Old Dominion Monarchs at Xavier Musketeers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 7:00 PM ETCintas Center · at Xavier

Final

#49XAVXavier99▲ winner

Closing lineXAV -10.5✓ XAV covered by 19.5

Closing total150.5Over by 17.5

Season records: Old Dominion and Xavier
ODU	This season	XAV
1-2	Record	2-2
1-2	ATS	0-4
2-1	O/U	0-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ODU 69–81 XAV · ✓ XAV (86%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ODU	29	40	69
XAV	51	48	99

1st half: ODU 29, XAV 51 (XAV by 22). The model had XAV by 7.3 and a total of 70.2 (actual 80).

Team stats

ODU		XAV
26-62 42%	Field goals	33-72 46%
5-18 28%	3-pointers	16-36 44%
12-18 67%	Free throws	17-24 71%
28 9 off	Rebounds	48 19 off
18	Assists	29
5	Steals	10
3	Blocks	5
14	Turnovers	9
18	Fouls	15
38	Points in paint	32
11	Fast-break points	25

Players

ODU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Robert Davis Jr. G	31	10	1	3	4-14	2-10
LJ Thomas G	27	13	1	6	4-6	0-0
KC Shaw G	22	8	2	1	3-11	0-0
Jordan Battle G	18	5	3	4	1-4	0-2
Caelum Swanton-Rodger F	18	10	4	1	5-9	0-0
Bench
Zacch Wiggins G	21	9	3	3	4-6	1-1
Drew McKenna F	20	12	2	0	4-9	2-3
Scottie Hubbard G	16	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
Donovan Raymond F	15	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Jared Turner F	12	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Stephaun Walker, CJ Parker, Ben Nacey, Cooper Jones, Rieco Hellams, Elijah Flowers

XAV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tre Carroll F	30	20	7	5	7-11	3-5
Jovan Milicevic F	28	20	3	1	7-14	4-8
Filip Borovicanin F	28	9	5	7	3-10	1-5
Malik Messina-Moore G	27	1	7	8	0-7	0-4
All Wright G	26	20	1	4	8-11	4-5
Bench
Roddie Anderson G	21	20	5	3	7-10	4-5
Isaiah Walker G	13	2	6	0	1-2	0-0
Pape N'Diaye F	9	0	5	0	0-4	0-3
Mier Panoam G	9	2	2	1	0-3	0-1
Anthony Robinson F	6	5	4	0	0-0	0-0
Henry Thole F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ian Sabourin F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Michael Wolf G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Luke Naser, Gabriel Pozzato, Kason Westphal

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	XAV -10.5	XAV -12.4	XAV +1.9	W XAV covered
Total	150.5	149.7	Under 0.8	L Over
Projected score	—	ODU 68.6 · XAV 81.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	XAV -7.3	XAV -22.0
1H total	70.2	80
1H projected score	ODU 31.4 · XAV 38.7	ODU 29 · XAV 51

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ODU WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1
XAV LLLL	0-4	0%	0-3	0-3

Venue/role: ODU away, as underdog; XAV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ODU OUO	2-1	67%	1-2
XAV UUUU	0-4	0%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ODUlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
XAVlast 4	2-2 50%	0-4 0%	0-4 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Old Dominion

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg −4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@M-OH	L 72-87	+16.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsNORF	W 60-57	-8.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 117
Nov 15	@GW	L 73-96	+15.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

M-OH

L 72-87

+1.5

NORF

W 60-57

−5.5

L 73-96

−7.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

M-OH

L 72-87

+5.5

NORF

W 60-57

−32.5

L 73-96

+13.5

over 2under 1avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Xavier

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −13.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-4

0% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

0-40%

U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRST	W 66-62	-12.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 6	vsLEM	W 74-69	-24.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 143
Nov 10	vsSCU	L 68-87	-3.5	L −22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 14	@IOWA	L 62-81	+15.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−8.5

LEM

W 74-69

−19.5

SCU

L 68-87

−22.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−3.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −13.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−11.5

LEM

W 74-69

−13.5

SCU

L 68-87

−0.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−0.5

over 0under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Old Dominion @ Xavier

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Old Dominion

Xavier

Old Dominion

Xavier