Suncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
BUF -5.5✓ BUF covered by 2.5
BUF -5.5✓ BUF covered by 2.5Closing total150.5Under by 2.5
 VMI | This season | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-0 |
| 1-4 | ATS | 4-0 |
| 2-3 | O/U | 3-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VMI 73–81 BUF · ✓ BUF (76%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VMI | 33 | 37 | 70 |
| BUF | 31 | 47 | 78 |
1st half: VMI 33, BUF 31 (VMI by 2). The model had BUF by 4.8 and a total of 72.4 (actual 64).
Team stats
| VMI | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-64 38% | Field goals | 21-46 46% |
| 8-34 24% | 3-pointers | 8-21 38% |
| 14-20 70% | Free throws | 28-37 76% |
| 35 15 off | Rebounds | 36 9 off |
| 8 | Assists | 11 |
| 5 | Steals | 6 |
| 1 | Blocks | 2 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 25 | Fouls | 17 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| VMI | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Johnson F | 36 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 6-21 | 6-18 |
| AJ Clark G | 27 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Tan Yildizoglu G | 25 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 5-9 | 1-4 |
| Linus Holmstrom G | 20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-4 |
| Cal Liston F | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mario Tatum Jr. G | 24 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-9 | 1-3 |
| Kaden Stuckey F | 21 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Pazon G | 14 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Walker Andrews G | 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-3 |
| Mason Hagedorn F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Alexander Daushvili, Mason Lawson, Branford Edmonds III, Robert Peters, Rickey Bradley Jr.
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Freitag G | 39 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Ryan Sabol G | 37 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 4-14 | 4-10 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 35 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 5-7 | 3-5 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 21 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Tim Oboh F | 17 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ezra McKenna F | 20 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 19 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Mikhali Pocknett F | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kyle Jones G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Evan Romano, Aleksa Vlajic, Matas Buteliauskas, Daniel Shao, Omar Migues-Hibeljic
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBUF -5.5
no move
CloseBUF -5.5
No change since the open
Total
Open150.5
no move
Close150.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
VMI +275 · BUF -345
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BUF -5.5 · unchangedmodel BUF -8
model BUF -8
Opened 150.5 · unchangedmodel 154.5
model 154.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BUF -5.5 | BUF -8.2 | BUF +2.7 | W BUF covered |
| Total | 150.5 | 154.6 | Over 4.1 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | VMI 73.2 · BUF 81.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | BUF -4.8 | VMI -2.0 |
| 1H total | 72.4 | 64 |
| 1H projected score | VMI 33.8 · BUF 38.6 | VMI 33 · BUF 31 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VMIlast 5 | 1-4 20% | 1-4 20% | 2-3 40% |
| BUFlast 4 | 4-0 100% | 4-0 100% | 3-1 75% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
VMI
5 games played
Straight up
1-4
20% wins
Against the spread
1-4
20% covers · avg −10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
@
USI
USIW 78-74
+1.5
9
@
MIZ
MIZL 68-106
−14.5
15
vs
JAX
JAXL 67-69
−0.5
19
@
RICH
RICHL 54-87
−18.5
22
@
STET
STETL 80-99
−21.5
covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
@USI
USIW 78-74
−1.5
9
@MIZ
MIZL 68-106
+12.5
15
vsJAX
JAXL 67-69
−15.5
19
@RICH
RICHL 54-87
−11.5
22
@STET
STETL 80-99
+30.5
over 2under 3avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Buffalo
4 games played
Straight up
4-0
100% wins
Against the spread
4-0
100% covers · avg +10.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-1
75% overs · avg +7.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
USM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vs
GB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@
DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vs
UVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
covered 4didn’t cover 0avg +10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
over 3under 1avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
VMI
1-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Stetson80–99
- L@ Richmond54–87
- Lvs Jacksonville67–69
- L@ Missouri68–106
- W@ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles78–74
2 days since their last game.
Buffalo
4-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Vermont94–90
- W@ DePaul66–53
- Wvs Green Bay83–76
- Wvs Southern Miss85–79
6 days since their last game.