Michelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
AUB -4.5✓ AUB covered by 6.5
AUB -4.5✓ AUB covered by 6.5Closing total155.5Over by 1.5
| AUB | This season | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-0 |
| 4-1 | ATS | 0-4 |
| 5-0 | O/U | 2-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: AUB 85–74 ORE · ✓ AUB (84%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUB | 37 | 47 | 84 |
| ORE | 37 | 36 | 73 |
1st half: AUB 37, ORE 37 (tied). The model had AUB by 6.9 and a total of 74.6 (actual 74).
Team stats
| AUB | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-65 46% | Field goals | 23-61 38% |
| 5-23 22% | 3-pointers | 9-33 27% |
| 19-23 83% | Free throws | 18-23 78% |
| 34 12 off | Rebounds | 46 20 off |
| 14 | Assists | 14 |
| 12 | Steals | 3 |
| 3 | Blocks | 1 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 18 |
| 19 | Fouls | 20 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| AUB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Hall F | 36 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 5-14 | 2-7 |
| Kevin Overton G | 30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3-10 | 0-4 |
| Tahaad Pettiford G | 29 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 9-18 | 1-5 |
| Elyjah Freeman G | 29 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| KeShawn Murphy F | 18 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sebastian Williams-Adams F | 27 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Filip Jovic C | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Kaden Magwood G | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Emeka Opurum C | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Simon Walker G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Joah Shay, Drake Cardwell, CJ Williams, Abdul Bashir, Blake Muschalek, Jeremiah Bowman, Bradley Pearson, Reed Trapp
| ORE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Shelstad G | 36 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 4-17 | 1-11 |
| Nate Bittle C | 33 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 2-11 | 1-4 |
| Takai Simpkins G | 29 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 5-9 | 5-8 |
| Kwame Evans Jr. F | 28 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-3 |
| Devon Pryor G | 24 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sean Stewart F | 21 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Dez Lindsay F | 18 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Wei Lin G | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Jamari Phillips G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Ege Demir C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Oleksandr Kobzystyi, Luke Johnson, Drew Carter, Miles Stewart, Efe Vatan, JJ Frakes, Rian Gonzales
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketAUB -4.5
ModelAUB -11.2
Model edgeAUB +6.7
W AUB covered
Total
Market155.5
Model159.3
Model edgeOver 3.8
W Over
Projected score
AUB 85.2 · ORE 74.1
AUB 84 · ORE 73
Win probability
AUB 84%
1st half
Spread
AUB -6.9
tied
Total
74.6
74 points
Projected score
AUB 40.8 · ORE 33.8
AUB 37 · ORE 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenAUB -4.5
no move
CloseAUB -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open153.5
▲ 2
Close155.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
AUB -195 · ORE +165
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened AUB -4.5 · unchangedmodel AUB -11
model AUB -11
Opened 153.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 2 upmodel 159.5
model 159.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUBlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 4-1 80% | 5-0 100% |
| ORElast 4 | 4-0 100% | 0-4 0% | 2-2 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Auburn
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
4-1
80% covers · avg +4.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-0
100% overs · avg +12.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
BCU
BCUW 95-90
−19.5
6
vs
MRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+14.5
11
vs
WOF
WOFW 93-62
+3.5
16
vs
HOU
HOUL 72-73
+6.5
19
vs
JKST
JKSTW 112-66
+15.5
covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
+31.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+3.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+2.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+4.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+21.5
over 5under 0avg +12.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Oregon
4 games played
Straight up
4-0
100% wins
Against the spread
0-4
0% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-2
50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vs
HAW
HAWW 60-59
−10.5
7
vs
RICE
RICEW 67-63
−11.5
12
vs
SDST
SDSTW 83-69
−2.5
17
vs
ORST
ORSTW 87-75
−1.5
covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsHAW
HAWW 60-59
−25.5
7
vsRICE
RICEW 67-63
−15.5
12
vsSDST
SDSTW 83-69
+6.5
17
vsORST
ORSTW 87-75
+20.5
over 2under 2avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Auburn
4-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Jackson St112–66
- Lvs Houston72–73
- Wvs Wofford93–62
- Wvs Merrimack95–57
- Wvs Bethune95–90
5 days since their last game.
Oregon
4-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Oregon St87–75
- Wvs S Dakota St83–69
- Wvs Rice67–63
- Wvs Hawai'i60–59
A week or more of rest.