Mercer Bears at Winthrop Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 2:00 PM ETWinthrop Coliseum · at Winthrop

#242MERMercer69final

Final

#205WINWinthrop105▲ winner

Closing lineWIN -2.5✓ WIN covered by 33.5

Closing total162.5Over by 11.5

Season records: Mercer and Winthrop
MER	This season	WIN
1-1	Record	1-2
2-0	ATS	2-1
1-1	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MER 77–81 WIN · ✓ WIN (64%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MER	39	30	69
WIN	50	55	105

1st half: MER 39, WIN 50 (WIN by 11). The model had WIN by 2.2 and a total of 73.6 (actual 89).

Team stats

MER		WIN
24-56 43%	Field goals	34-66 52%
5-24 21%	3-pointers	11-25 44%
16-26 62%	Free throws	26-37 70%
32 7 off	Rebounds	43 13 off
7	Assists	13
5	Steals	9
2	Blocks	2
19	Turnovers	11
27	Fouls	24
30	Points in paint	42
14	Fast-break points	23

Players

MER	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Baraka Okojie G	35	16	4	2	6-12	0-2
Brady Shoulders G	31	4	8	0	2-5	0-1
Quinton Perkins II G	31	14	2	3	5-8	2-5
Armani Mighty C	26	8	6	0	2-4	0-0
Zaire Williams G	19	3	2	1	0-3	0-2
Bench
Kyle Cuffe Jr. G	25	17	1	0	6-12	2-8
Bendji Pierre F	13	0	0	0	0-5	0-3
TJ Grant G	8	2	1	1	1-1	0-0
Braeden Carlsen G	5	3	1	0	1-4	1-2
Jaydon Cole G	4	2	1	0	1-2	0-1
Pero Zubac F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Connor Serven, Alex Koch, Petras Padegimas, NJ Nganga, Tristan Gross

WIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Daylen Berry G	26	11	4	3	3-8	1-3
Kareem Rozier G	24	20	2	4	7-13	4-7
Kody Clouet G	17	14	4	1	4-7	3-5
Isaiah Wilson G	14	5	0	1	2-4	1-3
Logan Duncomb C	8	0	0	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Tommy Kamarad F	18	11	4	1	3-6	1-2
Josh Meo G	18	18	3	1	5-6	0-0
Ed Nnamoko F	16	6	3	0	3-5	0-0
Tai Hamilton F	15	0	6	1	0-1	0-0
Seifeldin Hendawy G	15	10	5	0	4-7	0-2
Pharrell Boyogueno G	13	5	7	0	2-4	1-3
Braylhan Thomas G	8	5	2	1	1-3	0-0
Henry Harrison G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Cam Christy G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kaleb Evans

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WIN -2.5	WIN -4.0	WIN +1.5	W WIN covered
Total	162.5	157.2	Under 5.3	L Over
Projected score	—	MER 76.6 · WIN 80.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WIN -2.2	WIN -11.0
1H total	73.6	89
1H projected score	MER 35.7 · WIN 37.9	MER 39 · WIN 50

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MER WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
WIN WWL	2-1	67%	—	1-1

Venue/role: MER away, as underdog; WIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MER UO	1-1	50%	1-1
WIN UOU	1-2	33%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MERlast 2	1-1 50%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%
WINlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MER 1–2 WINWIN leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · MER 3-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2024-25	MER 97 @ WIN 102	WIN -8.5	MER W
Nov 19, 2022-23	WIN 68 @ MER 77	MER -3.5	MER W
Nov 13, 2021-22	MER 85 @ WIN 88	WIN -4.5	MER W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mercer

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +12.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

U O

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TENN	L 61-76	+28.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 9	vsLIP	W 92-77	-3.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 61-76

+13.5

LIP

W 92-77

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +12.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 61-76

−6.5

LIP

W 92-77

+11.5

over 1under 1avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Winthrop

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

W L L

2 straight losses1 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

U O U

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsQUC	W 81-74	-3.5	W +3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 7	@GMU	L 90-96	+9.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 11	@CCU	L 66-72	-2.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

+3.5

GMU

L 90-96

+3.5

CCU

L 66-72

−8.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

−8.5

GMU

L 90-96

+39.5

CCU

L 66-72

−27.5

over 1under 2avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mercer @ Winthrop

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Mercer

Winthrop

Mercer

Winthrop