Samford Bulldogs at Central Arkansas Bears: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 16, 2:00 PM ETFarris Center · at C Arkansas

#184SAMSamford84▲ winner

Final

#240CARKC Arkansas77final

Closing lineSAM -6.5✓ SAM covered by 0.5

Closing total151.5Over by 9.5

Season records: Samford and C Arkansas
SAM	This season	CARK
2-2	Record	0-2
2-2	ATS	0-2
2-2	O/U	0-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SAM 83–74 CARK · ✓ SAM (80%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
SAM	30	38	16	84
CARK	41	27	9	77

1st half: SAM 30, CARK 41 (CARK by 11). The model had SAM by 6.0 and a total of 73.4 (actual 71).

Team stats

SAM		CARK
28-68 41%	Field goals	29-67 43%
15-44 34%	3-pointers	6-22 27%
13-18 72%	Free throws	13-23 57%
39 9 off	Rebounds	46 13 off
19	Assists	9
8	Steals	6
5	Blocks	1
7	Turnovers	11
16	Fouls	16
26	Points in paint	44
6	Fast-break points	12

Players

SAM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jadin Booth G	42	21	5	3	6-18	5-15
Keaton Norris G	41	18	5	7	7-16	4-11
Cade Norris G	36	12	6	2	3-8	1-5
Dylan Faulkner F	29	16	8	1	7-12	0-0
Jaxon Pollard F	16	6	4	0	2-4	2-4
Bench
Isaiah Campbell-Finch G	33	11	3	3	3-5	3-5
Zion Wilburn G	18	0	0	1	0-3	0-2
Kam Martin G	7	0	0	1	0-1	0-1
Judson Bjornstad F	2	0	1	1	0-1	0-1
Caleb Harrison F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: JD Gossett, Cooper Davenport, Corey Brown, DaJion Humphrey, Zach Lamey, Joshua Hughes, Will Shaver

CARK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Camren Hunter G	36	26	4	3	11-24	1-7
Luke Moore G	34	9	5	0	3-8	0-3
Ty Robinson G	32	9	6	0	4-8	0-1
Cole McCormick G	28	8	7	2	3-7	0-2
Malchiah Marable F	15	1	3	2	0-2	0-0
Bench
Javion Guy-King G	25	13	6	2	4-7	2-3
Truman Byrne F	24	5	5	0	2-3	1-2
Tyler Lee G	13	6	1	0	2-4	2-3
Harry Beauchamp G	11	0	0	0	0-2	0-0
Parker Applegate G	4	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Chris Mason F	3	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: R.J. Newton, J.C. Shulman, Ethan Thomas, Owen Dehrmann, Rylie Marshall, Rashad Bolden

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SAM -6.5	SAM -9.7	SAM +3.2	W SAM covered
Total	151.5	156.7	Over 5.2	W Over
Projected score	—	SAM 83.2 · CARK 73.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SAM -6.0	CARK -11.0
1H total	73.4	71
1H projected score	SAM 39.7 · CARK 33.7	SAM 30 · CARK 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAM LLWW	2-2	50%	2-1	1-1
CARK LL	0-2	0%	—	0-2

Venue/role: SAM away, as favorite; CARK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAM OUOU	2-2	50%	2-2
CARK UU	0-2	0%	0-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAMlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
CARKlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Samford

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TULN	L 72-85	+7.5	L −5.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 7	vsSCST	W 82-72	-14.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 12	@TXSO	W 93-90	-2.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 183
Nov 14	@ARK	L 75-79	+24.5	W +20.5	158.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TULN

L 72-85

−5.5

SCST

W 82-72

−4.5

TXSO

W 93-90

+0.5

ARK

L 75-79

+20.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TULN

L 72-85

+2.5

SCST

W 82-72

−0.5

TXSO

W 93-90

+29.5

ARK

L 75-79

−4.5

over 2under 2avg +6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

C Arkansas

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UNC	L 54-94	+31.5	L −8.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 11	@ARK	L 56-93	+35.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNC

L 54-94

−8.5

ARK

L 56-93

−1.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNC

L 54-94

−9.5

ARK

L 56-93

−9.5

over 0under 2avg −9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Samford @ C Arkansas

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Samford

C Arkansas

Samford

C Arkansas