Sacramento State Hornets at Pacific Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 10:00 PM ETAlex G. Spanos Center · at Pacific

Final

#163PACPacific68▲ winner

Closing linePAC -10.5✓ PAC covered by 3.5

Closing total146.5Under by 24.5

Season records: Sacramento St and Pacific
SAC	This season	PAC
1-4	Record	4-2
2-3	ATS	4-2
2-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SAC 67–78 PAC · ✓ PAC (83%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SAC	32	22	54
PAC	32	36	68

1st half: SAC 32, PAC 32 (tied). The model had PAC by 6.5 and a total of 68.3 (actual 64).

Team stats

SAC		PAC
19-62 31%	Field goals	26-64 41%
5-23 22%	3-pointers	10-30 33%
11-12 92%	Free throws	6-8 75%
32 8 off	Rebounds	49 13 off
8	Assists	20
9	Steals	8
5	Blocks	4
11	Turnovers	16
10	Fouls	14
28	Points in paint	26
7	Fast-break points	4

Players

SAC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mikey Williams G	39	14	1	6	4-15	0-3
Mark Lavrenov F	31	6	9	0	2-6	0-2
Jahni Summers G	31	10	6	0	4-12	2-6
Prophet Johnson G	26	6	3	1	3-8	0-1
Shaqir O'Neal F	10	2	2	0	1-2	0-1
Bench
Jayden Teat G	21	12	1	1	3-10	3-6
Brandon Gardner F	17	2	2	0	1-4	0-3
Arman Madi G	11	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Jeremiah Nyarko F	8	2	1	0	1-4	0-0
Taj Glover G	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Romari Robinson G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Bear Cherry, Isaiah Bronson, Zach Anderson, Davis Ambuehl

PAC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Elias Ralph F	40	22	8	4	7-16	3-5
TJ Wainwright G	32	9	4	1	3-9	3-7
Justin Rochelin G	27	12	6	3	5-12	2-5
Isaac Jack F	21	7	12	1	3-3	0-0
Kajus Kublickas G	19	4	2	1	2-8	0-5
Bench
Jaden Clayton G	34	9	4	9	4-10	1-4
Jaion Pitt F	17	2	7	0	1-1	0-0
Alexis Marmolejos G	8	3	1	0	1-4	1-4
KC Ibekwe C	2	0	0	1	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Clayton Mpiana, Eyal Harel, Emmanuel Manyuon, Augustas Brazdeikis, Noah Budu, Carlsheon Young, Kris Keinys, Dominic Capriotti, Kellen Hampton

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PAC -10.5	PAC -11.0	PAC +0.5	W PAC covered
Total	146.5	145.9	Under 0.6	W Under
Projected score	—	SAC 67.4 · PAC 78.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PAC -6.5	PK
1H total	68.3	64
1H projected score	SAC 30.9 · PAC 37.4	SAC 32 · PAC 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-2	2-2
PAC LWLWW	4-2	67%	0-1	3-1

Venue/role: SAC away, as underdog; PAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OUUUO	2-3	40%	1-4
PAC UUUUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 5	1-4 20%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%
PAClast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Sacramento St

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 11	vsUCSB	L 87-92	+7.5	W +2.5	161.5	O 179
Nov 14	@UCD	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 150
Nov 16	vsPRES	W 64-62	-6.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 18	@UCLA	L 48-79	+27.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	@CAL	L 67-91	+21.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCSB

L 87-92

+2.5

UCD

L 73-77

+0.5

PRES

W 64-62

−4.5

UCLA

L 48-79

−3.5

CAL

L 67-91

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCSB

L 87-92

+17.5

UCD

L 73-77

−1.5

PRES

W 64-62

−24.5

UCLA

L 48-79

−19.5

CAL

L 67-91

+3.5

over 2under 3avg −4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacific

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −3.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

W L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NEV	L 77-78	+13.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsLBSU	W 69-66	-12.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 135
Nov 15	@CSUF	W 85-73	-6.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 158
Nov 20	@FAU	L 59-82	+7.5	L −15.5	154.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsSTBK	W 86-58	-4.5	W +23.5	145.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsJAX	W 68-53	-2.5	W +12.5	135.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEV

L 77-78

+12.5

LBSU

W 69-66

−9.5

CSUF

W 85-73

+5.5

FAU

L 59-82

−15.5

STBK

W 86-58

+23.5

JAX

W 68-53

+12.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEV

L 77-78

+15.5

LBSU

W 69-66

−6.5

CSUF

W 85-73

−1.5

FAU

L 59-82

−13.5

STBK

W 86-58

−1.5

JAX

W 68-53

−14.5

over 1under 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Sacramento St @ Pacific

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Sacramento St

Pacific

Sacramento St

Pacific