Saint Mary's Gaels vs Boise State Broncos: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 14, 6:00 PM ETMountain America Center · Neutral site

Final

#86BOISBoise St68▲ winner

Closing lineSMC -2.5✓ BOIS covered by 3.5

Closing total139.5Under by 4.5

Season records: Saint Mary's and Boise St
SMC	This season	BOIS
8-1	Record	6-2
6-3	ATS	5-3
6-3	O/U	1-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SMC 69–68 BOIS · ✗ SMC (55%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SMC	32	35	67
BOIS	37	31	68

1st half: SMC 32, BOIS 37 (BOIS by 5). The model had SMC by 1.0 and a total of 64.1 (actual 69).

Team stats

SMC		BOIS
21-57 37%	Field goals	25-52 48%
5-19 26%	3-pointers	6-19 32%
20-24 83%	Free throws	12-14 86%
33 10 off	Rebounds	29 4 off
7	Assists	9
6	Steals	5
0	Blocks	1
10	Turnovers	15
13	Fouls	18
26	Points in paint	36
15	Fast-break points	11

Players

SMC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joshua Dent G	40	16	0	6	5-9	1-4
Paulius Murauskas F	38	21	11	0	6-11	1-2
Andrew McKeever C	26	5	6	0	2-10	0-0
Mikey Lewis G	9	0	1	0	0-4	0-3
Rory Hawke G	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Dillan Shaw G	34	12	4	0	5-9	2-6
Liam Campbell G	24	7	3	1	1-6	1-3
Harry Wessels C	13	2	4	0	1-3	0-0
Tony Duckett G	7	4	0	0	1-5	0-1
Mantas Juzenas G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Trent MacLean, Oliver Faubert, Kevin Gad, Cade Bennett, Jazz Gardner

BOIS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Javan Buchanan F	32	11	7	2	4-7	1-3
Dylan Andrews G	31	9	1	2	2-6	1-1
Andrew Meadow F	27	4	2	1	2-7	0-3
R.J. Keene II G	23	4	7	2	2-3	0-0
Drew Fielder F	21	22	5	0	10-17	2-6
Bench
Pearson Carmichael F	26	9	3	1	3-4	1-2
Dominic Parolin F	19	7	2	0	1-4	1-3
Aginaldo Neto G	16	2	0	1	1-4	0-1
Spencer Ahrens F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Bhan Buom, Brennan Ramirez, Noah Bendinger, Julian Bowie, Rayzhon Bergersen, Ethan Lathan

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SMC -2.5	SMC -1.4	BOIS +1.1	W BOIS covered
Total	139.5	136.8	Under 2.7	W Under
Projected score	—	SMC 69.1 · BOIS 67.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SMC -1.0	BOIS -5.0
1H total	64.1	69
1H projected score	SMC 32.5 · BOIS 31.6	SMC 32 · BOIS 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SMC LLWLW	6-3	67%	1-2	6-2
BOIS LWLWW	5-3	63%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: SMC neutral site, as favorite; BOIS neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMC OUUOU	6-3	67%	8-1
BOIS UUUUU	1-7	13%	6-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMClast 9	8-1 89%	6-3 67%	6-3 67%
BOISlast 8	6-2 75%	5-3 63%	1-7 13%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SMC 0–2 BOISBOIS leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · BOIS has won the last 2 meetings · SMC 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 14, 2024-25	SMC 65 vs BOIS 67	BOIS +2.5	BOIS W
Dec 1, 2023-24	SMC 60 vs BOIS 63	BOIS +3.5	BOIS W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Saint Mary's

9 games played

Straight up

8-1

89% wins

Against the spread

6-3

67% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-3

67% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-189%

W W W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-367%

W W W W L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-367%

O O O O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSTMN	W 84-58	-13.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 7	vsUTC	W 87-66	-15.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 11	vsOHIO	W 90-60	-17.5	W +12.5	144.5	O 150
Nov 14	vsUNT	W 80-49	-14.5	W +16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 19	vsARST	W 85-72	-20.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 157
Nov 26	vsWICH	W 70-65	-9.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsVT	W 77-66	-5.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 28	vsVAN	L 71-96	+4.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 167
Dec 7	@DAV	W 70-61	-8.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+12.5

UTC

W 87-66

+5.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+12.5

UNT

W 80-49

+16.5

ARST

W 85-72

−7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

W 77-66

+5.5

VAN

L 71-96

−20.5

DAV

W 70-61

+0.5

covered 6didn’t cover 3avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+0.5

UTC

W 87-66

+7.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+5.5

UNT

W 80-49

+0.5

ARST

W 85-72

+7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

W 77-66

−1.5

VAN

L 71-96

+17.5

DAV

W 70-61

−6.5

over 6under 3avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Boise St

8 games played

Straight up

6-2

75% wins

Against the spread

5-3

63% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-7

13% overs · avg −8.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-275%

W W W W L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-363%

W W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-713%

O U U U U U U U

7 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsUVU	W 101-77	-12.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 178
Nov 11	vsRGV	W 85-65	-16.5	W +3.5	161.5	U 150
Nov 15	vsMTST	W 62-58	-16.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 120
Nov 18	vsWICH	W 62-59	-9.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 121
Nov 24	vsUSC	L 67-70	+3.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsNCSU	L 70-81	+6.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 151
Dec 6	@BTLR	W 77-68	+2.5	W +11.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 10	vsDUQ	W 86-64	-14.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UVU

W 101-77

+11.5

RGV

W 85-65

+3.5

MTST

W 62-58

−12.5

WICH

W 62-59

−6.5

USC

L 67-70

+0.5

NCSU

L 70-81

−4.5

BTLR

W 77-68

+11.5

DUQ

W 86-64

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UVU

W 101-77

+26.5

RGV

W 85-65

−11.5

MTST

W 62-58

−27.5

WICH

W 62-59

−29.5

USC

L 67-70

−18.5

NCSU

L 70-81

−1.5

BTLR

W 77-68

−3.5

DUQ

W 86-64

−0.5

over 1under 7avg −8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Saint Mary's vs Boise St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Saint Mary's

Boise St

Saint Mary's

Boise St