Suncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
BGSU -11.5✓ BGSU covered by 21.5
BGSU -11.5✓ BGSU covered by 21.5Closing total148.5Under by 19.5
| BGSU | This season | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-5 |
| 3-2 | ATS | 1-5 |
| 1-4 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BGSU 82–70 VMI · ✓ BGSU (84%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU | 45 | 36 | 81 |
| VMI | 20 | 28 | 48 |
1st half: BGSU 45, VMI 20 (BGSU by 25). The model had BGSU by 7.0 and a total of 71.2 (actual 65).
Team stats
| BGSU | VMI | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-64 47% | Field goals | 10-50 20% |
| 10-26 38% | 3-pointers | 3-28 11% |
| 11-15 73% | Free throws | 25-32 78% |
| 51 20 off | Rebounds | 29 13 off |
| 20 | Assists | 3 |
| 6 | Steals | 8 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 23 | Fouls | 18 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 14 |
| 15 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| BGSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Ruffin G | 27 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Sam Towns F | 25 | 12 | 18 | 2 | 4-11 | 1-1 |
| Javontae Campbell G | 23 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 4-6 | 0-2 |
| Justin Thomas G | 21 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Troy Glover II F | 18 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mayar Wol F | 23 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 8-11 | 5-7 |
| Josiah Shackelford G | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Makhi Leach G | 16 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Jason Kimbrough G | 12 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Camden Karel F | 12 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Mohamed Maxamud F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Alijah Adem G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Christian Dedivanaj G | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Aiden Goins, Preston Squire, Jaxon Pardon, Greg Spurgin
| VMI | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Johnson F | 31 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 2-11 | 1-9 |
| AJ Clark G | 26 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Tan Yildizoglu G | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Linus Holmstrom G | 22 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
| Cal Liston F | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mario Tatum Jr. G | 29 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0-8 | 0-3 |
| Kaden Stuckey F | 20 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Pazon G | 18 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 2-10 | 0-1 |
| Walker Andrews G | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Mason Hagedorn F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Alexander Daushvili, Mason Lawson, Branford Edmonds III, Robert Peters, Rickey Bradley Jr.
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBGSU -11.5
ModelBGSU -11.4
Model edgeVMI +0.1
L BGSU covered
Total
Market148.5
Model151.9
Model edgeOver 3.4
L Under
Projected score
BGSU 81.7 · VMI 70.3
BGSU 81 · VMI 48
Win probability
BGSU 84%
1st half
Spread
BGSU -7.0
BGSU -25.0
Total
71.2
65 points
Projected score
BGSU 39.1 · VMI 32.1
BGSU 45 · VMI 20
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBGSU -10.5
1 → BGSU
CloseBGSU -11.5
1 pt toward BGSU
Total
Open150.5
▼ 2
Close148.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
BGSU -800 · VMI +500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BGSU -10.5 · closed BGSU -11.5 · moved 1 toward BGSUmodel BGSU -11.5 matches the line
model BGSU -11.5 = line ✓
Opened 150.5 · closed 148.5 · moved 2 downmodel 152
model 152
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BGSUlast 5 | 3-2 60% | 3-2 60% | 1-4 20% |
| VMIlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Bowling Green
5 games played
Straight up
3-2
60% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-4
20% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
TXST
TXSTW 83-48
+29.5
9
vs
LEM
LEMW 83-60
+11.5
15
@
DAV
DAVL 87-91
+0.5
19
vs
W&M
W&ML 74-82
−16.5
24
vs
BUCK
BUCKW 71-66
−5.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsTXST
TXSTW 83-48
−15.5
9
vsLEM
LEMW 83-60
−11.5
15
@DAV
DAVL 87-91
+33.5
19
vsW&M
W&ML 74-82
−11.5
24
vsBUCK
BUCKW 71-66
−7.5
over 1under 4avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
VMI
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
1-5
17% covers · avg −9.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
@
USI
USIW 78-74
+1.5
9
@
MIZ
MIZL 68-106
−14.5
15
vs
JAX
JAXL 67-69
−0.5
19
@
RICH
RICHL 54-87
−18.5
22
@
STET
STETL 80-99
−21.5
24
vs
BUF
BUFL 70-78
−2.5
covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
@USI
USIW 78-74
−1.5
9
@MIZ
MIZL 68-106
+12.5
15
vsJAX
JAXL 67-69
−15.5
19
@RICH
RICHL 54-87
−11.5
22
@STET
STETL 80-99
+30.5
24
vsBUF
BUFL 70-78
−2.5
over 2under 4avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Bowling Green
3-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Bucknell71–66
- Lvs William & Mary74–82
- L@ Davidson87–91
- Wvs Le Moyne83–60
- Wvs Texas St83–48
2 days since their last game.
VMI
1-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Buffalo70–78
- L@ Stetson80–99
- L@ Richmond54–87
- Lvs Jacksonville67–69
- L@ Missouri68–106
2 days since their last game.