San Diego State Aztecs vs Oregon Ducks: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 11:00 PM ETMichelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site

#75SDSUSan Diego St97▲ winner

Final

#57OREOregon80final

Closing lineORE -2.5✓ SDSU covered by 19.5

Closing total141.5Over by 35.5

Season records: San Diego St and Oregon
SDSU	This season	ORE
2-2	Record	4-1
1-3	ATS	0-5
1-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SDSU 71–75 ORE · ✗ ORE (64%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SDSU	51	46	97
ORE	41	39	80

1st half: SDSU 51, ORE 41 (SDSU by 10). The model had ORE by 2.3 and a total of 68.6 (actual 92).

Team stats

SDSU		ORE
39-58 67%	Field goals	25-62 40%
11-23 48%	3-pointers	12-28 43%
8-9 89%	Free throws	18-22 82%
34 8 off	Rebounds	26 14 off
22	Assists	17
7	Steals	4
6	Blocks	2
15	Turnovers	13
18	Fouls	8
36	Points in paint	22
20	Fast-break points	8

Players

SDSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Reese Dixon-Waters G	28	22	1	2	9-13	4-7
Miles Byrd G	26	7	4	3	3-7	1-4
Magoon Gwath F	22	13	6	0	6-8	1-1
Miles Heide F	20	8	2	2	4-4	0-0
Taj DeGourville G	16	0	4	4	0-4	0-2
Bench
BJ Davis G	21	21	2	4	6-7	3-4
Elzie Harrington G	20	12	0	4	5-6	2-2
Pharaoh Compton F	19	6	4	0	3-3	0-0
Jeremiah Oden F	15	6	5	1	2-4	0-2
Sean Newman Jr. G	9	0	2	2	0-0	0-0
Tae Simmons F	4	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Thokbor Majak, Cam Lawin, Latrell Davis, Raymar Gonzales

ORE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jackson Shelstad G	32	21	1	3	7-13	5-9
Kwame Evans Jr. F	30	16	5	5	4-8	2-4
Takai Simpkins G	26	3	0	3	1-5	1-2
Devon Pryor G	23	9	1	0	3-5	2-3
Nate Bittle C	20	13	1	0	5-8	1-3
Bench
Sean Stewart F	21	1	4	2	0-4	0-0
Ege Demir C	12	2	2	0	1-3	0-0
Dez Lindsay F	12	3	3	1	1-5	0-2
Wei Lin G	10	5	2	2	2-7	1-3
Oleksandr Kobzystyi F	7	3	0	1	0-1	0-1
Jamari Phillips G	7	4	1	0	1-3	0-1

Did not play: Drew Carter, Luke Johnson, Efe Vatan, JJ Frakes, Rian Gonzales, Miles Stewart

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ORE -2.5	ORE -4.0	ORE +1.5	L SDSU covered
Total	141.5	146.3	Over 4.8	W Over
Projected score	—	SDSU 71.1 · ORE 75.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ORE -2.3	SDSU -10.0
1H total	68.6	92
1H projected score	SDSU 33.1 · ORE 35.4	SDSU 51 · ORE 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SDSU WLLL	1-3	25%	0-1	0-1
ORE LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-1	0-4

Venue/role: SDSU neutral site, as underdog; ORE neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU UUOU	1-3	25%	2-2
ORE UUOOO	3-2	60%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSUlast 4	2-2 50%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%
ORElast 5	4-1 80%	0-5 0%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SDSU 0–1 OREORE leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SDSU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 27, 2024-25	SDSU 68 vs ORE 78	ORE -3.5	ORE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

San Diego St

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −12 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg +14.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLBSU	W 77-45	-25.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 9	vsIDST	W 73-57	-21.5	L −5.5	135.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsTROY	L 107-108	-14.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 215
Nov 24	vsMICH	L 54-94	+6.5	L −33.5	148.5	U 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

+6.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

−15.5

MICH

L 54-94

−33.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −12 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

−13.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

+77.5

MICH

L 54-94

−0.5

over 1under 3avg +14.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oregon

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

0-5

0% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsHAW	W 60-59	-11.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 7	vsRICE	W 67-63	-15.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 12	vsSDST	W 83-69	-16.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 17	vsORST	W 87-75	-13.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 24	vsAUB	L 73-84	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−10.5

RICE

W 67-63

−11.5

SDST

W 83-69

−2.5

ORST

W 87-75

−1.5

AUB

L 73-84

−6.5

covered 0didn’t cover 5avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−25.5

RICE

W 67-63

−15.5

SDST

W 83-69

+6.5

ORST

W 87-75

+20.5

AUB

L 73-84

+1.5

over 3under 2avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

San Diego St vs Oregon

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

San Diego St

Oregon

San Diego St

Oregon