Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners vs Fresno State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 30, 6:00 PM ETSelland Arena · Neutral site

#329CSUBBakersfield76▲ winner

Final

#174FRESFresno St71final

Closing lineFRES -10.5✓ CSUB covered by 15.5

Closing total150.5Under by 3.5

Season records: Bakersfield and Fresno St
CSUB	This season	FRES
2-4	Record	5-2
2-4	ATS	5-2
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CSUB 71–78 FRES · ✗ FRES (73%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CSUB	34	42	76
FRES	40	31	71

1st half: CSUB 34, FRES 40 (FRES by 6). The model had FRES by 4.0 and a total of 69.7 (actual 74).

Team stats

CSUB		FRES
26-57 46%	Field goals	24-65 37%
1-15 7%	3-pointers	8-33 24%
23-24 96%	Free throws	15-19 79%
31 7 off	Rebounds	43 19 off
8	Assists	13
11	Steals	7
6	Blocks	1
10	Turnovers	16
14	Fouls	16
38	Points in paint	32
24	Fast-break points	10

Players

CSUB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dailin Smith G	34	30	6	1	9-21	0-5
Tom Mark F	33	10	1	1	5-8	0-3
Ronald Jessamy F	28	6	5	1	0-2	0-1
CJ Hardy G	28	15	6	3	5-11	0-2
AJ George G	26	9	5	1	4-9	1-2
Bench
Pierre Geneste Jr. C	20	4	6	1	2-3	0-0
Kadar Waller G	16	2	0	0	1-2	0-1
Jaden Alexander G	10	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Mike Price G	5	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Colin Darby, TJ James Jr., Dylan Purnell, Bentley Waller, Caleb McCarty

FRES	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Zaon Collins G	36	17	2	4	6-13	3-6
Jake Heidbreder G	36	20	3	2	7-15	2-8
Cameron Faas G	28	3	3	1	1-8	1-8
Wilson Jacques C	25	11	11	1	3-4	0-0
DeShawn Gory F	24	10	2	1	4-11	0-4
Bench
DJ Stickman G	18	2	5	2	1-3	0-1
Gasper Kocevar C	14	0	7	1	0-1	0-0
Jac Mani F	11	5	1	1	1-5	1-3
David Douglas Jr. G	4	3	1	0	1-4	1-3
Bastien Rieber G	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Nathan Zulemie, Matteo Porto, Aram Vladimir Soqui Urbano, Troy Jenkins, Makhan Diouf

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FRES -10.5	FRES -6.9	CSUB +3.6	W CSUB covered
Total	150.5	148.9	Under 1.6	W Under
Projected score	—	CSUB 71 · FRES 77.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FRES -4.0	FRES -6.0
1H total	69.7	74
1H projected score	CSUB 32.9 · FRES 36.9	CSUB 34 · FRES 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
CSUB WWLLL	2-4	33%	—	1-3
FRES LWWWW	5-2	71%	1-0	3-2

Venue/role: CSUB neutral site, as underdog; FRES neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSUB UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
FRES OUOOU	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUBlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
FRESlast 7	5-2 71%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CSUB 1–2 FRESFRES leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · CSUB 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2024-25	FRES 56 @ CSUB 74	CSUB -1.5	CSUB W
Dec 15, 2023-24	CSUB 58 @ FRES 61	FRES -9.5	CSUB W
Dec 20, 2022-23	FRES 56 @ CSUB 48	CSUB +5.5	FRES W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bakersfield

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CAL	L 60-87	+15.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 147
Nov 11	vsWIU	W 74-58	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 14	@MISS	L 60-82	+23.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 17	@PRST	L 80-93	+8.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 173
Nov 22	vsMVSU	W 86-70	-21.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 156
Nov 25	@FSU	L 59-89	+26.5	L −3.5	159.5	U 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−11.5

WIU

W 74-58

+8.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

PRST

L 80-93

−4.5

MVSU

W 86-70

−5.5

FSU

L 59-89

−3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−0.5

WIU

W 74-58

−9.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

PRST

L 80-93

+31.5

MVSU

W 86-70

+17.5

FSU

L 59-89

−11.5

over 3under 3avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Fresno St

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

L W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUPST	L 66-67	-9.5	L −10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsLBSU	W 82-62	-6.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 144
Nov 12	vsUCSD	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 15	vsUVU	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 18	vsSFA	W 80-78	+2.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 21	vsNOLA	W 85-76	-6.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsPEPP	W 76-53	-2.5	W +20.5	150.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

L 66-67

−10.5

LBSU

W 82-62

+13.5

UCSD

L 73-78

−6.5

UVU

W 75-74

+5.5

SFA

W 80-78

+4.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+2.5

PEPP

W 76-53

+20.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

L 66-67

−31.5

LBSU

W 82-62

+1.5

UCSD

L 73-78

+2.5

UVU

W 75-74

−7.5

SFA

W 80-78

+11.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+6.5

PEPP

W 76-53

−21.5

over 4under 3avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bakersfield vs Fresno St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Bakersfield

Fresno St

Bakersfield

Fresno St