J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · at N Arizona
Closing line
CP -1.5✓ NAU covered by 7.5
CP -1.5✓ NAU covered by 7.5Closing total164.5Over by 15.5
| CP | This season | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | ATS | 2-0 |
| 3-2 | O/U | 1-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CP 78–77 NAU · ✗ CP (54%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CP | 46 | 41 | 87 |
| NAU | 52 | 41 | 93 |
1st half: CP 46, NAU 52 (NAU by 6). The model had CP by 0.8 and a total of 72.7 (actual 98).
Team stats
| CP | NAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-67 46% | Field goals | 33-63 52% |
| 13-36 36% | 3-pointers | 9-22 41% |
| 12-15 80% | Free throws | 18-33 55% |
| 38 10 off | Rebounds | 41 12 off |
| 15 | Assists | 14 |
| 6 | Steals | 7 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 26 | Fouls | 19 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 15 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| CP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Davis G | 34 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5-12 | 3-8 |
| Peter Bandelj G | 32 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 8-14 | 2-5 |
| Hamad Mousa G | 28 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 6-15 | 3-10 |
| Cayden Ward G | 21 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Kieran Elliott G | 20 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Guzman Vasilic G | 27 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Ali Assran F | 19 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Troy Plumtree F | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Austin Goode F | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Aaron Price Jr. PF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Braden Freeman, Jess Esso Essis, Jason Scott, Luka Tarlac, Eric Brown, Jackson Mosley
| NAU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Abelman G | 37 | 21 | 12 | 2 | 8-18 | 4-10 |
| Isaiah Shaw F | 27 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 6-10 | 2-5 |
| Zack Davidson F | 27 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 6-10 | 0-0 |
| Kavon Bradford G | 26 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Arne Osojnik F | 24 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 5-11 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chris Komin G | 20 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Karl Poom F | 16 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Traivar Jackson F | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brennan Peterson G | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Oakland Fort G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: JT Amundsen, Walker Timme, Erez Poran, Diego Campisano
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCP -1.5
ModelCP -1.0
Model edgeNAU +0.5
W NAU covered
Total
Market164.5
Model155.3
Model edgeUnder 9.2
L Over
Projected score
CP 78.2 · NAU 77.1
CP 87 · NAU 93
Win probability
CP 54%
1st half
Spread
CP -0.8
NAU -6.0
Total
72.7
98 points
Projected score
CP 36.8 · NAU 36
CP 46 · NAU 52
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCP -2.5
1 → NAU
CloseCP -1.5
1 pt toward NAU
Total
Open162.5
▲ 2
Close164.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
CP -120 · NAU +100
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CP -2.5 · closed CP -1.5 · moved 1 toward NAUmodel CP -1
model CP -1
Opened 162.5 · closed 164.5 · moved 2 upmodel 155.5
model 155.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPlast 5 | 2-3 40% | 3-2 60% | 3-2 60% |
| NAUlast 2 | 0-2 0% | 2-0 100% | 1-1 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Cal Poly
5 games played
Straight up
2-3
40% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +6.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-2
60% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@
SEA
SEAW 73-71
+12.5
12
@
CSU
CSUL 79-93
+4.5
14
@
MONT
MONTL 82-90
−0.5
20
@
UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+21.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
−20.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+6.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
+3.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+9.5
over 3under 2avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
N Arizona
2 games played
Straight up
0-2
0% wins
Against the spread
2-0
100% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg −13.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
DRKE
DRKEL 71-77
+2.5
11
@
ARIZ
ARIZL 49-84
+0.5
covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsDRKE
DRKEL 71-77
+3.5
11
@ARIZ
ARIZL 49-84
−30.5
over 1under 1avg −13.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Cal Poly
2-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Utah92–85
- L@ Montana82–90
- L@ Colorado St79–93
- W@ Seattle U73–71
- L@ USC64–94
4 days since their last game.
N Arizona
0-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Sky Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Arizona49–84
- Lvs Drake71–77
A week or more of rest.