UC Davis Aggies at Oregon Ducks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 13, 4:00 PM ETMatthew Knight Arena · at Oregon

#182UCDUC Davis62final

Final

#57OREOregon104▲ winner

Closing lineORE -13.5✓ ORE covered by 28.5

Closing total146.5Over by 19.5

Season records: UC Davis and Oregon
UCD	This season	ORE
4-3	Record	4-5
3-3	ATS	0-9
3-3	O/U	5-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UCD 67–79 ORE · ✓ ORE (84%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UCD	16	46	62
ORE	52	52	104

1st half: UCD 16, ORE 52 (ORE by 36). The model had ORE by 6.8 and a total of 68.4 (actual 68).

Team stats

UCD		ORE
20-57 35%	Field goals	37-61 61%
7-26 27%	3-pointers	10-21 48%
15-19 79%	Free throws	20-27 74%
21 7 off	Rebounds	43 14 off
12	Assists	22
7	Steals	9
1	Blocks	5
14	Turnovers	12
21	Fouls	16
20	Points in paint	48
9	Fast-break points	16

Players

UCD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Connor Sevilla G	27	5	3	1	2-10	1-5
Isaiah Chappell F	25	5	1	0	2-7	1-6
Nils Cooper G	22	4	1	1	2-7	0-1
Niko Rocak F	21	6	5	2	2-5	0-2
Marcus Wilson G	16	6	0	1	1-5	0-2
Bench
Carl Daughtery Jr. G	25	15	2	0	5-10	2-5
Brayden Fagbemi G	19	9	2	4	3-5	2-3
Jalen Stokes G	19	9	3	1	2-2	1-1
Omer Suljanovic F	12	3	4	0	1-4	0-1
Chase Rawlins G	7	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Cyril Franklin Jr. G	5	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Abdullah Amzil F	2	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ylan Esso-Essis, Jonathan Noudjihidi

ORE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jackson Shelstad G	30	21	4	9	7-13	3-6
Kwame Evans Jr. F	28	14	13	3	5-5	2-2
Takai Simpkins G	26	18	2	2	7-8	3-4
Dez Lindsay F	26	8	5	1	0-3	0-2
Nate Bittle C	7	4	1	0	2-5	0-2
Bench
Sean Stewart F	21	8	4	4	3-4	0-0
Wei Lin G	21	8	0	1	3-7	1-3
Ege Demir C	19	15	11	0	7-12	0-0
Oleksandr Kobzystyi F	10	3	1	1	1-2	0-1
Jamari Phillips G	7	2	2	1	1-1	0-0
Drew Carter G	5	3	0	0	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Luke Johnson, Devon Pryor, Efe Vatan, JJ Frakes, Rian Gonzales, Miles Stewart

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ORE -13.5	ORE -11.5	UCD +2.0	L ORE covered
Total	146.5	146.0	Under 0.5	L Over
Projected score	—	UCD 67.2 · ORE 78.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ORE -6.8	ORE -36.0
1H total	68.4	68
1H projected score	UCD 30.8 · ORE 37.6	UCD 16 · ORE 52

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCD LLWLW	3-3	50%	1-2	1-2
ORE LLLLL	0-9	0%	0-5	0-5

Venue/role: UCD away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCD UUOOU	3-3	50%	4-3
ORE OOUOU	5-4	56%	4-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCDlast 7	4-3 57%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
ORElast 9	4-5 44%	0-9 0%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UC Davis

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L L W L W–

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U–

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsNDSU	W 80-68	-1.5	W +10.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 9	@PORT	L 63-67	+1.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsSAC	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 150
Nov 18	@NEV	W 75-71	+12.5	W +16.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 21	@COLO	L 79-95	+14.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 174
Nov 24	vsUL	W 77-56	-9.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 133
Dec 4	@HAW	L 69-75	—	—	—	—

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NDSU

W 80-68

+10.5

PORT

L 63-67

−2.5

SAC

W 77-73

−0.5

NEV

W 75-71

+16.5

COLO

L 79-95

−1.5

W 77-56

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NDSU

W 80-68

+5.5

PORT

L 63-67

−21.5

SAC

W 77-73

−1.5

NEV

W 75-71

+2.5

COLO

L 79-95

+21.5

W 77-56

−3.5

over 3under 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oregon

9 games played

Straight up

4-5

44% wins

Against the spread

0-9

0% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-4

56% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-544%

W W W W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-90%

L L L L L L L L L

9 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-456%

U U O O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsHAW	W 60-59	-11.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 7	vsRICE	W 67-63	-15.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 12	vsSDST	W 83-69	-16.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 17	vsORST	W 87-75	-13.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 24	vsAUB	L 73-84	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsSDSU	L 80-97	-2.5	L −19.5	141.5	O 177
Nov 27	vsCREI	L 66-76	+2.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsUSC	L 77-82	+2.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 6	@UCLA	L 63-74	+8.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−10.5

RICE

W 67-63

−11.5

SDST

W 83-69

−2.5

ORST

W 87-75

−1.5

AUB

L 73-84

−6.5

SDSU

L 80-97

−19.5

CREI

L 66-76

−7.5

USC

L 77-82

−2.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 9avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−25.5

RICE

W 67-63

−15.5

SDST

W 83-69

+6.5

ORST

W 87-75

+20.5

AUB

L 73-84

+1.5

SDSU

L 80-97

+35.5

CREI

L 66-76

−8.5

USC

L 77-82

+4.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−9.5

over 5under 4avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UC Davis @ Oregon

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UC Davis

Oregon

UC Davis

Oregon