Abilene Christian Wildcats at Pepperdine Waves: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 9:00 PM ETFirestone Fieldhouse · at Pepperdine

Final

#172PEPPPepperdine63final

Closing lineACU -1.5✓ ACU covered by 6.5

Closing total137.5Under by 3.5

Season records: Abilene Chrstn and Pepperdine
ACU	This season	PEPP
2-3	Record	1-5
1-4	ATS	2-4
1-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ACU 68–71 PEPP · ✗ PEPP (58%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ACU	35	36	71
PEPP	28	35	63

1st half: ACU 35, PEPP 28 (ACU by 7). The model had PEPP by 1.3 and a total of 65.1 (actual 63).

Team stats

ACU		PEPP
23-52 44%	Field goals	19-45 42%
8-22 36%	3-pointers	6-17 35%
17-23 74%	Free throws	19-25 76%
29 9 off	Rebounds	27 6 off
17	Assists	13
8	Steals	2
6	Blocks	1
8	Turnovers	11
23	Fouls	14
26	Points in paint	24
9	Fast-break points	5

Players

ACU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joseph Venzant G	29	5	4	1	2-2	0-0
Yaniel Rivera G	29	14	1	3	4-9	4-9
Zy Wright G	25	7	1	1	2-7	1-4
Bradyn Hubbard F	20	15	4	1	6-11	1-3
Cade Hornecker F	17	2	5	4	1-4	0-0
Bench
Rich Smith G	27	10	2	6	2-3	0-1
Cbo Newton G	27	8	2	1	2-6	2-3
Ma'Shy Hill F	13	3	5	0	1-2	0-0
Joseph Scott F	10	7	4	0	3-4	0-0
Christian Alston G	2	0	0	0	0-3	0-1
Isaac Dye G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Tylan Lewis, Isaiah Neyhart

PEPP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aaron Clark G	38	11	5	5	3-14	0-7
Styles Phipps G	33	19	4	4	7-12	3-4
Danilo Dozic C	33	9	4	1	2-6	1-3
Javon Cooley G	25	9	3	1	2-4	1-2
Pavle Stosic F	15	4	2	1	2-4	0-0
Bench
Yonatan Levy F	17	4	3	1	1-1	0-0
Luka Vudragovic G	13	5	1	0	2-3	1-1
David Mager G	11	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Stefan Cicic C	10	2	1	0	0-0	0-0
Pasha Shemirani F	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Ty Virgil, Anto Balian, Nikola Radovanovic, Vladimir Sudar, Preston Phillips, Yassine Gharram

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ACU -1.5	PEPP -2.5	PEPP +4.0	L ACU covered
Total	137.5	138.9	Over 1.4	L Under
Projected score	—	ACU 68.2 · PEPP 70.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PEPP -1.3	ACU -7.0
1H total	65.1	63
1H projected score	ACU 31.9 · PEPP 33.2	ACU 35 · PEPP 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ACU LLLWL	1-4	20%	0-2	1-2
PEPP LWLLL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-4

Venue/role: ACU away, as favorite; PEPP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ACU UUUUO	1-4	20%	2-3
PEPP OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ACUlast 5	2-3 40%	1-4 20%	1-4 20%
PEPPlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Abilene Chrstn

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −9.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −12.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-420%

L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsOMA	W 73-71	-4.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 144
Nov 14	@SFA	L 66-76	+6.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 142
Nov 18	@TXST	L 49-63	+1.5	L −12.5	138.5	U 112
Nov 24	vsUTSA	W 61-50	-2.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 111
Nov 25	vsW&M	L 58-92	-1.5	L −35.5	147.5	O 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OMA

W 73-71

−2.5

SFA

L 66-76

−3.5

TXST

L 49-63

−12.5

UTSA

W 61-50

+8.5

W&M

L 58-92

−35.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −9.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OMA

W 73-71

−6.5

SFA

L 66-76

−0.5

TXST

L 49-63

−26.5

UTSA

W 61-50

−33.5

W&M

L 58-92

+2.5

over 1under 4avg −12.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pepperdine

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@UCLA	L 63-74	+29.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUNCO	L 81-88	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	vsNOLA	W 90-79	-5.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 21	vsSFA	L 60-63	+1.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsFRES	L 53-76	+2.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 129
Nov 29	@CSUF	L 69-83	+1.5	L −12.5	161.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

+18.5

UNCO

L 81-88

−5.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+5.5

SFA

L 60-63

−1.5

FRES

L 53-76

−20.5

CSUF

L 69-83

−12.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

−15.5

UNCO

L 81-88

+15.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+11.5

SFA

L 60-63

−25.5

FRES

L 53-76

−21.5

CSUF

L 69-83

−9.5

over 2under 4avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Abilene Chrstn @ Pepperdine

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Abilene Chrstn

Pepperdine

Abilene Chrstn

Pepperdine