 | 4-7 |
| Chandler Jackson G | 29 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Jaxon Ellingsworth F | 24 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 4-10 | 2-4 |
| Aly Tounkara F | 19 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Royal Blue Smith G | 18 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-6 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Hampton G | 25 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Matt Hayman G | 24 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2-9 | 1-7 |
| T.J. Caldwell G | 22 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Chudi Dioramma F | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Fredy-Salam Sylla, CJ Geathers, Weston Honeycutt, Tim Matthews, Grayson Bennett, Joey Chammaa
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketARST -4.5
ModelARST -4.8
Model edgeARST +0.3
W ARST covered
Total
Market155.5
Model158.0
Model edgeOver 2.5
L Under
Projected score
JXST 76.6 · ARST 81.4
JXST 63 · ARST 74
Win probability
ARST 66%
1st half
Spread
ARST -2.8
ARST -6.0
Total
74.0
70 points
Projected score
JXST 35.6 · ARST 38.4
JXST 32 · ARST 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARST -2.5
2 → ARST
CloseARST -4.5
2 pts toward ARST
Total
Open148.5
▲ 7
Close155.5
Up 7 since the open
Moneyline
JXST +175 · ARST -210
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARST -2.5 · closed ARST -4.5 · moved 2 toward ARSTmodel ARST -5
model ARST -5
Opened 148.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 7 upmodel 158
model 158
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| JXSTlast 2 | 1-1 50% | 0-2 0% | 2-0 100% |
| ARSTlast 5 | 2-3 40% | 3-2 60% | 3-2 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Jax State
2 games played
Straight up
1-1
50% wins
Against the spread
0-2
0% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-0
100% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
14
vs
CCU
CCUW 74-67
−0.5
19
vs
USA
USAL 65-71
−8.5
covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
14
vsCCU
CCUW 74-67
+1.5
19
vsUSA
USAL 65-71
+0.5
over 2under 0avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Arkansas St
5 games played
Straight up
2-3
40% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-2
60% overs · avg +7.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+7.5
7
@
SFA
SFAL 65-90
−26.5
11
@
MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+2.5
19
@
SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@
SMU
SMUL 69-100
−16.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+14.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−0.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+18.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−3.5
over 3under 2avg +7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Jax State
1-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs South Alabama65–71
- Wvs Coastal74–67
5 days since their last game.
Arkansas St
2-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ SMU69–100
- L@ Saint Mary's72–85
- W@ Missouri St86–85
- L@ SF Austin65–90
- W@ Ohio89–85
3 days since their last game.