C. M. Tad Smith Coliseum · at Ole Miss
Closing line
MISS -23.5✓ CSUB covered by 1.5
MISS -23.5✓ CSUB covered by 1.5Closing total140.5Over by 1.5
 CSUB | This season | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | ATS | 1-2 |
| 0-2 | O/U | 3-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CSUB 63–85 MISS · ✓ MISS (97%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSUB | 28 | 32 | 60 |
| MISS | 38 | 44 | 82 |
1st half: CSUB 28, MISS 38 (MISS by 10). The model had MISS by 12.8 and a total of 69.3 (actual 66).
Team stats
| CSUB | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-49 43% | Field goals | 29-66 44% |
| 2-9 22% | 3-pointers | 5-19 26% |
| 16-25 64% | Free throws | 19-25 76% |
| 34 11 off | Rebounds | 43 20 off |
| 8 | Assists | 15 |
| 4 | Steals | 10 |
| 9 | Blocks | 8 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 20 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| CSUB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Hardy G | 33 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 6-10 | 2-3 |
| AJ George G | 31 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 5-10 | 0-0 |
| Tom Mark F | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Dailin Smith G | 24 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 2-10 | 0-4 |
| Pierre Geneste Jr. C | 17 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ronald Jessamy F | 25 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-1 |
| Mike Price G | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Caleb McCarty F | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Kadar Waller G | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Alexander G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dylan Purnell G | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Bentley Waller, Colin Darby, TJ James Jr.
| MISS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilias Kamardine G | 26 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4-10 | 1-4 |
| AJ Storr G | 24 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 6-13 | 0-1 |
| Malik Dia F | 23 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 4-10 | 0-2 |
| James Scott F | 23 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Kezza Giffa G | 19 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Patton Pinkins G | 16 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Travis Perry G | 15 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3-7 | 2-5 |
| Corey Chest F | 14 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Augusto Cassia F | 13 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Eduardo Klafke G | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Koren Johnson G | 9 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Hobert Grayson IV G | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Zach Day G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Niko Bundalo F | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Max Smith G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Tylis Jordan
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMISS -23.5
ModelMISS -21.4
Model edgeCSUB +2.1
W CSUB covered
Total
Market140.5
Model147.9
Model edgeOver 7.4
W Over
Projected score
CSUB 63.3 · MISS 84.7
CSUB 60 · MISS 82
Win probability
MISS 97%
1st half
Spread
MISS -12.8
MISS -10.0
Total
69.3
66 points
Projected score
CSUB 28.2 · MISS 41.1
CSUB 28 · MISS 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMISS -25.5
2 → CSUB
CloseMISS -23.5
2 pts toward CSUB
Total
Open146.5
▼ 6
Close140.5
Down 6 since the open
Moneyline
CSUB +3000 · MISS -20000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MISS -25.5 · closed MISS -23.5 · moved 2 toward CSUBmodel MISS -21.5
model MISS -21.5
Opened 146.5 · closed 140.5 · moved 6 downmodel 148
model 148
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSUBlast 2 | 1-1 50% | 1-1 50% | 0-2 0% |
| MISSlast 3 | 3-0 100% | 1-2 33% | 3-0 100% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Bakersfield
2 games played
Straight up
1-1
50% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-2
0% overs · avg −5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
CAL
CALL 60-87
−11.5
11
vs
WIU
WIUW 74-58
+8.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CAL
CALL 60-87
−0.5
11
vsWIU
WIUW 74-58
−9.5
over 0under 2avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Ole Miss
3 games played
Straight up
3-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-2
33% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-0
100% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
SELA
SELAW 88-58
+8.5
7
vs
ULM
ULMW 86-65
−16.5
11
vs
MEM
MEMW 83-77
−3.5
covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+2.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
+1.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
+7.5
over 3under 0avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Bakersfield
1-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs W Illinois74–58
- L@ California60–87
3 days since their last game.
Ole Miss
3-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Memphis83–77
- Wvs UL Monroe86–65
- Wvs SE Louisiana88–58
3 days since their last game.