E.A. Diddle Arena · at Western KY
Closing line
TLSA -2.5✓ WKU covered by 1.5
TLSA -2.5✓ WKU covered by 1.5Closing total158.5Over by 4.5
| TLSA | This season | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | Record | 5-3 |
| 8-1 | ATS | 5-3 |
| 6-3 | O/U | 4-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TLSA 82–79 WKU · ✓ TLSA (58%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLSA | 30 | 52 | 82 |
| WKU | 37 | 44 | 81 |
1st half: TLSA 30, WKU 37 (WKU by 7). The model had TLSA by 1.5 and a total of 75.3 (actual 67).
Team stats
| TLSA | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-53 45% | Field goals | 25-61 41% |
| 11-33 33% | 3-pointers | 12-29 41% |
| 23-32 72% | Free throws | 19-24 79% |
| 33 6 off | Rebounds | 39 10 off |
| 16 | Assists | 15 |
| 7 | Steals | 7 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 25 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| TLSA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ade Popoola G | 31 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 4-8 | 4-6 |
| Miles Barnstable G | 30 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4-8 | 3-6 |
| Tylen Riley G | 27 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 5-10 | 0-4 |
| Tyler Behrend F | 23 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| David Green F | 23 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 5-12 | 2-7 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Myles Rigsby G | 24 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-4 |
| Jaylen Lawal G | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Romad Dean F | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Ian Smikle F | 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| KJ Martin Jr. F | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Leon Sifferlin, Carter Benton, Cal Conroy, Terrance Ford Jr., Doryan Onwuchekwa
| WKU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Newell F | 34 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 8-15 | 6-8 |
| Ryan Myers G | 31 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 3-9 | 3-7 |
| Teagan Moore G | 31 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 6-11 | 0-2 |
| LJ Hackman G | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Noah Boyde C | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Armelo Boone G | 31 | 16 | 12 | 1 | 5-15 | 0-4 |
| Cam Haffner G | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Blaise Keita F | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Louie Semona III F | 10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Leeroy Odiahi F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Lawson Rice, Cade Stinnett, Kade Unseld, Jack Edelen, Bryant Selebangue, Terrion Murdix
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTLSA -2.5
ModelTLSA -2.3
Model edgeWKU +0.2
W WKU covered
Total
Market158.5
Model160.9
Model edgeOver 2.4
W Over
Projected score
TLSA 81.6 · WKU 79.3
TLSA 82 · WKU 81
Win probability
TLSA 58%
1st half
Spread
TLSA -1.5
WKU -7.0
Total
75.3
67 points
Projected score
TLSA 38.4 · WKU 36.9
TLSA 30 · WKU 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTLSA -1.5
1 → TLSA
CloseTLSA -2.5
1 pt toward TLSA
Total
Open158.5
no move
Close158.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
TLSA -142 · WKU +120
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TLSA -1.5 · closed TLSA -2.5 · moved 1 toward TLSAmodel TLSA -2.5 matches the line
model TLSA -2.5 = line ✓
Opened 158.5 · unchangedmodel 161
model 161
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLSAlast 9 | 8-1 89% | 8-1 89% | 6-3 67% |
| WKUlast 8 | 5-3 63% | 5-3 63% | 4-4 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tulsa
9 games played
Straight up
8-1
89% wins
Against the spread
8-1
89% covers · avg +10.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-3
67% overs · avg +8.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | vs URI | W 82-65 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 153.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 12 | @ ORU | W 88-87 | -5.5 | L −4.5 | 160.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 17 | @ KSU | L 83-84 | +12.5 | W +11.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs APSU | W 84-75 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs SJSU | W 81-51 | -5.5 | W +24.5 | 149.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 26 | vs UNI | W 63-60 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 137.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs MOST | W 98-74 | -7.5 | W +16.5 | 142.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | vs UAPB | W 117-84 | -25.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 201 |
| Dec 13 | vs NMSU | W 83-70 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vsURI
URIW 82-65
+20.5
12
@ORU
ORUW 88-87
−4.5
17
@KSU
KSUL 83-84
+11.5
21
vsAPSU
APSUW 84-75
+0.5
25
vsSJSU
SJSUW 81-51
+24.5
26
vsUNI
UNIW 63-60
+5.5
6
vsMOST
MOSTW 98-74
+16.5
10
vsUAPB
UAPBW 117-84
+7.5
13
vsNMSU
NMSUW 83-70
+8.5
covered 8didn’t cover 1avg +10.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsURI
URIW 82-65
−6.5
12
@ORU
ORUW 88-87
+14.5
17
@KSU
KSUL 83-84
+6.5
21
vsAPSU
APSUW 84-75
+10.5
25
vsSJSU
SJSUW 81-51
−17.5
26
vsUNI
UNIW 63-60
−14.5
6
vsMOST
MOSTW 98-74
+29.5
10
vsUAPB
UAPBW 117-84
+45.5
13
vsNMSU
NMSUW 83-70
+6.5
over 6under 3avg +8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Western KY
8 games played
Straight up
5-3
63% wins
Against the spread
5-3
63% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-4
50% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs TNTC | W 82-70 | -14.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 10 | @ EKU | W 87-79 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 16 | vs TNST | W 95-82 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 167.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs VAN | L 78-83 | +18.5 | W +13.5 | 168.5 | U 161 |
| Nov 27 | vs USF | L 91-97 | +7.5 | W +1.5 | 167.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 28 | vs WICH | W 75-70 | +4.5 | W +9.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 6 | vs EVAN | W 80-79 | -11.5 | L −10.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 10 | @ MRSH | L 61-77 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 159.5 | U 138 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsTNTC
TNTCW 82-70
−2.5
10
@EKU
EKUW 87-79
+6.5
16
vsTNST
TNSTW 95-82
+0.5
26
vsVAN
VANL 78-83
+13.5
27
vsUSF
USFL 91-97
+1.5
28
vsWICH
WICHW 75-70
+9.5
6
vsEVAN
EVANW 80-79
−10.5
10
@MRSH
MRSHL 61-77
−14.5
covered 5didn’t cover 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsTNTC
TNTCW 82-70
−1.5
10
@EKU
EKUW 87-79
+3.5
16
vsTNST
TNSTW 95-82
+9.5
26
vsVAN
VANL 78-83
−7.5
27
vsUSF
USFL 91-97
+20.5
28
vsWICH
WICHW 75-70
−10.5
6
vsEVAN
EVANW 80-79
+11.5
10
@MRSH
MRSHL 61-77
−21.5
over 4under 4avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Tulsa
8-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs New Mexico St83–70
- Wvs AR-Pine Bluff117–84
- Wvs Missouri St98–74
- Wvs Northern Iowa63–60
- Wvs San José St81–51
6 days since their last game.
Western KY
5-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Marshall61–77
- Wvs Evansville80–79
- Wvs Wichita St75–70
- Lvs South Florida91–97
- Lvs Vanderbilt78–83
A week or more of rest.