Dartmouth Big Green at Wyoming Cowboys: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 4:00 PM ETArena-Auditorium · at Wyoming

#251DARTDartmouth80final

Final

#122WYOWyoming93▲ winner

Closing lineWYO -14.5✓ DART covered by 1.5

Closing total156.5Over by 16.5

Season records: Dartmouth and Wyoming
DART	This season	WYO
2-3	Record	5-2
1-4	ATS	4-3
3-2	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: DART 70–84 WYO · ✓ WYO (89%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
DART	40	40	80
WYO	39	54	93

1st half: DART 40, WYO 39 (DART by 1). The model had WYO by 8.3 and a total of 71.6 (actual 79).

Team stats

DART		WYO
24-47 51%	Field goals	36-68 53%
12-25 48%	3-pointers	8-23 35%
20-23 87%	Free throws	13-22 59%
27 3 off	Rebounds	34 12 off
11	Assists	14
5	Steals	11
2	Blocks	3
17	Turnovers	7
17	Fouls	20
20	Points in paint	54
2	Fast-break points	16

Players

DART	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Connor Amundsen G	35	18	2	2	6-9	4-5
Jackson Munro F	31	7	6	2	2-5	1-3
Brandon Mitchell-Day F	29	6	4	2	3-9	0-4
Kareem Thomas G	27	27	3	3	6-13	1-3
Jayden Williams F	22	14	4	1	5-7	4-6
Bench
Cameron McNamee G	26	6	2	0	2-4	2-4
Cam Hiatt G	19	2	0	1	0-0	0-0
Shanon Simango F	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Tyler Garrett F	5	0	2	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Anton Strelnikov, Nikola Abusara, Patrick Tivnan Jr., Ben Brown, Khai Lockwood

WYO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nasir Meyer G	32	14	8	3	6-13	1-4
Kiani Saxon F	25	1	3	0	0-1	0-0
Uriyah Rojas G	20	7	1	1	3-6	1-3
Simm-Marten Saadi F	11	8	0	1	3-5	2-4
Damarion Dennis G	9	0	2	2	0-1	0-0
Bench
Leland Walker G	24	18	3	4	8-12	1-1
Adam Harakow G	22	16	4	1	6-9	3-6
Khaden Bennett G	21	14	5	1	5-9	0-2
Jared Harris G	15	11	2	0	3-6	0-2
Abou Magassa F	11	4	1	0	2-2	0-0
Matija Belic F	8	0	1	1	0-3	0-1
Gavin Gores F	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Garrett Spielman, Talan Taylor, Neil Summers

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WYO -14.5	WYO -14.0	DART +0.5	W DART covered
Total	156.5	152.9	Under 3.6	L Over
Projected score	—	DART 69.5 · WYO 83.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WYO -8.3	DART -1.0
1H total	71.6	79
1H projected score	DART 31.7 · WYO 39.9	DART 40 · WYO 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DART LLLWL	1-4	20%	1-1	1-2
WYO WLLWW	4-3	57%	3-2	3-2

Venue/role: DART away, as underdog; WYO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DART UOOOU	3-2	60%	2-3
WYO UUOOU	3-4	43%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DARTlast 5	2-3 40%	1-4 20%	3-2 60%
WYOlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Dartmouth

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsMRST	L 56-75	-1.5	L −20.5	138.5	U 131
Nov 12	@BRY	L 75-82	+1.5	L −5.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 16	vsAPP	L 77-85	+1.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 162
Nov 29	@SPU	W 87-61	+3.5	W +29.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 3	vsUNH	W 69-68	-8.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

L 56-75

−20.5

BRY

L 75-82

−5.5

APP

L 77-85

−6.5

SPU

W 87-61

+29.5

UNH

W 69-68

−7.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

L 56-75

−7.5

BRY

L 75-82

+5.5

APP

L 77-85

+21.5

SPU

W 87-61

+3.5

UNH

W 69-68

−10.5

over 3under 2avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wyoming

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +8.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

L W W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsCSUF	W 92-82	-15.5	L −5.5	154.5	O 174
Nov 11	vsAPSU	W 79-65	-5.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 144
Nov 15	vsPORT	W 93-56	-11.5	W +25.5	160.5	U 149
Nov 19	@SHSU	L 70-78	+1.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 148
Nov 23	vsNORF	W 75-67	-15.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 26	vsDEN	W 101-59	-9.5	W +32.5	153.5	O 160
Nov 30	@TTU	L 72-76	+19.5	W +15.5	152.5	U 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUF

W 92-82

−5.5

APSU

W 79-65

+8.5

PORT

W 93-56

+25.5

SHSU

L 70-78

−6.5

NORF

W 75-67

−7.5

DEN

W 101-59

+32.5

TTU

L 72-76

+15.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +8.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUF

W 92-82

+19.5

APSU

W 79-65

−9.5

PORT

W 93-56

−11.5

SHSU

L 70-78

−8.5

NORF

W 75-67

+0.5

DEN

W 101-59

+6.5

TTU

L 72-76

−4.5

over 3under 4avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Dartmouth @ Wyoming

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Dartmouth

Wyoming

Dartmouth

Wyoming