Northwestern Wildcats at DePaul Blue Demons: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 14, 8:30 PM ETWintrust Arena · at DePaul

Final

#66DEPDePaul79final

Closing lineNU -5.5✓ DEP covered by 3.5

Closing total145.5Over by 14.5

Season records: Northwestern and DePaul
NU	This season	DEP
3-0	Record	2-1
2-1	ATS	1-2
1-2	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NU 75–67 DEP · ✓ NU (76%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NU	42	39	81
DEP	44	35	79

1st half: NU 42, DEP 44 (DEP by 2). The model had NU by 5.0 and a total of 66.6 (actual 86).

Team stats

NU		DEP
29-50 58%	Field goals	25-59 42%
7-16 44%	3-pointers	7-21 33%
16-24 67%	Free throws	22-27 81%
25 6 off	Rebounds	34 16 off
17	Assists	16
6	Steals	3
6	Blocks	0
11	Turnovers	13
26	Fouls	22
38	Points in paint	34
9	Fast-break points	4

Players

NU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nick Martinelli F	34	24	5	2	8-11	1-1
Arrinten Page F	28	22	5	2	10-11	0-0
Angelo Ciaravino G	27	1	5	3	0-2	0-1
Jayden Reid G	22	17	2	4	5-9	2-4
Tre Singleton F	19	10	5	0	4-5	2-2
Bench
Justin Mullins G	17	1	1	4	0-1	0-1
Jake West G	16	0	0	2	0-5	0-3
Max Green G	12	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
K.J. Windham G	11	3	1	0	1-1	1-1
Tyler Kropp F	8	0	1	0	0-3	0-1
Jordan Clayton G	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Cade Bennerman, Gus Hurlburt, Blake Smith, Phoenix Gill

DEP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Layden Blocker G	30	14	3	1	5-16	2-7
Brandon Maclin G	26	5	3	2	2-4	1-1
CJ Gunn G	22	13	2	2	6-10	1-3
NJ Benson F	19	7	6	1	3-3	0-0
Theo Pierre-Justin F	18	3	3	4	0-3	0-2
Bench
RJ Smith G	22	7	0	2	2-8	1-3
Kruz McClure G	21	15	1	2	3-6	1-2
Kaleb Banks F	20	9	4	0	2-6	1-3
Fabian Flores C	16	6	8	1	2-3	0-0
Jeremy Lorenz F	6	0	3	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Amsal Delalic, Ilija Milijasevic, Nate Kasher, Isaiah Medina, Jonas Johnson, Khaman Maker

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NU -5.5	NU -7.9	NU +2.4	L DEP covered
Total	145.5	142.2	Under 3.3	L Over
Projected score	—	NU 75.1 · DEP 67.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NU -5.0	DEP -2.0
1H total	66.6	86
1H projected score	NU 35.8 · DEP 30.8	NU 42 · DEP 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU LWW	2-1	67%	—	2-1
DEP WLL	1-2	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: NU away, as favorite; DEP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU UUO	1-2	33%	3-0
DEP OUU	1-2	33%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NUlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%
DEPlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NU 3–0 DEPNU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · NU has won the last 3 meetings · NU 3-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2024-25	DEP 64 @ NU 84	NU -6.5	NU W
Dec 16, 2023-24	NU 56 @ DEP 46	DEP +9.5	NU W
Dec 17, 2022-23	DEP 45 @ NU 83	NU -8.5	NU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Northwestern

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +8.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

L W W

2 straight covers2 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMERC	W 70-47	-26.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 7	vsBU	W 76-52	-17.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 10	vsCLE	W 110-63	-23.5	W +23.5	151.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−3.5

W 76-52

+6.5

CLE

W 110-63

+23.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−23.5

W 76-52

−8.5

CLE

W 110-63

+21.5

over 1under 2avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

DePaul

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −13.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −11.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCHST	W 92-62	-24.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 7	vsSTO	W 72-64	-22.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 11	vsBUF	L 53-66	-18.5	L −31.5	153.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHST

W 92-62

+5.5

STO

W 72-64

−14.5

BUF

L 53-66

−31.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −13.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHST

W 92-62

+10.5

STO

W 72-64

−11.5

BUF

L 53-66

−34.5

over 1under 2avg −11.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northwestern @ DePaul

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Northwestern

DePaul

Northwestern

DePaul