Nicholls Colonels at Tulane Green Wave: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 3:00 PM ETAvron B. Fogelman Arena in the Devlin Fieldhouse · at Tulane

#285NICHNicholls72final

Final

#130TULNTulane82▲ winner

Closing lineTULN -8.5✓ TULN covered by 1.5

Closing total148.5Over by 5.5

Season records: Nicholls and Tulane
NICH	This season	TULN
0-5	Record	4-2
2-3	ATS	2-4
2-3	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NICH 71–79 TULN · ✓ TULN (76%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NICH	36	36	72
TULN	46	36	82

1st half: NICH 36, TULN 46 (TULN by 10). The model had TULN by 4.7 and a total of 70.5 (actual 82).

Team stats

NICH		TULN
26-53 49%	Field goals	28-54 52%
9-21 43%	3-pointers	9-25 36%
11-26 42%	Free throws	17-25 68%
33 8 off	Rebounds	34 8 off
15	Assists	20
11	Steals	7
3	Blocks	4
11	Turnovers	12
20	Fouls	17
22	Points in paint	34
11	Fast-break points	13

Players

NICH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Sincere Malone F	39	13	2	5	5-7	0-1
Jalik Dunkley F	35	14	15	2	5-8	1-1
Jalin Rice G	22	8	3	1	3-11	0-3
Christian Winborne G	8	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Grant Sanders F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Trae English G	33	12	3	5	4-11	1-3
Jaylen Searles G	26	22	3	1	8-12	6-9
Zaiden Cross G	23	3	1	1	1-3	1-3
Zee Hamoda G	8	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Domanic Betancourt F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jordan Matthews, Chaydon Stone, Kevin Pazmino, Nick Krass

TULN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Asher Woods G	37	19	5	2	6-10	2-5
Scotty Middleton F	35	11	4	3	4-6	3-5
Tyler Ringgold F	31	14	7	1	5-10	0-3
Curtis Williams Jr. G	29	16	4	0	6-11	1-5
Rowan Brumbaugh G	24	8	2	3	3-8	1-3
Bench
KJ Greene G	25	6	3	7	1-3	0-2
Josiah Moore G	10	8	0	3	3-3	2-2
Percy Daniels C	9	0	1	1	0-3	0-0

Did not play: Robert Moore, Joseph Teich, Vasilije Kuridza, Luke Rasmussen, Luke Cronin, Jake Shapiro, Davion Bradford

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TULN -8.5	TULN -8.1	NICH +0.4	L TULN covered
Total	148.5	150.6	Over 2.1	W Over
Projected score	—	NICH 71.2 · TULN 79.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TULN -4.7	TULN -10.0
1H total	70.5	82
1H projected score	NICH 32.9 · TULN 37.6	NICH 36 · TULN 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NICH WLLLW	2-3	40%	2-3	2-2
TULN LLLLW	2-4	33%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: NICH away, as underdog; TULN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NICH UUUOO	2-3	40%	0-5
TULN OUUOO	4-2	67%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NICHlast 5	0-5 0%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%
TULNlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NICH 0–1 TULNTULN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NICH 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 6, 2023-24	NICH 81 @ TULN 91	TULN -13.5	NICH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nicholls

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@UK	L 51-77	+31.5	W +5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	@EIU	L 57-65	-2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 12	@VAL	L 63-68	+2.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 15	@MUR	L 79-99	+14.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 22	@OKST	L 81-95	+23.5	W +9.5	155.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-77

+5.5

EIU

L 57-65

−10.5

VAL

L 63-68

−2.5

MUR

L 79-99

−5.5

OKST

L 81-95

+9.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-77

−29.5

EIU

L 57-65

−13.5

VAL

L 63-68

−13.5

MUR

L 79-99

+20.5

OKST

L 81-95

+20.5

over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tulane

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +9.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

W L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSAM	W 85-72	-7.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsTXST	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 150
Nov 11	@UL	W 66-62	-5.5	L −1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	vsNOLA	L 63-85	-11.5	L −33.5	153.5	U 148
Nov 21	vsUSU	L 75-96	+8.5	L −12.5	151.5	O 171
Nov 23	vsBC	W 93-90	+2.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+5.5

TXST

W 79-71

−4.5

W 66-62

−1.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−33.5

USU

L 75-96

−12.5

W 93-90

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+2.5

TXST

W 79-71

+3.5

W 66-62

−7.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−5.5

USU

L 75-96

+19.5

W 93-90

+42.5

over 4under 2avg +9.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nicholls @ Tulane

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Nicholls

Tulane

Nicholls

Tulane