Cal State Fullerton Titans vs Northern Colorado Bears: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 2:00 PM ETChiles Center · Neutral site

#312CSUFFullerton93final

Final

#219UNCON Colorado97▲ winner

Closing lineUNCO -8.5✓ CSUF covered by 4.5

Closing total164.5Over by 25.5

Season records: Fullerton and N Colorado
CSUF	This season	UNCO
1-4	Record	2-1
2-3	ATS	3-0
3-2	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CSUF 77–86 UNCO · ✓ UNCO (79%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CSUF	33	60	93
UNCO	39	58	97

1st half: CSUF 33, UNCO 39 (UNCO by 6). The model had UNCO by 5.3 and a total of 76.6 (actual 72).

Team stats

CSUF		UNCO
32-71 45%	Field goals	27-60 45%
6-21 29%	3-pointers	9-31 29%
23-33 70%	Free throws	34-40 85%
34 9 off	Rebounds	41 8 off
10	Assists	17
4	Steals	1
2	Blocks	1
4	Turnovers	9
26	Fouls	23
48	Points in paint	36
17	Fast-break points	17

Players

CSUF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joshua Ward G	38	31	5	2	11-17	4-8
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro G	34	12	2	1	5-10	0-2
Bryce Cofield G	32	27	7	3	9-21	0-4
Christian Williams G	27	2	9	1	0-5	0-3
Kendrick De Luna F	11	3	1	2	1-1	0-0
Bench
Landon Seaman F	27	11	2	0	4-10	1-1
Jaden Henderson G	16	2	2	0	1-3	0-1
Davis White G	9	3	2	1	1-2	1-2
KJ Garris Jr. G	6	2	3	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Kidus Tilahun, Bailey Nunn, Yesan Warren, Karan Kolappa, Cam Smith, Nicholas Khatchikian, Matthew Quinlan, Ben Winker

UNCO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Zach Bloch G	35	32	3	2	9-14	7-12
Quinn Denker G	29	13	3	4	4-16	1-6
Brock Wisne F	27	15	9	2	5-7	1-2
Ibu Yamazaki F	26	10	3	3	1-3	0-1
Ring Nyeri F	21	4	7	0	2-5	0-3
Bench
Vincent Delano G	29	11	5	5	2-9	0-5
Egan Shields C	23	12	8	0	4-4	0-0
Ariik Mawien G	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Tanner Braketa G	4	0	0	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Hunter Caldwell, Walker Asp, William Humer, Chancellor White, Kaden Ericksen, Steven Ramirez Jr., Will Dixion III

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNCO -8.5	UNCO -9.1	UNCO +0.6	L CSUF covered
Total	164.5	163.6	Under 0.9	L Over
Projected score	—	CSUF 77.2 · UNCO 86.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCO -5.3	UNCO -6.0
1H total	76.6	72
1H projected score	CSUF 35.6 · UNCO 41	CSUF 33 · UNCO 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
CSUF WLLLW	2-3	40%	1-0	2-3
UNCO WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: CSUF neutral site, as underdog; UNCO neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSUF OUUOO	3-2	60%	1-4
UNCO OUO	2-1	67%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUFlast 5	1-4 20%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
UNCOlast 3	2-1 67%	3-0 100%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Fullerton

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@WYO	L 82-92	+15.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 174
Nov 10	@CAL	L 65-93	+22.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 158
Nov 15	vsPAC	L 73-85	+6.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 158
Nov 21	@PORT	L 85-103	+6.5	L −11.5	164.5	O 188
Nov 22	vsSTMN	W 88-80	+11.5	W +19.5	162.5	O 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WYO

L 82-92

+5.5

CAL

L 65-93

−5.5

PAC

L 73-85

−5.5

PORT

L 85-103

−11.5

STMN

W 88-80

+19.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WYO

L 82-92

+19.5

CAL

L 65-93

−4.5

PAC

L 73-85

−1.5

PORT

L 85-103

+23.5

STMN

W 88-80

+5.5

over 3under 2avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

N Colorado

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

3-0

100% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight covers3 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 15	@PEPP	W 88-81	-1.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 21	vsSTMN	L 72-73	+4.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 145
Nov 22	@PORT	W 86-80	-3.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 166

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PEPP

W 88-81

+5.5

STMN

L 72-73

+3.5

PORT

W 86-80

+2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PEPP

W 88-81

+15.5

STMN

L 72-73

−12.5

PORT

W 86-80

+8.5

over 2under 1avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Fullerton vs N Colorado

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Fullerton

N Colorado

Fullerton

N Colorado