Alabama A&M Bulldogs at Prairie View A&M Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 26, 7:00 PM ETWilliam J. Nicks Building · at Prairie View · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Alabama A&M and Prairie View
AAMU	This season	PV
7-9	Record	4-12
9-7	ATS	9-7
8-8	O/U	7-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PV 77–76 · win probability PV 54%

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AAMU has more of the edges

AAMU 5, PV 2 · 2025-26 so far

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: AAMU plays 67.6 a game (250th fastest), PV 72.7 (20th). Faster games mean more points

AAMUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: AAMU 27.4%, PV 26.7%. Defensive: AAMU 70.5%, PV 64.6%

PVSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: AAMU 16.5%, PV 15.8%. Forced: AAMU 16.6%, PV 19.0%

AAMUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: AAMU 51%, PV 6%. Transfers in: AAMU 2, PV 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

AAMUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: AAMU 3-2 ATS, margin +3.2; PV 1-4 ATS, margin -1.4

PVSmall

Home court

PV at home. This season: PV 2-1 at home, AAMU 1-6 away

AAMUSmall

Three-pointers

AAMU hits 35.0% and allows 35.4%; PV hits 32.9% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 34.0% and 30.6% of their shots

AAMUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: AAMU 45.4, PV 41.6. Allowed: AAMU 38.6, PV 42.6

Even

AAMU offense vs PV defense

Offense 325th of 366 against a defense 359th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

AAMU has played the 363rd-hardest schedule, PV the 331st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: AAMU 49.2 and allows 52.1; PV 47.4 and allows 50.9

Even

PV offense vs AAMU defense

Offense 310th of 366 against a defense 305th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rest

AAMU 2 days since its last game, PV 2

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PV -1.0	—
Total	—	152.3	—
Projected score	—	AAMU 75.7 · PV 76.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PV -0.5	—
1H total	71.3	—
1H projected score	AAMU 35.4 · PV 35.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AAMU WLWWL	9-7	56%	2-5	—
PV LWLLL	9-7	56%	1-2	—

Venue/role: AAMU away; PV home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
AAMU UUOUO	8-8	50%	7-9
PV UUUUO	7-9	44%	4-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AAMU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
PV	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

AAMU 2–2 PVSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · AAMU 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 27, 2024-25	PV 82 @ AAMU 98	AAMU -2.5	AAMU W
Jan 29, 2023-24	AAMU 76 @ PV 87	PV -7.5	PV W
Jan 23, 2022-23	PV 59 @ AAMU 67	AAMU +2.5	AAMU W
Jan 24, 2021-22	AAMU 48 @ PV 72	PV -6	PV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alabama A&M

16 games played

Straight up

7-9

44% wins

Against the spread

9-7

56% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-8

50% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-944%

L W W L L W L W L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-756%

L W W L W W L W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-850%

O U U O U U O U O O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@IU	L 51-98	+30.5	L −16.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 13	vsCHSO	W 68-64	-1.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 132
Nov 16	vsLIN	W 74-65	-3.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 139
Nov 28	@CLEM	L 56-92	+27.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 30	@CCU	L 60-67	+7.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 127
Dec 3	vsTNST	W 80-53	+4.5	W +31.5	147.5	U 133
Dec 7	@LIP	L 58-92	+11.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 150
Dec 15	vsUNA	W 68-60	+4.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 128
Dec 17	vsMISS	L 66-80	+20.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 146
Dec 21	vsUTC	L 66-73	+2.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 139
Jan 3	@UAPB	L 83-95	-1.5	L −13.5	149.5	O 178
Jan 5	@MVSU	W 71-51	-10.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 122
Jan 10	vsALCN	L 62-64	-9.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 126
Jan 12	vsJKST	W 100-91	-6.5	W +2.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 19	vsALST	W 73-69	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 142
Jan 24	@TXSO	L 74-89	-1.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-98

−16.5

CHSO

W 68-64

+2.5

LIN

W 74-65

+5.5

CLEM

L 56-92

−8.5

CCU

L 60-67

+0.5

TNST

W 80-53

+31.5

LIP

L 58-92

−22.5

UNA

W 68-60

+12.5

MISS

L 66-80

+6.5

UTC

L 66-73

−4.5

UAPB

L 83-95

−13.5

MVSU

W 71-51

+9.5

ALCN

L 62-64

−11.5

JKST

W 100-91

+2.5

ALST

W 73-69

+5.5

TXSO

L 74-89

−16.5

covered 9didn’t cover 7avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-98

+1.5

CHSO

W 68-64

−20.5

LIN

W 74-65

−10.5

CLEM

L 56-92

+6.5

CCU

L 60-67

−13.5

TNST

W 80-53

−14.5

LIP

L 58-92

+3.5

UNA

W 68-60

−12.5

MISS

L 66-80

+10.5

UTC

L 66-73

+0.5

UAPB

L 83-95

+28.5

MVSU

W 71-51

−13.5

ALCN

L 62-64

−14.5

JKST

W 100-91

+50.5

ALST

W 73-69

−4.5

TXSO

L 74-89

+17.5

over 8under 8avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Prairie View

16 games played

Straight up

4-12

25% wins

Against the spread

9-7

56% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-9

44% overs · avg +1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-1225%

L L L L W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-756%

L W W W L W L W W W W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-944%

O U U U O U O O O U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@WICH	L 62-105	+20.5	L −22.5	156.5	O 167
Nov 12	@OKST	L 67-94	+30.5	W +3.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 17	@MIZ	L 73-91	+35.5	W +17.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 22	vsUTM	L 68-69	+10.5	W +9.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 23	vsUNF	W 85-82	-3.5	L −0.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 30	@UNT	L 69-72	+16.5	W +13.5	141.5	U 141
Dec 13	@SDAK	L 85-97	+6.5	L −5.5	168.5	O 182
Dec 22	@LSU	L 90-104	+29.5	W +15.5	161.5	O 194
Dec 29	@TA&M	L 82-111	+29.5	W +0.5	177.5	O 193
Jan 3	@GRAM	L 72-76	+7.5	W +3.5	155.5	U 148
Jan 5	@SOU	W 89-85	+7.5	W +11.5	160.5	O 174
Jan 10	vsMVSU	W 70-69	-18.5	L −17.5	152.5	U 139
Jan 12	vsUAPB	W 73-61	-3.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 134
Jan 17	@JKST	L 78-82	+1.5	L −2.5	160.5	U 160
Jan 19	@ALCN	L 75-76	-2.5	L −3.5	152.5	U 151
Jan 24	vsALST	L 80-95	+1.5	L −13.5	158.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WICH

L 62-105

−22.5

OKST

L 67-94

+3.5

MIZ

L 73-91

+17.5

UTM

L 68-69

+9.5

UNF

W 85-82

−0.5

UNT

L 69-72

+13.5

SDAK

L 85-97

−5.5

LSU

L 90-104

+15.5

TA&M

L 82-111

+0.5

GRAM

L 72-76

+3.5

SOU

W 89-85

+11.5

MVSU

W 70-69

−17.5

UAPB

W 73-61

+8.5

JKST

L 78-82

−2.5

ALCN

L 75-76

−3.5

ALST

L 80-95

−13.5

covered 9didn’t cover 7avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WICH

L 62-105

+10.5

OKST

L 67-94

−7.5

MIZ

L 73-91

−2.5

UTM

L 68-69

−18.5

UNF

W 85-82

+6.5

UNT

L 69-72

−0.5

SDAK

L 85-97

+13.5

LSU

L 90-104

+32.5

TA&M

L 82-111

+15.5

GRAM

L 72-76

−7.5

SOU

W 89-85

+13.5

MVSU

W 70-69

−13.5

UAPB

W 73-61

−30.5

JKST

L 78-82

−0.5

ALCN

L 75-76

−1.5

ALST

L 80-95

+16.5

over 7under 9avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Alabama A&M 1, Prairie View 1, even 3

Alabama A&MBetterPrairie View

G S. Pissis10.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 38

AAMUSmall

G D. Williams TR7.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 14

G J. Graham9.8 pts · 4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 41

PVBig

G M. Eley TR13 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 98

G J. Edwards TR6.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 9

Even

G S. Tidor TR4.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 21

G G. Kincy3.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 3

Even

G E. Mitchell2.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 7

G B. Abdur-Rahman4.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 65

No call

F J. Wharton TR1.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

Alabama A&MBetterPrairie View

AAMU offense325th of 366 · -10.6

Even

PV defense359th of 366 · -10.4

AAMU defense305th of 366 · -7.8

Even

PV offense310th of 366 · -9.7

Backcourt-8.1 · 5 players

PVBig

Backcourt-2.4 · 4 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player

Bench-3.2 · 3 players

PVBig

Bench+0.0 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestAAMU betterPV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Alabama A&M

Guards

S. Pissis30 minJ. Graham25 minJ. Edwards23 min · TRG. Kincy19 minB. Abdur-Rahman12 minN. Johnson10 min · TR

Forwards

S. Onu7 minS. WalkerNewD. MeriwetherNewK. PaulNewD. BrownNew

Prairie View

Guards

D. Williams26 min · TRM. Eley19 min · TRS. Tidor12 min · TRE. Mitchell12 minJ. LeeNewM. BellNew

Forwards

J. Wharton7 min · TRJ. Fazande1 min · TRE. PageNewD. BynumNewB. AjieroNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

AAMU71.4 #261

PV74.8 #170

Points per possession

AAMU1.05 #240

PV1.03 #286

Pace (possessions)

AAMU67.6 #250

PV72.7 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

AAMU49.2 #281

PV47.4 #330

3-point %

AAMU35.0 #114

PV32.9 #237

3-point attempt rate

AAMU34.0 #295

PV30.6 #348

Free throw rate

AAMU45.4 #3

PV41.6 #35

Possessions

Turnover rate

AAMU16.5 #167

PV15.8 #122

Offensive rebound rate

AAMU27.4 #283

PV26.7 #305

Assists per game

AAMU11.2 #328

PV10.8 #341

Defense

Points allowed

AAMU73.9 #152

PV78.9 #295

Points allowed per possession

AAMU1.09 #212

PV1.08 #182

Opponent effective FG%

AAMU52.1 #220

PV50.9 #149

Opponent 3-point %

AAMU35.4 #272

PV35.0 #247

Turnovers forced

AAMU16.6 #176

PV19.0 #49

Defensive rebound rate

AAMU70.5 #138

PV64.6 #344

Steals per game

AAMU6.2 #211

PV7.0 #127

Blocks per game

AAMU2.7 #271

PV4.9 #19

AAMU		PV
Scoring
71.4 #261	Points per game	74.8 #170
1.05 #240	Points per possession	1.03 #286
67.6 #250	Pace (possessions)	72.7 #20
Shooting
49.2 #281	Effective FG%	47.4 #330
35.0 #114	3-point %	32.9 #237
34.0 #295	3-point attempt rate	30.6 #348
45.4 #3	Free throw rate	41.6 #35
Possessions
16.5 #167	Turnover rate	15.8 #122
27.4 #283	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #305
11.2 #328	Assists per game	10.8 #341
Defense
73.9 #152	Points allowed	78.9 #295
1.09 #212	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #182
52.1 #220	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #149
35.4 #272	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #247
16.6 #176	Turnovers forced	19.0 #49
70.5 #138	Defensive rebound rate	64.6 #344
6.2 #211	Steals per game	7.0 #127
2.7 #271	Blocks per game	4.9 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alabama A&M

7-9 overall · 3-3 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Texas Southern74–89
Wvs Alabama St73–69
Wvs Jackson St100–91
Lvs Alcorn St62–64
W@ Miss Valley St71–51

2 days since their last game.

Prairie View

4-12 overall · 3-4 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alabama St80–95
L@ Alcorn St75–76
L@ Jackson St78–82
Wvs AR-Pine Bluff73–61
Wvs Miss Valley St70–69

2 days since their last game.

Alabama A&M Bulldogs at Prairie View A&M Panthers

What could decide it: AAMU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Alabama A&M

Prairie View

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Alabama A&M

Prairie View